CommSec Market Update

Stocks ended the week lower, with Wall Street suffering its worst session of 2025 so far. US bond yields fell amid weakening economic data, while UnitedHealth declined on a Medicare billing probe. Akamai slipped on a weak outlook, but vaccine stocks jumped on reports of a new coronavirus study in China. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 neared record highs as Germany’s election took focus. In commodities, oil prices fell, gold eased from record highs on profit-taking, and copper declined on concerns over Chinese demand. Closer to home, the ASX selloff is expected to deepen ahead of the final week of earnings, while the Aussie dollar weakened on risk aversion.

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The Aussie share market is wrapping up its worst week since September 2022, down roughly 3% as financial stocks weigh heavily after a string of disappointing bank earnings and an RBA rate cut. Despite hitting record highs just last week, the financial sector is now on track for its worst weekly performance in two and a half years. Meanwhile, the materials sector is offering some support, with BHP up nearly 3%. In company news, Domain surged 40% after receiving a $2.7 billion buyout offer while competitor REA slumped. Looking ahead, next week’s earnings season remains packed, with major names like Woolworths, Qantas, and Nvidia in focus.

 

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US stocks fell as Walmart’s profit forecast missed expectations amid slowing growth, while Palantir shares fell as the Pentagon planned budget cuts. Alibaba surged on an e-commerce and cloud revival, and Hasbro gained on a profit beat. Meanwhile, US banks underperformed, heading for their worst drop in two months, and European stocks declined ahead of the German election. Oil extended its rally for a third straight day, while gold soared to fresh record highs. In Australia, shares are expected to snap a four-day losing streak, with the Aussie dollar rising as the US dollar weakened on tariff fatigue.

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The Aussie market continued its losing streak, falling 1.3% and hitting a one-month low, weighed down by declines in financial and materials stocks. Banks, particularly ANZ, struggled after recent strong gains, while mining giants Fortescue and Rio Tinto disappointed with lower profits. Despite a challenging environment, some bright spots emerged—Telstra surged after announcing a dividend increase and a $750 million buyback, while tech firm Megaport jumped 18% on strong earnings. 

 

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The S&P 500 reached new record highs despite a mixed market performance. President Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and chips, raising concerns among Fed officials about inflation. European shares saw their biggest daily drop of 2025 on tariff fears, while UK inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 3% in January. In corporate news, Apple unveiled a low-cost iPhone with AI capabilities, and Microsoft shares climbed after introducing its first quantum computing chip. Meanwhile, oil prices rose on supply concerns, and gold hit a fresh record high. Looking ahead, Aussie shares are set to dip after Rio Tinto reported its smallest profit in five years, and jobs data will be in focus as the Aussie dollar weakens.

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The Aussie market suffered its third consecutive decline, with financial and energy stocks leading the losses. The financial sector, in particular, posted its worst drop of the year, driven by NAB’s disappointing quarterly report and CBA trading ex-dividend. Meanwhile, mineral resources plummeted over 20% after swinging to a major loss and cutting its iron ore guidance, while Santos slashed its dividend following a dip in profits. Looking ahead, investors are eyeing key jobs data and a massive reporting day featuring Rio Tinto, Telstra, and Wesfarmers, among others.

 

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US investors return from a public holiday with a cautious mindset, yet optimism remains for equities, as investors expect them to be the best-performing asset class in 2025. In corporate news, Intel shares surged the most since 2023 on speculation of a potential breakup, while SuperMicro extended its rally after issuing a bullish forecast. In contrast, Medtronic fell as quarterly sales missed expectations. Australian stocks are in focus as NAB, Santos, and Rio Tinto prepare to release earnings today. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed on discussions of an OPEC production delay, and gold gained amid uncertainty surrounding potential Trump-era tariffs. Elsewhere, the RBNZ is expected to deliver another 50 basis point rate cut, while in Australia, the ASX 200 is set to slip on Wednesday, and the Aussie dollar remains flat following yesterday’s rate cut.

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Interest rates have been cut today and the market’s reaction was mixed.  Laura and Stevie unpack this volatility and the uncertainty in investor sentiment following statements from the RBA that muddy expectations around further rate decisions.  The interest rate sensitive sectors today took a hit, and there was a barrage of earnings results out today including Baby Bunting and Challenger.

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The Presidents’ Day public holiday has Wall Street offline yet it ended higher in afternoon trade. In Europe, stocks hit record highs, with defense stocks surging amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. In commodities, oil prices lifted on speculation that OPEC may delay planned output hikes, while gold gained on a softer U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, iron ore slid as supply fears eased following cyclone concerns, putting iron miners on track for their weakest results since 2019. Closer to home, BHP is set to report its half-year results, with investors watching closely for insights into the mining giant’s performance. Looking ahead, Aussie shares are expected to open higher on Tuesday ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision, while the Aussie dollar has climbed to a two-month high against the greenback.

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The market has fallen today but this is following four straight days of improvements.  Laura and Stevie reflect on today’s session and discuss the imminent interest rate decision.  They discuss the likelihood of a rate cut and the impact that either outcome could have on the market, and look at the performance of each of the sectors with some of the biggest ones being weights on the market.  They talk through the stocks that moved the most including Bendigo Bank and A2 Milk, and they look to the week ahead.

The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

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