It was a wild week for Australian financial market participants. The much-awaited dovish pivot from the RBA Board arrived on Tuesday with both the statement and post-meeting press conference striking a more optimistic tone on inflation and the outlook for policy. But this renewed market optimism around the prospect of a February rate cut took a hit when the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in data out on Thursday. In our final Aussie Weekly of the year, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the developments from last week and their implications, and briefly preview the light data flow out in the coming week.

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Important Information   

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance  

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

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The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Black Friday sales saw a lift in the CommBank Household Spending Insights in November 2024. The HSI rose by 1.3%/mth led by Household goods. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in this podcast and discuss the outlook for December and 2025 given the interest rate outlook.

------ DISCLAIMER ------ 

Important Information   

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance  

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘CommBank Household Spending Insights’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publicly available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer  

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and three central bank interest rate announcements. 

------ DISCLAIMER ------ 

Important Information   

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance  

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer  

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

A busy week locally with the Q3 24 GDP data. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the weak result and discuss the consumer spending component of the data given its importance. Another busy week looms with the RBA Board meeting and November labour force data.

------ DISCLAIMER ------ 

Important Information   

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance  

Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA Data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on Bank customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group Privacy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct, and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer  

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week, including US labour market data, Australian GDP and political uncertainty in France. 

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

In this week’s podcast, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley take a close look at the monthly CPI data from last week, with mostly good news to report. They also talk through the RBA Governor’s speech at the CEDA Annual Conference. They then turn to the week ahead and preview the all important Q3 24 National Accounts.

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

In 2025, mandatory climate reporting will be introduced and phased in over three years, impacting approximately 4,000 – 5,000 of the largest entities in Australia. In this episode, Commonwealth Bank’s sustainability economist, John Oh, sit down with Dennis Voznesenski to breakdown what climate reporting is, why mandatory climate reporting is being introduced, and whether the impact will be positive for reducing emissions in Australia.

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the outlook for the major economies in 2025, and expectations for central bank interest rates. 

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

It’s been three weeks since the re-election of President Donald Trump.  Two key proposed taxation policies have been increased tariffs and increased tax cuts for businesses and consumers that will be likely be implemented in 2025 and 2026, respectively.  To put all of this into context, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss CBA’s latest view on the implications of these policies for the FOMC in 2025 and 2026.

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.  

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the US PCE deflator, the Australian October CPI and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. 

Disclaimer: 

Important Information  

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). 

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.  

No Reliance 

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. 

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.  

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

Liability Disclaimer 

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.