In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".& They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.& Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.).&

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.).

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.

In the February 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump back into discussing winter conditions in the Southwest. This includes what happened so far in 2021 with a few runs of storms that affected parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This also includes the role that La Niña may be playing this winter (snowpack, streamflow forecasts, rain/snow events, etc.), and how this compares to previous winters and La Niña events. They also discuss what we might expect for the rest of the "wet" winter season (really, Feb-Mar) in the arid Southwest.

In the Dec 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss drought, La Nina, and what to expect (or at least hope for) in 2021. First, they recap the event that swept through on Dec 9-11, to talk through how different locations in the region fared in terms of precip.  Next, they transition into the drought situation, which is currently looking pretty dire for the region - and discuss 'just how much worse can it get' - given much of the region is at Exceptional Drought (D4, the highest category on the US Drought Monitor), looking to some past events for comparison. They wrap things up with some 2021 predictions - things they think could (or hope might) happen in 2021.

In the November episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest, including what we might expect over the next few months.  They discuss La Niña and what this might mean for the Southwest, including implications of La Niña following a much drier than average monsoon and what the historical record says about just how unprecedented this pattern might be (dry monsoon, dry winter). Finally, they take a closer look at fire, and how the season has progressed in the Southwest, given the lack of rain, and what we might watch for going into next year's fire season.

In the October 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido open up with something fun - with a quick rundown of the Monsoon Game 2020, congratulating Mike (for his CLIMAS podcast team victory, with 33 points) and Aaryn O with his overall victory (56 points). Next, they look back on the monsoon, and try to make sense of some of the reasons that might have contributed to the widespread below average (or even record driest) conditions in the Southwest. They take a closer look at some of the mechanisms that might be in play and review a few papers that address the role of climate change in a changing monsoon. Finally, they look forward (begrudgingly) at winter 2020-2021, which is lining up to be either a moderate or strong La Niña, and the discuss the implications of forecasts for a drier than average winter stacking on top of a very dry monsoon.

In the September 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on this year's monsoon.  The monsoon is not over, but at this point it is clear it will come in on the dry side of things. They discuss some of the reasons why, and how this below average monsoon compares across the region and to other years. Zack also recounts some of our Slack/text conversations about the monsoon and maps them onto the 5 stages of grief framework. They also discuss tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and talk through the monsoon game for August. There is not much on the horizon for the rest of September, but we have been surprised before, so here's hoping!