In this special episode, revisit this conversation with Prof. Tim Benton, as we remind ourselves of the devastating potential of the tail risks from climate change.

Our regular listeners will know that we usually to take a break from the podcast in August. But every once in a while, in this fast-moving field of climate and sustainability, it’s helpful to pause and reflect on where we’ve been, what we’ve learned, and how far we’ve come.

That’s why we’re re-releasing this episode from the archives, and revisiting a conversation that’s just as relevant today - if not more so - than when it first aired in late 2021.

This conversation about the tail risks from climate change left a huge impression on us at the GARP Risk Institute. The framing of climate risk as non-linear, deeply complex, and capable of amplifying other risks from food insecurity to political instability, was enormously influential on the direction of this podcast.

Today, where the window for an orderly transition is rapidly narrowing, it’s all the more important that we remember the extent of the risks posed by climate change. This episode explores:

• Why the risks associated with even 2.0◦C warming are greater than you might think;
• How climate risks are transmitted through, and amplified by, our interconnected economy; and
• How risk professionals can best prepare for the complex and unpredictable risks of climate change.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from the discussion:

• Climate change risk assessment 2021: Chatham House’s research publication detailing the consequences and systemic cascading risks likely from climate change - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climate-change-risk-assessment-2021
• UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report: The UK Climate Change Committee’s independent analysis of the risks and opportunities for the UK - https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-of-uk-climate-risk/

Speaker’s Bio

Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology, University of Leeds

Tim’s research spans food security, sustainability, climate change, ecology, and systemic and interacting risks. Formerly, he was a Distinguished Fellow and Research Director at Chatham House, Environment and Society Centre, working on range of projects about how environmental risks interact with human systems.

From 2011 to 2016, Tim was the ‘champion’ of the UK’s Global Food Security programme. He has also been a contributing author for the IPCC and has more than 150 published academic papers to his name. 

Hear from Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO of Climate Risk and Resilience at Howden Group, as we explore the vital role of insurance in the climate transition.

When we talk about climate resilience, insurance often flies under the radar. But it’s one of the oldest and most powerful tools we have for managing risk: pooling resources, spreading losses, and crucially, sending signals about where risk is growing too great to bear.

That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and evolving role of insurance in supporting climate resilience. We discuss:

• How insurance acts as both a safety net for businesses and communities, and a driver of risk reduction and adaptation;
• The concept of “insurability,” and what it reveals about our growing exposure to climate risk; and
• How these dynamics are playing out in the real world, through a case study of climate risks facing Europe’s agricultural sector.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Ex-CEO of Allianz Investment Management Günther Thallinger - “The math breaks down” quote: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/climate-risk-insurance-future-capitalism-g%C3%BCnther-thallinger-smw5f/
• GARP Natural Catastrophe Modelling Masterclass (for SCR® Certificate Holders): https://www.garp.org/scr/catastrophe-modeling-masterclass
• The Insurability Imperative: Using Insurance to Navigate the Climate Transition: https://www.howdengroup.com/uk-en/insurability-climate-report-2025
• Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU: https://www.howdengroupholdings.com/news/eu-agriculture-faces-28-billion-annual-average-loss-from-extreme-weather
• Video summary of Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU report: https://www.fi-compass.eu/videos/interviews/insurance-and-access-finance-farm-resilience-and-adaptation-eu

Speaker’s Bio

Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO Climate Risk and Resilience, Howden Group

Prior to joining Howden, Rowan held a number of senior roles at Willis Towers Watson, including as Head of their Climate and Resilience Hub, and also at Willis Re, where he was CEO of Global Analytics. Until recently, he was also Chair of the Operating Committee of the Insurance Development Forum, a role he began in 2015, which focused on driving resilience in communities, business, and public institutions through insurance.

Rowan holds a Bachelor’s in Geography from Durham University, and an MPhil in Geographical Sciences from the University of Bristol.

Hear from Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence for the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, as we explore what it truly means to put sustainability first.

Turning climate ambition into reality is a complicated process. Sustainability often requires systemic change, which is precisely why it can be so challenging. That’s why in this episode, we’re hoping to inspire and encourage our audience with the story of the greening of one of the largest and most watched events in the world: the Olympic and Paralympic Games. We explore:

• How clear targets and innovative procurement strategies helped deliver on ambitious climate goals;
• Why systems-thinking and good governance were critical to aligning decisions with long-term objectives;
• And what risk professionals can learn from this experience to apply in their own organizations, particularly around resilience, efficiency, and driving change at scale.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Speaker’s Bio

Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence, Paris 2024 Organising Committee for the Olympic and Paralympic Games

Georgina has had a long and varied career in energy and sustainability across the public and private sectors. She began her career in oil and gas, before moving into renewable energy and innovation.

She worked at the French Ministry of Ecology and Energy, where she supported the development of renewable energy policies and markets. She later became a Director at ENGIE Group, a French multinational electric utility company, before joining the Organizing Committee of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2018.

Hear from Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO of Earth Analytics Group, as we dive into the connections between physical climate risk, the global food supply chain, and systemic financial risk.

As climate impacts intensify - from wildfires to water scarcity - these risks are no longer distant. They’re material, and they’re here to stay. This is most evident in our food system, where disrupted crop yields, shifting growing regions, and stressed supply chains are becoming the new normal. 

That’s why in this episode, we explore the vital and often overlooked links between climate change, food systems, and financial risk, including: 

• How biophysical shocks like drought, fire, and flooding are cascading through supply chains and challenging economic stability; 

• Why nature-based solutions are key to building real-world resilience - not just for farmers, but for the financial system as a whole; 

• And how risk professionals can lead the transition by rethinking how we value, insure, and invest in a changing world. 

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Earth Analytics Group homepage: https://www.earthanalyticsgroup.com/
• DEFRA Stewardship Schemes: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/countryside-stewardship-get-funding-to-protect-and-improve-the-land-you-manage
• USDA NRCS Stewardship Program: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs-initiatives/csp-conservation-stewardship-program

Speaker’s Bio

Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO, Earth Analytics Group

Earth Analytics Group is a global environmental informatics firm, helping businesses adapt by integrating nature into financial decision-making. 

Stephanie is a business leader, entrepreneur and scientist with over 30 years’ experience transforming global food and agriculture supply chains, and restoring ecosystems to balance nature, people and markets. 

She previously held a number of senior roles, including as Partner at Accenture, leading the Analytics Practice for Food, Consumer Products & Retail.  

Hear from Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative, as we explore how climate risks change in a 1.5°C world.

As we look increasingly certain to breach 1.5 degrees of warming, we are entering an era defined not just by extreme weather and policy uncertainty, but also by cascading disruptions, systemic instability, and the potential for tipping points in both the environment and society. That’s why in this episode, we take a hard look at how our understanding of climate risk needs to evolve. We explore:

• Why traditional climate risk frameworks may be missing a third, critical dimension, namely derailment risk;
• How scenario planning can help institutions prepare for destabilizing futures;
• And what risk professionals can do to improve climate risk assessments and build real resilience in the face of escalating shocks.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports: https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
• Strategic Climate Risk Initiative (SCRI) homepage: https://www.scri.org.uk/

Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative

Laurie is an award-winning researcher, policy advisor, writer and strategist. He is also an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and holds fellowships at the Institute for Public Policy Research and the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter.

Hear from Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Innovation at the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, as we dive into the climate startup ecosystem.

Innovation can provide powerful responses to environmental risks, from AI tools predicting the spread of wildfires in real time, to seaweed-based packaging replacing plastic at mass scale. But in fact, innovation means more than just inventing new technologies – it also means changing the ways we do business today, and helping connect these solutions with the people who can best make use of them. That’s why in today’s episode, we’re diving into the climate innovation ecosystem. We explore:

• The challenges and opportunities for early-stage climate startups, from scaling to securing investment;
• How business model innovation is just as crucial as new technology in creating real-world impact; and
• What risk professionals can do to engage with, and support, climate innovators.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/
• Undaunted: https://undaunted-hq.org/
• Notpla - Sustainable Packaging Made from Seaweed: https://www.notpla.com/

Alyssa Gilbert, Director of Innovation, Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London

Alyssa leads a team focused on developing research, innovations, and talent to address environmental challenges. Alyssa played a key role in setting up the COP26 Universities Network to tackle climate change. Previously, she worked in policy design and evaluation services at Ecofys, covering areas like emissions trading, carbon pricing, and climate finance. Alyssa has extensive experience working on environmental and climate change issues in various countries and has a background in journalism and research.

Hear from Dr. Levke Caeser of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, as we dive into the planetary boundaries framework and the risks of overstepping the limits of earth systems.

Planetary boundaries are the biological and physical limits that define a “safe operating space” for humanity on Earth. But today, many of these limits – including those related to land, freshwater, climate, and biodiversity – have been dangerously exceeded. As a result, we’re now entering uncharted territory.

So in today’s episode, we’ll be exploring the consequences of breaching these limits, and how we might get ourselves back on track. We’ll discuss:

• The science and selection process behind the planetary boundaries framework;
• Why we have failed to govern these global risks; and
• What actions can now be taken to correct our course and mitigate the risks.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion

• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK): https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/home
• PIK Planetary Boundaries Science Lab: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/institute/labs/pbscience
• Climate Tipping Points Explained: https://www.garp.org/risk-intelligence/sustainability-climate/climate-tipping-points-250106

Dr. Levke Caeser, Co-Lead for Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Levke is a climate scientist specializing in Earth system dynamics and planetary boundaries science. Her work focuses on understanding the impacts of human activities on global systems, with a particular emphasis on ocean circulation, climate tipping points, and sustainability. Dr. Caesar is co-leading the Planetary Boundaries Science team (PBScience), contributing to advancing the representation of Earth's systems in global frameworks. She combines expertise in data analysis, interdisciplinary collaboration, and science communication to drive impactful research and foster innovative solutions for global environmental challenges.

Hear from Prof. Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, as we dive into the role of models in shaping policy, and particularly their weaknesses. 

Models are not neutral – they reflect the assumptions, values, and agendas of those that create and use them. Using the energy system as an example, models can (and have been) used to protect the status quo. In part, this is because many of the models are based on the notions of ‘equilibrium’ and so they simply can’t cope with major structural changes, such as the current energy transition. But it can be difficult for policy makers to switch towards models that are arguably more suited to the job.

So, what can we do to supplement the models? One very effective approach is to adopt a structured process of expert elicitation, where we use the insights of experts to uncover vulnerabilities and risks. To bring it to life, we explore how this has worked in the case of the food system. We discuss:

• The role that models play in shaping energy policy, and how they can lead us astray;
• How expert judgment and insight can help address model blind spots; and
• Finally, what are the key lessons for risk professionals?

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Global Sustainability Institute homepage: https://www.aru.ac.uk/global-sustainability-institute-gsi
• Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency Report: https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/
• GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-power-and-pitfalls-of-models-in-climate-risk-management

Prof. Aled Jones, Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University

Aled’s work in climate finance was recognised by California and he has received a key to the city of North Little Rock, USA. He is a Co-Investigator on the ESRC Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, the AHRC Debating Nature’s Value network, the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project and leads the BBSRC Backcasting to Achieve Food Resilience in the UK project. He was lead author on the seminal report on resource constraints to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2013, was made an Honorary Fellow in 2018 and currently chairs their Biodiversity Working Party.

Hear from Eva Zabey, CEO of Business for Nature, as we dive into the complex landscape of environmental diplomacy, and the role of business in halting and reversing biodiversity loss.

We know that our economies depend on nature. But with biodiversity loss and climate change both putting pressure on ecosystems, businesses and financial institutions are facing increasing risks. In recognition of this, there is action on the policy front, and with global biodiversity agreements taking shape, the question isn’t whether firms should act – but how they can do so effectively.

That’s why in this episode, we dive into the role of business and finance in halting and reversing biodiversity loss, along with some practical steps firms can take to integrate nature into their strategies. We discuss:

• The evolving policy landscape, including key takeaways from recent biodiversity COPs;
• The challenges financial firms face in measuring their impacts and dependencies on nature; and
• The tools and frameworks that can help firms take action.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today’s discussion:

• Business for Nature: https://www.businessfornature.org/
• Nigel Topping on the GARP Climate Risk Podcast: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-cop28-survival-guide-how-it-works-and-what-to-expect
• Global Biodiversity Framework: https://www.cbd.int/gbf
• Science Based Targets Network (SBTN): https://sciencebasedtargets.org/about-us/sbtn
• Nature Action 100: https://www.natureaction100.org/
• Finance for Biodiversity Foundation: https://www.financeforbiodiversity.org/

Eva Zabey, CEO, Business for Nature

Eva leads Business for Nature, a global coalition aiming to unify the business voice to call for action to reverse nature loss and restore the planet’s vital natural systems on which economies, wellbeing and prosperity depend. Previously, Eva led multiple projects at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) for 15 years, including leading work on natural, social and human capital measurement, valuation for business decision-making towards integrated performance management, and reporting for investors. She led the development of the Natural Capital Protocol on behalf of the Natural Capital Coalition, as well as the establishment of the new Social and Human Capital Coalition.

Eva holds a bachelor’s degree in Ecology from Imperial College London and a master’s degree in Environmental Management from the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). In 2012, she completed a University of London on-line course on Environmental Valuation Techniques and delivered a TEDx Talk on valuing nature in business.

Hear from Sebastian Leape, CEO of Natcap, as we explore how regulation such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is pushing nature risk to the top of firms’ sustainability agendas.

At GARP, we’ve been benchmarking financial firms’ climate and nature risk management capabilities since 2019, and we see that nature is lagging climate risk by several years. But things are changing, and part of that change is driven by new regulations – such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive or CSRD – where firms are being asked to report on a range of sustainability issues in a lot more depth than they’re used to.

Given the complexity, this episode provides a deep dive into some of the challenges facing firms. We discuss:

• Why nature is lagging climate in both understanding and action;
• The key emerging nature-related regulations and how they fit together; and
• Some useful ways for firms to begin tackling these issues.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Sebastian Leape, CEO, Natcap

Seb leads the team at Natcap, a nature intelligence firm on a mission to embed nature into business decision making by helping companies measure, report and act on their nature related impacts and dependencies.

Seb’s career has been focused on trying to make our economic system more sustainable. He has worked as a sustainability consultant at McKinsey, helping businesses and governments define and embed climate and nature goals, and also as a policy advisor, teacher, and researcher.