CommSec Market Update

The ASX200 barely moved, up 0.7 points and still near a two‑month high, about 3.3 % below last year’s record. Materials hit a fresh all‑time high (+0.9 %), while energy rose 2.3 % on oil gains. Financials fell 1.7 % led by CBA. Softer US inflation leaves the Fed likely to hold rates, with its decision and major US bank earnings later this week, and Australian jobs data due Thursday.

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Wall Street fell as a warning from JPMorgan over a proposed credit card rate cap weighed on financial stocks, while US bond yields moved lower after inflation data. Elsewhere, European shares slipped as investors digested a mixed bag of corporate updates. In commodities, oil jumped on the risk of Iranian supply disruptions, while gold hit a record high as softer inflation reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to open flat on Wednesday after the ASX 200 closed at two-month highs.

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The ASX200 was up about 0.7 % by early afternoon, led by a 2 % jump in the materials sector which hit a record high as gold and silver surged to fresh peaks. Financials and real estate added modest gains while energy and consumer staples slipped. US indexes closed at record levels, reinforcing global optimism. Upcoming focus includes US inflation data, the Fed’s Jan 28 rate decision, the start of earnings season and Australian job‑vacancy figures.

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Wall Street staged a cautious rebound amid ongoing Fed angst, with the S&P 500 touching a fresh record high, led by gains in retail giant Walmart. US banks lagged after a proposed rate cap reignited regulatory concerns, while the US dollar slipped following reports the Justice Department has subpoenaed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Elsewhere, European shares endured a choppy session but still closed at record highs. In commodities, oil prices held near five-week highs as investors weighed developments in Iran and Venezuela, while gold surged to a new all-time high, a move likely to support Aussie shares on Tuesday.

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The ASX200 lifted about half of one percent in afternoon trade today, with the market up roughly three‑quarters of one percent at its peak. US equities posted a 1.8 % YTD gain and new‑record highs, while gold miners such as Newmont and Remelius rose over five percent on firm metal prices. Consumer discretionary led sector gains, up more than two percent, as the market looks ahead to February’s Australian earnings reports and the US inflation releases and earnings season that could shape momentum.

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US shares finished the first week of the year higher, led by gains in materials and chipmaker stocks, while US Treasuries ended mixed following the latest jobs data. Elsewhere, European markets closed at record highs after Glencore surged on takeover interest from Rio Tinto. In commodities, oil prices rose as traders assessed potential supply risks from Iran and Russia, while gold prices advanced following a softer-than-expected US payrolls report and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Back home, Aussie shares are set to open higher as investors look ahead to the Black Friday spending test.

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Steve and Laura reflect on the final trading session of 2025, which saw the Aussie market push higher to cap off a third consecutive year of gains. While the final week of trade was relatively subdued, a boost from the Technology and Financial sectors helped the benchmark index finish the year up nearly 6%. Reflecting on 2025, it was a massive year for the Materials sector, which surged 28% behind record-breaking runs in gold and silver, contrasting with a difficult period for Healthcare. Individual standouts included DroneShield, which finished as the year’s top performer, while HMC Capital and Bapcor were among those facing significant headwinds. Looking ahead, quarterly inflation data, central bank pivots from the RBA and the Fed, and the February reporting season all shape the outlook for the start of 2026.

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US stocks climbed while Treasury yields eased after inflation came in lower than expected. Micron surged on an upbeat outlook as the AI boom fuels demand for memory chips, while activist investor Elliott is reportedly building a $1 billion stake in Lululemon. In central bank news, the Bank of England cut interest rates following a tight vote. In the commodities market, gold hovered near record highs. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to cap off the final full trading week of 2025 on a strong note.

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A subdued and underwhelming session for the Aussie market, with stocks hovering around flat levels late in the day as energy names did most of the damage. Steve and Laura unpack weakness in Woodside after CEO Meg O’Neill announced her departure to take the top job at BP, mixed moves across the banks with CBA providing some support, and sharp falls among uranium stocks following a shock update from Boss Energy. There were brighter spots, including Bapcor jumping on a CEO change and Austal lifting after securing a $1 billion defence contract. Looking ahead, key US inflation data and several major central bank decisions are due in the next 24 hours.

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Wall Street fell as technology stocks retreated, with the Oracle–Blue Owl decoupling unsettling markets ahead of a looming wave of debt issuance. US Treasuries also slipped after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. In commodities, silver surged to a record high above US$66 an ounce, while lithium prices jumped in China on plans to revoke mining licences. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to fall for a fourth straight session amid renewed rate-hike concerns.

The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

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