Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the past year of the Climate Risk Podcast.

As we head into 2026, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2025's podcasts.

After 6 years of hosting the podcast, this might be the most wide-ranging conversation so far – from how one should adjust probability of default for climate risk, to the risk factors that might lead to the collapse of society.

To make things a bit more manageable, this retrospective has been split into three main areas of focus:

• First, what did we learn about physical risks, both from nature loss and climate change?
• Second, what did we learn about the transition to net zero?
• And third, what lessons were there for firms – either in risk management or business more generally?

We also hear from our guests on advice they have specifically for risk professionals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links to featured episodes:

• Sebastian Leape - The CSRD Effect: How Regulation is Elevating Nature Risk
• Eva Zabey - Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals' Guide to the Biodiversity COPs
• Prof. Aled Jones - Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy
• Dr. Levke Caesar - Nine Limits, Six Breached: The Planetary Boundaries Crisis Explained
• Alyssa Gilbert - How to Make an Impact: Secrets to Climate Startup Success
• Laurie Laybourn - Beyond 1.5°C: How to Think About Our New Climate Reality
• Stephanie Race - Why Food System Disruption Is the New Normal
• Rowan Douglas - Resilience and Retreat: What Insurability Tells Us About Climate Risk
• Dr. Ajay Gambhir - Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis
• Hirotaka Hideshima - From Basel to Biodiversity: An Ex-Central Banker's Take on Nature Risk
• Prof. Tim Lenton OBE - Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis
• Judson Berkey - Embedding Nature Risk: Insights from a Senior Banking Professional
• Dr. Luke Kemp - Societal Collapse in a Warming World: A Risk Manager's Lens

Today's Speakers

Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo's focus to date on climate- and nature-related risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience.

Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK's first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing.

Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP's research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate- and nature-related financial risk management.

She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD about how best to apply probability theory to real world problems.

Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future.

When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there's a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse?

That's why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss:

· What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it's rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures;

· How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit;

· And what a real-world "collapse risk dashboard" might look like for societies.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from the discussion:

• Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321192/goliaths-curse-by-kemp-luke/9780241741238

Speaker's Bio

Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge

Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.

Hear from Judson Berkey, Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS, as we learn first-hand how banks are approaching nature risk.

Within finance, nature is usually treated as background: important, but invisible. However, that is beginning to change. New frameworks, regulations, and expectations are emerging worldwide, and many firms are starting to measure their impacts and dependencies on nature.

In this episode, we explore how that shift is happening from the perspective of someone inside one of the world's largest banks. We discuss:

• Which lessons from climate disclosure apply to nature, and which do not;
• Why some regulatory approaches to ESG-type topics are more effective than others; and
• The importance of not waiting for perfect data before taking action.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Speaker's Bio

Judson Berkey, Managing Director, Chief Sustainability Office, UBS

Judson is a Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS based in Zurich where he has worked since 2003 on global risk, regulatory and compliance topics. He currently focuses on sustainable finance policy and regulation including engagement with policymakers and standard setters. He also leads UBS work on nature. He graduated from Harvard Law School and the University of Virginia and is on the board of ECOFACT. He currently chairs the Institute of International Finance Sustainable Finance Working Group and represents UBS on the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures and Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Steering Group.

Hear from Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, as we explore the potential of positive tipping points in accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy.

What happens when the conversation about climate change shifts from avoiding disaster to unlocking positive change? Suddenly, it's not just about risk - it's about momentum. Because while some systems may be close to dangerous tipping points, others – like clean energy, electric transport, and sustainable food – are tipping in the right direction.

That's why in this episode, we explore how to accelerate those positive shifts, including:

· How smart policies can trigger widespread, self-reinforcing change across economies and societies;

· Why leveraging social norms and human behavior is just as critical as investing in technology;

· And what it takes to create the tipping points that move us toward a stable climate, not away from one.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today's discussion:

• Tim's previous podcast appearance - https://www.garp.org/podcast/complexities-climate-risk-cr-201102
• Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis - https://academic.oup.com/book/60007
• Global Tipping Points Report 2025 - https://global-tipping-points.org/

Speaker's Bio

Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, Founding Director, Global Systems Institute, and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter

Tim is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions.

Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for 'positive tipping points' that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The 'Global Tipping Points Report' produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28.

Hear from Hirotaka Hideshima, former central banker and member of the TNFD, as we explore the parallels between financial risk, nature risk and regulation.

What happens when a central banker steps into the world of nature risk? Well, they can see parallels between financial risk and nature risk that aren't obvious to others. For example, just as the global financial crisis exposed systemic vulnerabilities in banking, nature loss poses systemic risks that today's models and disclosures struggle to capture.

And although the Basel framework and the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) recommendations are very different, they do share one key underlying objective — that is, to internalize externalities that markets fail to price. In this episode, we explore what a 30-year career in financial regulation can tell us about nature risk, including:

• Why risk professionals must consider the long-term materiality of nature risk, even when short-term impacts may appear limited;
• Practical first steps for incorporating nature into credit risk processes and operational resilience planning; and
• The role of qualitative judgment when models cannot fully capture environmental externalities.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today's discussion:

• Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) homepage: https://tnfd.global/
• Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) homepage: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/index.htm
• World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report 2025: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/

Speaker's Bio

Hirotaka Hideshima, Fellow, Global Intelligence & Sustainability Unit, Dai-ichi Life Holdings

Before joining Dai-ichi Life, Hirotaka served as Counsellor on Global Strategy to the President and Board of Directors at the Norinchukin Bank, where he became actively involved in the work of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures.

Hirotaka spent over 30 years at the Bank of Japan, where he represented the Bank on the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, co-chaired the development of Basel III's definition of regulatory capital, and helped design the G-SIB assessment framework.

Hear from Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, as we reconsider systemic risk in an increasingly interconnected world.

When we think about climate risk, it's easy to focus on individual threats - rising sea levels, extreme weather events, or biodiversity loss. But in reality, these risks are part of a larger, interconnected web of crises. Climate change interacts with geopolitical tensions, pandemics, food insecurity, and energy shocks, often creating feedback loops that can strain or even break the systems we depend on. That's why in this episode, we explore the concept of the "polycrisis," including:

· Why understanding the connections between risks is key to managing them;

· How a new systemic risk framework can reveal vulnerabilities across critical systems like food, energy, and health;

· And why addressing inequality is essential if we want to strengthen resilience and meet climate and sustainability goals.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today's discussion:

• ASRA homepage: https://www.asranetwork.org/
• GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Alyssa Gilbert: https://www.garp.org/podcast/how-to-make-an-impact-secrets-to-climate-startup-success
• GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: https://www.garp.org/podcast/flawed-models-fragile-systems-the-risks-in-energy-food-policy
• Mike Berners-Lee, A Climate of Truth: https://climateoftruth.co.uk/
• A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62029-w
• Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: https://www.kateraworth.com/
• Cascade Institute homepage: https://cascadeinstitute.org/

Speaker's Bio(s)

Dr. Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment, ASRA

The Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA) is an independent non-profit initiative that aims to mainstream systemic risk assessment in policy and decision-making. Ajay leads on ASRA's approach to assessing systemic risks, as well as identifying and curating supporting data, evidence and models.

In addition to this role, Ajay is also a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College London, where he previously worked on climate change mitigation, the energy transition and associated risks, leading a team on integrated assessment modelling of low-carbon development pathways.

In this special episode, revisit this conversation with Prof. Tim Benton, as we remind ourselves of the devastating potential of the tail risks from climate change.

Our regular listeners will know that we usually to take a break from the podcast in August. But every once in a while, in this fast-moving field of climate and sustainability, it's helpful to pause and reflect on where we've been, what we've learned, and how far we've come.

That's why we're re-releasing this episode from the archives, and revisiting a conversation that's just as relevant today - if not more so - than when it first aired in late 2021.

This conversation about the tail risks from climate change left a huge impression on us at the GARP Risk Institute. The framing of climate risk as non-linear, deeply complex, and capable of amplifying other risks from food insecurity to political instability, was enormously influential on the direction of this podcast.

Today, where the window for an orderly transition is rapidly narrowing, it's all the more important that we remember the extent of the risks posed by climate change. This episode explores:

• Why the risks associated with even 2.0◦C warming are greater than you might think;
• How climate risks are transmitted through, and amplified by, our interconnected economy; and
• How risk professionals can best prepare for the complex and unpredictable risks of climate change.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from the discussion:

• Climate change risk assessment 2021: Chatham House's research publication detailing the consequences and systemic cascading risks likely from climate change - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climate-change-risk-assessment-2021
• UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report: The UK Climate Change Committee's independent analysis of the risks and opportunities for the UK - https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-of-uk-climate-risk/

Speaker's Bio

Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology, University of Leeds

Tim's research spans food security, sustainability, climate change, ecology, and systemic and interacting risks. Formerly, he was a Distinguished Fellow and Research Director at Chatham House, Environment and Society Centre, working on range of projects about how environmental risks interact with human systems.

From 2011 to 2016, Tim was the 'champion' of the UK's Global Food Security programme. He has also been a contributing author for the IPCC and has more than 150 published academic papers to his name.

Hear from Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO of Climate Risk and Resilience at Howden Group, as we explore the vital role of insurance in the climate transition.

When we talk about climate resilience, insurance often flies under the radar. But it's one of the oldest and most powerful tools we have for managing risk: pooling resources, spreading losses, and crucially, sending signals about where risk is growing too great to bear.

That's why in this episode, we explore the vital and evolving role of insurance in supporting climate resilience. We discuss:

• How insurance acts as both a safety net for businesses and communities, and a driver of risk reduction and adaptation;
• The concept of "insurability," and what it reveals about our growing exposure to climate risk; and
• How these dynamics are playing out in the real world, through a case study of climate risks facing Europe's agricultural sector.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today's discussion:

• Ex-CEO of Allianz Investment Management Günther Thallinger - "The math breaks down" quote: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/climate-risk-insurance-future-capitalism-g%C3%BCnther-thallinger-smw5f/
• GARP Natural Catastrophe Modelling Masterclass (for SCR® Certificate Holders): https://www.garp.org/scr/catastrophe-modeling-masterclass
• The Insurability Imperative: Using Insurance to Navigate the Climate Transition: https://www.howdengroup.com/uk-en/insurability-climate-report-2025
• Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU: https://www.howdengroupholdings.com/news/eu-agriculture-faces-28-billion-annual-average-loss-from-extreme-weather
• Video summary of Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU report: https://www.fi-compass.eu/videos/interviews/insurance-and-access-finance-farm-resilience-and-adaptation-eu

Speaker's Bio

Rowan Douglas CBE, CEO Climate Risk and Resilience, Howden Group

Prior to joining Howden, Rowan held a number of senior roles at Willis Towers Watson, including as Head of their Climate and Resilience Hub, and also at Willis Re, where he was CEO of Global Analytics. Until recently, he was also Chair of the Operating Committee of the Insurance Development Forum, a role he began in 2015, which focused on driving resilience in communities, business, and public institutions through insurance.

Rowan holds a Bachelor's in Geography from Durham University, and an MPhil in Geographical Sciences from the University of Bristol.

Hear from Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence for the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, as we explore what it truly means to put sustainability first.

Turning climate ambition into reality is a complicated process. Sustainability often requires systemic change, which is precisely why it can be so challenging. That's why in this episode, we're hoping to inspire and encourage our audience with the story of the greening of one of the largest and most watched events in the world: the Olympic and Paralympic Games. We explore:

• How clear targets and innovative procurement strategies helped deliver on ambitious climate goals;
• Why systems-thinking and good governance were critical to aligning decisions with long-term objectives;
• And what risk professionals can learn from this experience to apply in their own organizations, particularly around resilience, efficiency, and driving change at scale.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Speaker's Bio

Georgina Grenon, Director of Environmental Excellence, Paris 2024 Organising Committee for the Olympic and Paralympic Games

Georgina has had a long and varied career in energy and sustainability across the public and private sectors. She began her career in oil and gas, before moving into renewable energy and innovation.

She worked at the French Ministry of Ecology and Energy, where she supported the development of renewable energy policies and markets. She later became a Director at ENGIE Group, a French multinational electric utility company, before joining the Organizing Committee of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2018.

Hear from Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO of Earth Analytics Group, as we dive into the connections between physical climate risk, the global food supply chain, and systemic financial risk.

As climate impacts intensify - from wildfires to water scarcity - these risks are no longer distant. They're material, and they're here to stay. This is most evident in our food system, where disrupted crop yields, shifting growing regions, and stressed supply chains are becoming the new normal.

That's why in this episode, we explore the vital and often overlooked links between climate change, food systems, and financial risk, including:

• How biophysical shocks like drought, fire, and flooding are cascading through supply chains and challenging economic stability;

• Why nature-based solutions are key to building real-world resilience - not just for farmers, but for the financial system as a whole;

• And how risk professionals can lead the transition by rethinking how we value, insure, and invest in a changing world.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]

Links from today's discussion:

• Earth Analytics Group homepage: https://www.earthanalyticsgroup.com/
• DEFRA Stewardship Schemes: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/countryside-stewardship-get-funding-to-protect-and-improve-the-land-you-manage
• USDA NRCS Stewardship Program: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs-initiatives/csp-conservation-stewardship-program

Speaker's Bio

Stephanie Race, Founder & CEO, Earth Analytics Group

Earth Analytics Group is a global environmental informatics firm, helping businesses adapt by integrating nature into financial decision-making.

Stephanie is a business leader, entrepreneur and scientist with over 30 years' experience transforming global food and agriculture supply chains, and restoring ecosystems to balance nature, people and markets.

She previously held a number of senior roles, including as Partner at Accenture, leading the Analytics Practice for Food, Consumer Products & Retail.