CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe takes a look at the risks & issues likely to impact the Australian economy in 2016.This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The ASX 200 is up 0.6% boosted by healthy gains in the energy, financial, and telco sectors.This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

US sharemarkets closed higher in volatile trade on Tuesday. The Dow Jones rose 193 points in early trade but was down 76 points in afternoon trade. The energy sector continued to drag on the market as oil prices continued to fall. At the close of trade the Dow Jones was up by 118 points or 0.7%. The S&P 500 was up by 0.8% while the Nasdaq was up by 48 points or 1.0%.Global oil prices fell again on Tuesday. The United Arab Emirates oil minister was reported as saying that the current OPEC strategy was working. And trade sources said Iraq plans record oil exports of around 3.63 million barrels per day in February. Brent crude fell by US69c or 2.2% to US$30.86 a barrel with US Nymex lower by US97c or 3.1% to US$30.44 a barrel.

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This report is

approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60

067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary

of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the

Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries

have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any

investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is

not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products,

and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or

taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should,

before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness

of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or

taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional

advice.  This report is produced by

Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of

publishing.  We believe that the information

in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations

are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty

is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the

Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or

damage arising from the use of this report.

European shares rebounded on Tuesday. Retailers posted solid gains, especially in the UK. Shares in Britain's second-largest department store chain, Debenhams, rose by 10% and shares in Germany's Metro rose by 3.6% The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 1.0%, the German Dax lifted by 1.6% and the UK FTSE was up by 1.0%. In London trade, resource company shares fell with shares in BHP Billiton down by 2.9% while Rio Tinto fell by 2.7%.US sharemarkets were again mixed on Tuesday. The Dow Jones rose 193 points in early trade but was down 76 points in afternoon trade. 

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This report is

approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60

067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary

of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the

Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have

effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or

related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a

recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and

has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or

taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should,

before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness

of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or

taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional

advice.  This report is produced by

Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this

correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are

reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is

made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the

Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or

damage arising from the use of this report.

The ASX 200 has ended the session down 0.1% after being up about 1% in early trade. Losses in the mining & energy sectors weighed on the market.This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

The ASX 200 is up 0.8% to trade higher for the first time this year. The market is being supported by strong gains from the financial & telco sectors. This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.  This report is produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.

US sharemarkets moved in and out of positive territory on Monday. Lower oil prices weighed on the energy sector while the healthcare sector fell after Celgene and McKesson delivered disappointing profit forecasts. The Dow Jones traded in a 230 point range over the session and at the close the index was higher by 52 points or 0.3%. The S&P 500 was up by 0.1% while the Nasdaq was down by 5.6 points or 0.1%.

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This report is

approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60

067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary

of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the

Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have

effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or

related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a

recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and

has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or

taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should,

before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness

of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or

taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional

advice.  This report is produced by

Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this

correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are

reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is

made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the

Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or

damage arising from the use of this report.

The Shanghai Composite tumbled another 5.3% yesterday and Asian markets followed, european markets off near 0.5% across the board  and the US market recovering. 

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This report is

approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60

067 254 399, AFSL 238814 (CommSec) a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary

of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124, AFSL 234945 (the

Bank).  The Bank and its subsidiaries have

effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or

related investments referred to in this report. This report is not a

recommendation to buy, sell or hold any securities or financial products, and

has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or

taxation situation or needs of any particular individual.  For this reason, any individual should,

before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness

of the information, having regard to the individual's objectives, financial or

taxation situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional

advice.  This report is produced by

Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing.  We believe that the information in this

correspondence is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are

reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is

made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness.  To the extent permitted by law, neither the

Bank nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or

damage arising from the use of this report.

Local shares fell for the seventh straight trading day, taking the losses so far this year to almost 7%. Despite dipping below 4900pts for the first time in 2.5 years this morning, local stocks recovered this afternoon.

The Australian sharemarket continues to slide for the seventh day and is flirting with the lowest levels in 2.5 years. Energy and mining stocks are faring worst as commodity prices fall due to concerns about China's markets.