Aussie stocks ended their winning streak with the ASX 200 down after a strong start to 2025. November’s retail sales data showed a 0.8% increase, softer than expected, reflecting cautious consumer spending despite heavy promotional activities. This adds weight to the possibility of an interest rate cut in February, though key data like employment stats and inflation updates later this month will be pivotal. Meanwhile, Star Entertainment hit an all-time low amid cash flow concerns, and Avita Medical struggled after cutting revenue goals. Bright spots included gold miners and lithium stocks, with Arcadium Lithium surging 8% after regulatory progress in its Rio Tinto takeover deal. Investors now await U.S. employment reports and Chinese inflation data for further direction.

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Wall Street remains cautious as investors weigh the impact of Trump's tariff plans. Technology stocks continue to face pressure, with chip makers leading the declines. Quantum computing stocks fell sharply after Nvidia’s CEO suggested that the technology is still decades away from mainstream use. Meanwhile, banks are under pressure as interest rates steadily rise. In company news, Edison International is the worst performer on the S&P 500, sliding amid the ongoing Los Angeles wildfires. Conversely, eBay shares rose following news of a partnership with Facebook Marketplace. Across the Atlantic, the British pound slumps due to concerns over capital flight. Closer to home, Aussie shares are expected to retreat from four-week highs, while oil prices dip on the back of a build in U.S. fuel stocks.

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The ASX 200 has extended its 2025 winning streak to five days, driven by a positive market reaction to November's inflation data. While headline inflation rose slightly due to electricity and fuel costs, core inflation dropped to 3.2%, below expectations, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the RBA in February. Materials and financials sectors led gains, with miners benefiting despite falling iron ore prices, while tech stocks fell following weaker U.S. market performance. Gold miners surged on strong quarterly updates, but uranium and some individual stocks faced significant declines. Looking ahead, key data releases, including retail sales, jobs, and U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, could shape market movements and rate expectations.

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The US services index climbed, with the price gauge reaching its highest level since 2023, signalling persistent inflation concerns. Traders have adjusted their expectations, no longer fully pricing in a US rate cut before July. Meanwhile, US job openings surged to a six-month high, reflecting a resilient labour market. Additionally, the technology sector lagged, with Nvidia dipping after reaching a record high, while Moderna's stock saw a significant rise due to new vaccine plans. Commodity markets also showed mixed signals; oil prices increased amid Western sanctions, but iron ore fell to a seven-week low, potentially impacting the Aussie market today. Despite these challenges, Aussie shares are on track for a fifth consecutive day of gains. Furthermore, the US dollar advanced to a six-month high, emphasising the strength of the US economy.

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The market has lifted again slightly today continuing the 4-day winning streak.  Laura and Stevie unpack this ‘streak’ and look at the performance of the US market overnight with tech stocks seeing significant shifts.  The Aussie dollar has improved today and so they look into the international happenings that have fuelled this, NVIDIA is back in the headlines, and they unpack the local sector performance with tech seeing gains and materials continuing to trend downwards.

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Technology stocks are at the forefront of driving investor interest and contributing to recent market gains. All eyes are on Nvidia’s CEO, whose upcoming speech is anticipated to ignite the next significant breakout. Meanwhile, the US dollar pares losses following Trump's denial of reports about curbing tariffs. In Canada, stocks see a slight uptick after Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau's resignation. Oil prices have dipped from their 12-week highs, reflecting a cooling in recent gains. Looking ahead, Australian shares are poised for a higher open, bolstered by a rally in copper prices and the critical building approvals data set to capture market attention.

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Laura and Stevie are back following the Christmas break with the market seeing slight declines following some minor falls around lunchtime and a flat finish.  They reflect on the market performance of the year gone by with 24 record highs locally, and they run through the standout movers throughout that period.  Materials stocks led the conversation today with the sector seeing declines, and gold and uranium were in focus.  They look to what could be ahead for the market this week, and the broader things to watch for 2025.

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The new year has had a shaky start, but technology stocks have helped lift Wall Street during holiday trading. US bond yields have climbed in anticipation of upcoming labor market data, while mega-cap stocks have been key drivers in pushing the US share market higher. Meanwhile, a surging US dollar has put pressure on commodity prices. Oil prices have risen, supported by cold weather and favorable Chinese policies. Looking ahead, ASX 200 futures suggest a solid gain, led by Australian tech shares, although concerns about rising inflation persist due to a weak Aussie dollar.

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In the last podcast of 2024, Steve and Laura reflect on a challenging December for the Aussie market, which has seen a 4.5% decline, making it the worst month of the year. The Federal Reserve's slower-than-expected pace of rate cuts rattled global markets, with Financials, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors among the hardest hit locally. Highlights included Life360's 200% surge this year, gold stocks benefiting from record prices, and lithium miners and Star Entertainment ranking among the biggest losers.

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Wall Street is making a cautious recovery after experiencing one of the year’s steepest declines. The Dow Jones Index broke a 10-day losing streak, its longest since 1974, while the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since May, reflecting ongoing strength in the US economy. In corporate news, Micron Technology faced its worst trading day since 2020 following disappointing guidance, while Darden Restaurants enjoyed its best performance since November 2020. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Bank of England held rates steady as policymakers debated whether to implement cuts. Oil prices declined, weighed down by a pessimistic economic outlook. Looking ahead, Aussie shares are predicted to slide as the traditional "Santa rally" shows signs of fading. Adding to the pressures, the Aussie dollar hit a two-year low.

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