Hear from celebrated journalist David Shukman on why climate change is no longer a future risk, how extreme weather is exposing weaknesses in the systems we rely on, and why human stories are often the most powerful way to communicate climate risk.

Climate risk is often discussed in terms of future scenarios, long-term projections, and abstract global targets. But for many people, the impacts are already here: in homes lost to wildfire, hospitals disrupted by extreme heat, transport systems buckling under rising temperatures, and supply chains exposed to droughts and other weather extremes.

That shift from future risk to present reality raises difficult questions for governments, businesses, and risk professionals. Are institutions prepared for the climate we now live in? Who is responsible when critical systems fail? And how do we communicate these risks in a way that cuts through technical jargon and reaches people at a human level?

That's why today's episode will explore:

• How extreme weather is already testing the systems we rely on;

• Why recent climate events, such as heatwaves and wildfires, reveal critical gaps in preparedness and accountability;

• And why human stories about the impacts of climate change might be the most powerful way to communicate the risks and galvanize action.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Today's Speaker

David Shukman is a celebrated journalist, author, and broadcaster who spent nearly four decades at the BBC, including nine years as its first Science Editor. During his career, he reported from around the world on major global issues, including conflict, science, environmental change, and climate risk.

Since leaving the BBC in 2021, David has worked as an independent writer, speaker, and commentator on climate change, biodiversity loss, and sustainable development. This work has culminated in the recent publication of his book, 'The Response: A Story of Fire and Flood in Britain's New World of Extremes'.

Matt Winning reflects on climate fatigue, corporate engagement, and what risk professionals can learn from the art of communicating difficult topics.

Climate change is often communicated through data, models, targets and warnings. But as important as those tools are, they do not always reach people emotionally, or bring them into the conversation in a way that feels human.

That raises an interesting question: can comedy help? Not by making light of the problem, but by making it more accessible, cutting through jargon, and creating space for people to engage with a subject that can otherwise feel overwhelming.

That's why today's episode will explore:

• How comedy can act as a gateway for people who might not otherwise engage with climate change;

• Why better communication matters for firms trying to build climate awareness and engagement across their teams;

• And what risk professionals can learn from comedy about clarity, honesty and staying true to their convictions.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Today's Speaker

Dr. Matt Winning is a stand-up comedian and Lecturer in Economics of Sustainability at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources. Matt previously served as Head of Climate Research at Oxford Economics and has spent more than a decade researching climate policy, energy transitions, climate finance and sustainability.

He is also one of the world's leading climate comedians. He wrote the book Hot Mess: What on Earth Can We Do About Climate Change? and has performed many climate-focused comedy shows, including at COP28 and the Edinburgh Fringe, as well as appearing on many BBC radio and television programmes. Combining academic expertise with humour, Matt focuses on helping audiences engage with climate change in ways that are accessible, informative and entertaining.

Hear from Prof. Tom Gosling, Director of the Initiative in Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE), as we examine the limits of investor-led climate action, the realities of stewardship and engagement, and why finance may need a more pragmatic approach to the transition.

Over recent years, investors have been asked to play a central role in driving the net zero transition. Through targets, stewardship, portfolio commitments and engagement, the idea was that finance could help push the real economy towards decarbonization.

But what if that framing overstates what investors can realistically achieve? If real-world incentives are still misaligned, and if policy remains the primary driver of economic change, then investor climate action may need to become more focused, more realistic, and more honest about its limits.

That's why this episode will explore:

• Why the current model of investor climate action has run into difficulty, particularly around targets and portfolio emissions;

• What more effective stewardship might look like when it focuses on achievable, real-world impact rather than headline commitments;

• And why asset owners, asset managers and risk professionals may need to rethink their roles as climate risk becomes more politically contested and physically material.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Today's Speaker

Professor Tom Gosling is Director of the Initiative in Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also a member of the Financial Conduct Authority's Sustainable Finance Advisory Committee.

With more than 20 years' experience as a board adviser, including as a senior Partner at PwC where he established and led the firm's executive pay practice, he brings deep expertise across corporate governance, responsible investing, investor stewardship and sustainable finance.

Hear from Kingsmill Bond, Senior Energy Strategist at Ember, as we explore why renewables and electrification are reshaping the global energy system faster than many realise.

We talk a great deal on this podcast about the risks and the policy challenges of the climate transition. But if that transition is actually going to happen — and happen at the speed that the science demands — there is something that has to sit at its very centre. Not the frameworks, not the disclosure requirements, not the net zero targets. The actual physical transformation of how we generate and use energy. The growth of renewables. The electrification of the things we use every day: our cars, our heating, our industry. Without that, everything else is commentary.

So where do things actually stand? How fast is the transition really moving? What does the data tell us that the mainstream forecasts might have overlooked? And in a world of geopolitical turbulence, rising energy security concerns, and significant political headwinds, what are the barriers still standing between where we are and where we need to get to?

This episode attempts to answer those questions. We'll be covering:

• Why flows matter more than stocks — and what the data tells us about how fast the transition is really moving

• The geopolitical energy shocks of the 2020s, what makes them different from the 1970s, and why this time we actually have solutions

• And what all of this means practically for risk professionals trying to get ahead of the transition rather than simply react to it

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Today's Speaker

Kingsmill Bond is Senior Energy Strategist at Ember, an open data think tank that has been tracking the growth of renewable energy and its impact on the global electricity system.

Kingsmill spent years as a financial analyst and strategist at some of the world's leading investment banks before making the transition to energy. This has seen him working at Carbon Tracker and the Rocky Mountain Institute before his move to Ember.

Hear from Richard Flemmings, founder and CEO of Map Impact, as we explore why "dry perils" such as heat, drought and wildfire are emerging as critical climate risks for real estate and financial decision-making. When climate risks are discussed, the focus often falls on what we might call "wet perils": things like flooding, storms, and coastal erosion. These risks are well studied, widely modelled, and increasingly embedded in financial decision-making. But another category of hazards is emerging: "dry perils" such as heat stress, drought, and wildfire, which are often less visible, hard to quantify, and in many cases still underestimated. Understanding these risks requires looking closely at the landscape itself: how land is used, how heat is retained, and how nature can either amplify or mitigate climate hazards. And when you do that, some unexpected interactions between the built environment and a changing climate start to emerge. That's why this episode explores:

• Why dry perils have been underestimated, and why they are becoming increasingly important for financial risk management;
• How real-world case studies reveal unanticipated consequences of climate risk and adaptation decisions;
• And how nature-based solutions, from urban greening to landscape-scale interventions, can help build resilience across portfolios and communities.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

To see more of our resources on climate and nature risk, visit GARP's Risk Insights: https://www.garp.org/risk-insights

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Richard Flemmings is founder and CEO of Map Impact, a climate and environmental risk analytics firm providing bottom-up analysis of dry-perils and biodiversity. With more than 20 years' experience applying satellite earth observation and geospatial technologies across government, engineering, and NGO clients, he specializes in translating environmental data into practical insights for housing, resilience building, and climate adaptation.

Hear from Søren Elbech, Chief Risk Officer at the Inter-American Development Bank, as we explore how development banks use risk to support countries facing climate and other systemic challenges.

When we think about risk in banking, the focus is often on managing exposures, pricing credit, allocating capital, and ensuring resilience. But what happens when the mission of a bank is not just to manage risk, but to actively take it on in order to improve lives?

In that context, risk becomes something to be deployed — carefully, deliberately, and often in parts of the world where private markets are unwilling or unable to go. This is the role that development banks are designed to play. And increasingly, it means engaging directly with systemic risks like climate change, which shape both economic stability and the resilience of communities.

That's why this episode explores:

• How a development bank's model differs fundamentally from a commercial bank, and how mechanisms like preferred creditor status enable lending in higher-risk environments;

• What it means to treat risk as an enabler;

• And how innovative financial structures, from debt-for-nature swaps to climate-linked bonds, can help countries build resilience to climate and other systemic risks.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Speaker's Bio

Søren Elbech is Chief Risk Officer at the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), a mission-driven institution focused on improving lives across Latin America and the Caribbean.

With more than 30 years' experience across global capital markets and development finance — including senior roles at J.P. Morgan and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — he brings deep expertise in both international finance and mission-led risk management.

Hear from Sian Williams, Chief Risk Officer at Triodos Bank UK, as we examine how values-led banking can generate positive impact for people, planet and the financial system.

When we think about sustainable finance, the conversation often revolves around targets, disclosures and voluntary alliances. But what happens when sustainability is not an add-on, but the foundation of a bank's entire business model?

If sustainability is the starting point, lending decisions inevitably look different, and more complex. Not everything can be reduced to a model. Challenging trade-offs between risk, return and impact emerge. And judgment, values and governance play a much larger role in determining which activities are financed, and which are not.

In this episode, we explore:

• The real-world positive impact that a mission-driven bank can generate for communities, climate and nature;

• How balancing risk, return and impact shapes lending decisions in practice, and what that means for the bank's governance and internal decision-making;

• And whether the model of values-led banking is truly scalable — or whether its greatest influence lies in demonstrating what is possible for the wider financial system.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Today's Speaker

Sian Williams is Chief Risk Officer at Triodos Bank UK, a mission-driven institution that seeks to balance profit with people and planet.

With more than 30 years' experience in finance, including senior risk and compliance roles at Lloyds Bank, and as a banking supervisor at the Bank of England and Financial Services Authority, she brings deep expertise across traditional banking, mission-driven finance and regulation.

Hear from Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management, as we explore how interconnected risks spanning climate, nature, inequality and AI challenge traditional approaches to risk and return.

In investing, we spend a lot of time debating alpha — what gives one portfolio an edge over another. But increasingly, the bigger question is about beta, and the underlying conditions that make any returns possible in the first place. And here we can think about a stable climate, nature as infrastructure and even social cohesion and functioning institutions.

Because when those foundations erode, risk stops looking like a set of isolated exposures, and starts to look like something deeper – perhaps systemic instability, cascading impacts, and rising uncertainty that no single firm can diversify away.

That's why in this episode we explore:

· Why some investors are starting to think more seriously about "protecting the beta", and what that means for portfolio risk and long-term resilience;

· How nature risk, climate risk, and inequality interact — with inequality not only as an outcome of shocks, but as a potential driver of fragility and political instability;

· And the tools that can help risk professionals make complex, interconnected risks more legible from scenario modelling to frameworks that build a shared language inside organisations.

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To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

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Speaker's Bio

Julie Calkins, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management

Julie Calkins serves as the Director of Sustainability Strategy at Generation Investment Management since April 2022. Previously, Calkins operated as an Advisor for an independent consultancy firm, CDAX, managing projects for notable clients including the US Climate Alliance Partnership and OECD Global Science Forum from January 2017 to April 2022.

Prior roles include Head of Climate Risk and Adaptation at Climate-KIC, a Research and Policy Fellow at Wellcome Trust, and a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Leeds/National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Calkins has also worked as a Monitoring Scientist for NOAA and an Antarctic Scientist for the US Antarctic Program. Academic credentials include a PhD in Environmental Science and Health from the University of York and an MS in Geochemistry from New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

With a background spanning environmental science, disaster risk, and global policy, Julie brings a rare systems-level perspective to sustainable investing.

Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the past year of the Climate Risk Podcast.

As we head into 2026, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2025's podcasts.

After 6 years of hosting the podcast, this might be the most wide-ranging conversation so far – from how one should adjust probability of default for climate risk, to the risk factors that might lead to the collapse of society.

To make things a bit more manageable, this retrospective has been split into three main areas of focus:

• First, what did we learn about physical risks, both from nature loss and climate change?
• Second, what did we learn about the transition to net zero?
• And third, what lessons were there for firms – either in risk management or business more generally?

We also hear from our guests on advice they have specifically for risk professionals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links to featured episodes:

• Sebastian Leape - The CSRD Effect: How Regulation is Elevating Nature Risk
• Eva Zabey - Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals' Guide to the Biodiversity COPs
• Prof. Aled Jones - Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy
• Dr. Levke Caesar - Nine Limits, Six Breached: The Planetary Boundaries Crisis Explained
• Alyssa Gilbert - How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success
• Laurie Laybourn - Beyond 1.5°C: How to Think About Our New Climate Reality
• Stephanie Race - Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal
• Rowan Douglas - Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk
• Dr. Ajay Gambhir - Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis
• Hirotaka Hideshima - From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker's Take on Nature Risk
• Prof. Tim Lenton OBE - Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis
• Judson Berkey - Embedding Nature Risk: Insights from a Senior Banking Professional
• Dr. Luke Kemp - Societal Collapse in a Warming World: A Risk Manager's Lens

Today's Speakers

Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo's focus to date on climate- and nature-related risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience.

Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK's first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing.

Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP's research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate- and nature-related financial risk management.

She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD about how best to apply probability theory to real world problems.

Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future.

When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there's a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse?

That's why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss:

· What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it's rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures;

· How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit;

· And what a real-world "collapse risk dashboard" might look like for societies.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from the discussion:

• Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321192/goliaths-curse-by-kemp-luke/9780241741238

Speaker's Bio

Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge

Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.