CommSec Market Update

US stocks were mixed while Treasuries fell after strong jobs data tempered expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Investor caution weighed on software names, although Generac bucked the trend, rising on optimism around data centre demand. In Europe, commodity strength helped lift shares to fresh record highs. In commodities, oil advanced as Middle East tensions outweighed a large build in US crude inventories, while gold rose 1% as buyers looked past the robust jobs report. Back home, Australian shares are expected to edge higher on Thursday, with the Aussie dollar hovering near a three-year high.

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The ASX200 rose 1.6% Wednesday, hitting the 9,000-point level for the first time in 3.5 months as reporting season gained momentum. Financials led gains after CBA's strong half-year results provided a 7% lift, adding about 60 points to the index. The Aussie dollar surged to a 19-month high following RBA hawkish comments that inflation remains too high. Investors now await US jobs data and a wave of local company reports including AMP and Northern Star.

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US stocks wavered while Treasuries surged after weak retail sales bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Coca-Cola’s outlook disappointed, though Marriott hit a record high after issuing stronger-than-expected guidance. In Europe, losses in energy stocks offset gains in Ferrari. In commodities, oil edged lower as traders weighed Middle East supply risks, while gold slipped ahead of key US jobs and inflation data. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to open higher on Wednesday, with a bumper earnings day ahead and CSL in focus.

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The Aussie market clawed back last week’s losses as a resurgence in Materials and Health Care offset a late fade in the banks. Insurers were hammered by fresh AI disruption fears, following the US launch of an AI-powered comparison tool by Insurify, which sparked a heavy sell-off for local companies like Steadfast and IAG. In the resources space, Uranium stocks and BHP advanced, and Pilbara Minerals also found support after locking in a major lithium offtake agreement. However, G8 Education crashed nearly 20% after scrapping its dividend and flagging a massive $350 million write-down. Attention now pivots to a high-stakes Wednesday, with CBA and CSL set to headline the busiest day of the reporting season so far.

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Tech stocks led a rebound on Wall Street as investors awaited key economic data, while Treasuries were choppy after a move by China added pressure to the bond market. In Europe, shares closed at record highs as AI-related worries eased. In commodities, precious metals rose as the US dollar slipped, while oil prices climbed more than 1% after the US urged caution for vessels near Iran. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to open higher ahead of James Hardie’s earnings results.

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Aussie stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, up 1.9% after a 2% drop last week, with all sectors in green. Gains supported by a strong US market rebound and tech bounce. Reporting season ramps up with key companies like CBA and CSL releasing results, while gold miners surged on rebounded prices. Investors now await US inflation and jobs data.

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US markets logged their best session since May last year, with Nvidia surging after upbeat AI comments from CEO Jensen Huang. The rally was partly offset by Amazon, which slid the most since August after unveiling a US$200 billion spending plan, while a sharp plunge in Stellantis weighed on auto stocks more broadly. In commodities, oil prices climbed on concerns over a potential US–Iran conflict, while iron ore eased ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday. Back home, a rebound is expected in Aussie shares, supported by gains in base and precious metals.

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The ASX 200 slipped about 2.3 % on Friday, the worst day in ten months, as every sector posted losses. Weak US tech, falling commodity prices and concerns over the new Fed chair amplified the sell‑off. CBA rallied 6.4 % after a rebound, but WEB Travel plunged 30 % following a tax‑audit notice. Look ahead to US jobs and inflation data, the RBA’s May rate outlook, and a busy Australian reporting week featuring CBA, AMP, IAG, ANZ, Westpac, Evolution, Northern Star, CSL and Cochlear. Also watch Japan’s snap election for possible market moves.

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Wall Street slumped after Alphabet’s capital spending plans unsettled investors, while a weak outlook from Qualcomm deepened the tech sell-off. In Europe, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, while Rio Tinto and Glencore separately abandoned merger talks. In commodities, silver plunged nearly 14% amid a firmer US dollar, a move that is likely to weigh on Australian shares, which are expected to fall on Friday.

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The ASX200 eased 0.4 % (≈ 39 points) after three days of gains, led by a 3 % fall in materials as silver plunged 14 % and gold slipped 2 %. Tech stocks stayed weak, extending a seventh‑month decline, while BHP fell 4 % letting CBA retake the top spot. Look ahead to ECB and BOE rate holds, US oil inventory data and earnings from Amazon, Barrick, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Estée Lauder.

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