CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast

In this podcast, Kristina Clifton sits down with Carol Kong to talk through all the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities this week and their implications for the Chinese economy.   We continue to expect the government will deliver more fiscal stimulus soon.   The risk remains China’s economic growth will undershoot our forecast of 4.9% this year if our expected fiscal stimulus fails to materialise.  But economic growth in 2025 may be stronger than we forecast if a big budget package is released.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the US inflation, and the RBA and PBoC’s interest rate decisions, and the likely impact on the Australian dollar.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

This week, Stephen Wu, Senior Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss last week’s Aussie labour market data and explain how it was the trigger to push back CBA’s forecast for interest rate relief. They also look ahead and preview the RBA Board meeting and monthly CPI data this week.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

This week Kristina Clifton and Jsoeph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings and impacts on currency markets. 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

In the Australian Economics Weekly podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the weak consumer and business sentiment surveys released past week. Particularly the price signals from the business survey bode well for the inflation outlook. All eyes will be on the August labour market data released this week. We expect the unemployment rate to lift to 4.3% which would reinforce our rate cut call by the RBA before the end of the year.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

An early Father’s Day saw a lift in spending in August. The CommBank Household Spending Insights Index rose by 1.8%/mth with gains in spending on Household goods and Hospitality. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast. Education spending also rose while Utilities spend fell due to government rebates. Annual growth remains soft at 3.7%/yr and we expect interest rate relief will be needed to boost consumer spending.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the consumer price index in the US, the Chinese economic data dump for August, and the European central bank’s monetary policy announcement.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

This week Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the June quarter GDP data. A soft result overall with growth of just 0.2% for the quarter and just 1% for the year. Weak consumption, strong public demand are discussed as well as the latest on household incomes, savings and productivity growth. A quiet week ahead locally with survey data out and also the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for August.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued modest growth in the Australian economy.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets: Australian GDP data, a series of US labour market reports and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.