Complexity Premia

By Coolabah Capital InvestmentsBusiness Investing

Complexity Premia episodes

August 08, 2022Episode 31: US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing Correction; Opportunities Emerge
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.
In this heavy-hitting episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
The coming US recession;
The bounce-back in fixed-income/bond markets in July;
The record Aussie housing correction; and
New investment opportunities that are now emerging given the radical increase in interest rates and credit spreads.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
28 min
April 08, 2022Episode 30: How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for the Aussie bond market.
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
The string of losses for bond indices in 2022
The implications of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads for investors
The silver lining for investors getting the best 10 year interest rates on Aussie government bonds
March performance for long-only and long-short strategies
How geopolitical risks have amplified negativity across almost all asset classes
How sky-high vacancies will impact Australia’s jobless rate
Why the NSW Budget could be $9.5bn better off

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
28 min
February 21, 2022Episode 29: Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Dr Stephen Parker, another portfolio manager at Coolabah, to discuss whether crypto is a 21st century version of the great Tulip Bulb Bubble. In particular, they chat about:
What the history of financial crises tells us about non-bank innovations that threaten the conventional, government-backed regimes; and
Whether crypto delivers on the value propositions that promoters spruik: namely, being a stable and viable store of wealth outside of centralised governments; acting as a powerful inflation hedge in a world awash with money printing; serving as a tractable medium of exchange; and providing portfolio diversification benefits.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
16 min
January 17, 2022 Episode 28: Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
• The trend to higher rates across developed and emerging markets into 2022
• Why the Greenspan-Bernanke put option may have expired and the implications for asset prices including equities and housing
• December bond market performance
• NSW's extraordinary budget turnaround as it pulls a $20 billion rabbit out of its hat
• Whether the bank and corporate bond market is becoming “the next quant revolution”

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
39 min
November 07, 2021 Episode 27: House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
• Why Aussie house prices will fall 20% if the RBA lifts rates by 100 basis points
• Coolabah’s research on using advanced models to forecast global wars
• The battle between the RBA and the bond market bandits
• October bond market performance
• NSW's commendable efforts to slash debt issuance by up to $22 billion

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

43 min
October 11, 2021Episode 26: Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
Correlation convergence between interest rate duration and equities;
Portfolio performance across a range of strategies;
Avoiding investing in bonds issued by entities based in and/or controlled by non-democratic countries on an ESG basis;
APRA closing down the $139bn CLF by end-2022 and the consequences for fixed income assets;
Opportunities in government bonds;
RBA QE3; and
ESG activism.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
36 min
June 22, 2021Episode 25: Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems...
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
Coolabah's latest research forecasting both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia, which we forecast will be by January or February 2022;
When governments will be comfortable re-opening our borders, which we project will be mid 2022; and
How the exodus of foreign workers from Australia has contributed to the largest surge in job vacancies since the 1970s and placed downward pressure on the official unemployment rate, which will likely be reversed-out once the borders re-open, creating complexities for policymakers.
You can download the full research paper on forecasting Australian herd immunity and our borders opening, including charts and figures, here.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
27 min
April 30, 2021 Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
This special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, who replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years.
You can download the full research paper with the housing forecasts, including charts and figures, here.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

26 min
April 11, 2021Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.
In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:
The bond market recovery in March 2021;
Our performance in the month;
Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios;
The RBA’s QE3 program;
Credit market performance;
Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and
Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
25 min
March 14, 2021 Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

In this short episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:

• The biggest bond market bloodbath since 1994;
• Our portfolio performance in February 2021 across a range of strategies;
• The likelihood of macro-prudential constraints being eventually applied to Aussie housing;
• How the RBA’s governor, Phil Lowe, brutally bashed the bond market bandits; and
• The RBA’s QE 3 and 4 programs.

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
27 min

About Complexity Premia

From the publisher's feed

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director.