I'll explain my reasoning in a second, but I'll start with the conclusion:

I think it'd be healthy and good to pause and seriously reconsider the focus on doom if we get to 2028 and the situation feels basically like it does today.

I don't know how to really precisely define "basically like it does today". I'll try to offer some pointers in a bit. I'm hoping folk will chime in and suggest some details.

Also, I don't mean to challenge the doom focus right now. There seems to be some good momentum with AI 2027 and the Eliezer/Nate book. I even preordered the latter.

But I'm still guessing this whole approach is at least partly misled. And I'm guessing that fact will show up in 2028 as "Oh, huh, looks like timelines are maybe a little longer than we once thought. But it's still the case that AGI [...]

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Outline:

(02:14) Inner cries for help

(08:09) Scaring people

(11:10) A shared positive vision

(16:51) Maybe itll be okay

(20:44) Come 2028...

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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