Holly's out this week. Andrew claims she's started a rival podcast called "Raft Politics." We soldier on anyway.

What We Covered

UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next. Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard.

Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election?

Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.

The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.

We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.

What We Covered

• The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
• Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
• The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
• The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.

Key Insight

Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.

Guest

Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.

This week the team dissects Prime Minister Mark Carney's headline-grabbing Davos speech, Trump's inflammatory comments about NATO allies in Afghanistan, the Labour Party's decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election, and the continuing exodus of Conservative MPs to Reform UK.

Plus: a deep dive into Trump's collapsing poll numbers across key demographics.

Topics Covered

1. Carney's Davos Speech — A "Rupture, Not a Transition"Mark Carney delivered a major address at the World Economic Forum arguing the post-Cold War rules-based order is no longer functioning. He urged middle powers to band together, warning "if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." The speech earned a rare standing ovation and continues making headlines a week later. Andrew draws parallels to the pre-WWI environment: militarism, alliances, imperialism, nationalism, and significant individuals.

2. Trump Rewrites Afghanistan HistoryTrump claimed NATO allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan — a statement contradicted by the 457 British and 158 Canadian deaths in the conflict. The hosts note Article 5 has only ever been invoked once: by the United States after 9/11, with allies responding. The King reportedly reached out, and Trump has since walked back the comments.

3. Andy Burnham Blocked from By-ElectionLabour's NEC prevented Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election. The hosts see it as a convenient mechanism to keep a potential Starmer rival out of Parliament — but note Labour may now lose the seat to Reform anyway.

4. Suella Braverman Defects to ReformFormer Home Secretary Suella Braverman became the third Conservative MP in a week to join Reform UK, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Holly notes her defection speech was notably polished and felt "authentic" given her long-held positions.

5. Trump's Polling CollapseJoseph shares data showing Trump losing support across nearly every demographic since 2024 — particularly among non-white voters and 18-29 year-olds. The hosts speculate whether the Minneapolis ICE retreat signals the first time Trump has recognized his base moving away from him on an issue.

Word of the Week: "Big Daddy Carns"Coined during the 2025 campaign when a woman heckled Carney with "Lead us, Big Daddy!" — now shorthand for his blend of "cheeky, charming competence."

Notable Quotes

• "The rules-based order has been dead for quite a while now... we've finally accepted it."
• "We're trying to rationalize something that's irrational. Disorder reigns."
• "The only time Article 5 has been used was in Afghanistan — by the United States."

Plus, Carney's pivot on China, and more Tory defections in the UK.

The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy

Photo by Visit Greenland on Unsplash

It’s our final episode of 2025 — and we’re going out with a bang (and a beer). Joseph, Holly, and Andrew reunite after a winter bug-induced hiatus to bring you our first-ever year-end special. We make bold predictions (that we’ll surely regret), hand out highly scientific year-end awards, play games, roast each other’s beer tasting notes, and toast to the chaos that was.

It’s everything you’d expect from Craft Politics — unfiltered, occasionally insightful, and always a bit ridiculous.

🗳 Rapid-Fire Reflections:

• One word to sum up the political year? Fruitless, chaotic… and a bit shit.
• The story everyone thinks they understood?
  • Doug Ford’s World Series ad
  • Trump’s tariffs
  • Labour’s tax strategy — and still nobody gets it.
• What we’re all pretending won’t matter in 2026, but will?
  • Alberta separatism
  • UK house prices
  • defence spending… and apparently, Andrew’s age.

🔹 Serious Predictions:

• Canada heads to the polls — and the Conservatives win (Joseph)
• Conservative leadership could change… in Canada (Andrew)
• Reform UK will peak in spring… then fade (Holly)

🌶 Spicy Predictions:

• The Parti Québécois doesn’t win in Quebec — CAQ makes a surprise comeback (Joseph)
• Zack Polanski’s meteoric Green Party rise hits a bump (Holly)
• Something very spicy happens in Labour ranks (Andrew… vaguely)

🕵️‍♀️ Quiet Shifts to Watch:

• Canada’s election becomes about chaos vs. control
• Doug Ford and Donald Trump become unlikely friends
• Joseph steps down from the podcast due to… “an incident”

📊 Real Headline or Fake?

• Doug Ford on The Amazing Race?
• Signal-gate?
• Andrew Percy in the Lords?
  
  Let’s just say, trust no one — especially Grockipedia.

🗣️ Who Said It?

• “I don’t particularly want to wipe someone’s bum”
• “The best is yet to come… get the bungee harness ready”
• “I originally saw AI as an efficiency gain. I was wrong.”
  
  (Many of your favourites are quoted, willingly or not.)

🍺 Beer Notes or Erotic Fiction?

Andrew and Holly put Joseph’s Untappd beer reviews under the microscope.

Did he really say a beer had a “beautiful head”? Yes.

Did he really sneak one into a soccer match? Also yes.

Did any of it make sense? You be the judge

🏆 Year-End Awards

• Most Predictable Surprise: Angela Rayner resigns
• Best Attempt at Spin: Signal-gate
• Worst Use of a Chart: Lib Dems still doing Lib Dem things
• Phrase We Never Want to Hear Again: “Looks gorgeous. Tastes like a marvel.”

The team is back in London — Joseph is enjoying the rare British sunshine, while Holly and Andrew are soaking up the political chaos. This week, we unpack the Labour government’s tough week of headlines and hard truths: from a post-budget messaging mess to a controversial shake-up of the UK justice system — and a surprise pipeline agreement in Canada.

📉 Labour’s Budget Blunders: ‘Did She Mislead the Public?’

• We revisit last week’s autumn budget after a week of unravelling
• Rachel Reeves is under pressure over whether she misrepresented the fiscal headroom
• Communications have spiralled into a defensive posture: “Did she lie?” becomes the only story
• Holly shares her three-day rule: every budget turns to chaos within 72 hours — and this one delivered

⚖️ Trial Without Jury? The Justice Reform Turning Heads

• David Lammy’s proposal to remove jury trials for offences under 3 years sparks a major backlash
• Critics say it’s an attack on a centuries-old principle — and unlikely to solve case backlogs
• Andrew questions whether judges are being politicized, while Holly warns of a “slippery slope”
• Joseph notes this is another Labour announcement suffering from poor rollout and zero preconditioning

🇨🇦 Alberta’s Pipeline Deal with Ottawa: Real Progress or Political Cover?

• Joseph breaks down the new MOU between Alberta and the federal government
• The deal sets the stage for a new west coast pipeline — without consulting BC
• Premier Eby is furious, Carney is betting big, and Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope
• Andrew and Holly react to whether this kind of high-stakes, nation-building compromise could ever work in UK politics

We almost had a new entry for “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — our regular feature on political spin — but in the spirit of seasonal generosity, Andrew suggests giving UK ministers a break…for now.

With Celia McSwaine & Christine Quigley

The Labour government dropped its first full budget — and everyone’s claiming victory… or crying foul. This week, Joseph and Andrew are joined by Celia McSwaine (former Treasury SpAd) and Christine Quigley (Labour strategist) to unpack what it all means: from fiscal drag and frozen thresholds to the abolition of the two-child benefit cap and Kemi Badenoch’s show-stealing rebuttal.

We cover the politics, the process, and the problems still ahead.

💸 In This Episode:

📊 Labour’s Balancing Act

• “A budget where everyone gets something… and everyone pays for it.”

• Massive welfare spend, frozen tax thresholds, and the return of fiscal drag

• Why the OBR, not the Commons, may be in charge now

👶 The Two-Child Benefit Cap Is Gone

• Labour says it will lift 450,000 children out of poverty

• Critics say it penalizes middle earners and disincentivizes work

• Is this Labour morality — or Labour survival?

🎭 Budget Theatre: Kemi’s Big Moment

• Rachel Reeves made history — and played it safe

• Kemi Badenoch’s “call and response” rebuttal caught fire on social media

• From “mansplaining” to broken promises: who landed the bigger punch?

🧮 Behind the Curtain: How Budgets Get Made

• Celia McSwaine shares what it’s really like crafting a UK budget

• Why Rachel Reeves leaked everything

• And how “death by a thousand cuts” might come back to bite

⸻

🗞 Headlines of the Week:

• The Sun: “Benefit Street Budget”

• The Telegraph: “A Spiteful Raid on Middle England”

• The Mirror: “A Budget with a Labour Heart”

• The Daily Star: “The Budget That Stole Christmas”

With special guest Alex MuirIn this week’s interview edition, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy sit down with Canadian-American pollster and strategist Alex Muir to map out the real factions driving the MAGA movement — and why Canada is dangerously unprepared for a second Trump administration.Muir doesn’t pull punches.“The America we grew up with doesn’t exist anymore. In the same way that the Canada I grew up in doesn’t exist anymore.”⸻🔥 In This Episode📌 The Seven MAGA FactionsAlex walks us through the internal tribes of the America First movement — including: • MAGA Populists • Institutional MAGA • Traditional Business Conservatives • Tech Libertarians • Christian Nationalists • Isolationists & Neocons • The Family Court (Trump’s inner circle)🧠 Shared Beliefs That Bind ThemFrom the branding genius of Make America Great Again to the cultural rage at a world that “disrespects” America, Alex explains:“Foreigners need to know their place.”🧊 The Chilling Truth for CanadaDespite trade, shared security, and years of goodwill:“Canada doesn’t have leverage. It has convenience value.”🇨🇦 What Canada Gets Wrong • Canadian politicians assume a return to “normal” is inevitable • The embassy lacks deep MAGA relationships • Most outreach is happening in the wrong cities (DC, NY, LA)“They don’t care about Canada. They don’t think they need to.”⸻🎯 Hard Truths About Trump 2.0Unlike the first time: • They’re ready to govern • They’ve written executive orders in advance • They’ve mapped out personnel, departments, and state-level pipelines“Trump is no longer isolated in Washington.”And if you think this all ends when Trump does:“The next thing will be more ideological, more effective — and worse for Canada.”⸻💡 A Strategic Wake-Up CallAlex shares a clear message for Canada:“Want the Trump administration’s attention? Have you considered buying $100 million of his crypto?”…And why the work to build relationships must start now, especially with: • CPAC • Heritage Action • Turning Point • The Danube Institute • Texas & Florida power bases

This week’s episode runs the gamut: from house prices in freefall, to Labour’s immigration U-turn, to what the hell is going on in Parliament (again). We also say a bittersweet goodbye to one U.S. Congressman — and welcome a rare, almost-sincere apology from Marjorie Taylor Greene in our Lipstick on a Gerbil segment.Pour a pint and let’s get into it.⸻🏠 1. UK Housing Market WobblesNew data shows UK house prices down 1.8%, the steepest drop for this time of year in over a decade. But why is it happening?We discuss: • How Labour’s leak-heavy pre-budget chaos is rattling consumer confidence • Stamp duty, council tax rumours, and interest rate anxiety • Whether this is just a London story — or a warning for the rest of the UKIt’s either a sh*t sandwich, or a sh*t sandwich they’re not even going to eat. Either way, the market smells it.⸻🧾 2. Immigration Reform… or Reform Panic?Labour has unveiled sweeping immigration changes, including: • Temporary refugee status with 2.5-year reviews • A 20-year path to permanent residency • Faster deportations for failed asylum claims — including familiesBut within 24 hours, Labour backbenchers revolted, and critics from all sides questioned the policy’s credibility and intent.We ask: • Is this a strategic pivot to undercut Reform UK? • Will voters believe Labour means it? • Or does it just look like panic from a party still at war with itself?They’ve got a huge majority, and still… no one’s buying it.⸻🇺🇸 3. Burnout in the House: Jared Golden Steps DownCongressman Jared Golden (D-ME) announced his retirement, citing growing incivility and toxicity in American politics.We reflect on: • The real mental health toll of public office • Why more good people are leaving • How algorithmic outrage and polarization are reshaping political discourseWe’re not losing just politicians — we’re losing the ones we actually need to stay.⸻💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Sorry… Sort OfIn a surprising CNN interview, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene issued a rare apology for her years of toxic rhetoric.We debate: • Is this a real change — or just a rebrand now that she’s on the receiving end? • Can former provocateurs actually help de-escalate politics? • And does a Southern accent make it sound more sincere?🧴 1 Coat Across the BoardIt’s a start. But let’s see if she keeps the room tidy for six months.

This week, we tackle the institution that’s cracking (the BBC), the leader who’s spending (Mark Carney), and the conservative premier who’s somehow breaking hearts and polling records (Doug Ford).

Also, Prince Harry makes a surprise appearance… in our Lipstick on a Gerbil segment.

🏚 1. BBC on the Brink

We break down the resignation of BBC’s Director-General, Tim Davie, following a firestorm of scandals — including:

• A Panorama edit that deceptively spliced Trump’s speech
• Allegations of editorial bias on the Middle East and trans issues
• A crushing internal report that reveals the public broadcaster has lost trust across the political spectrum

We debate whether the BBC has become the UK’s next great institutional casualty — and ask:

Is this the moment it becomes the CBC of British politics?

“You don’t just lose public trust with bias — you lose it with smugness.”

💸 2. Canada’s Budget Gets Derailed by… Polievre?

It was supposed to be the biggest budget in a generation — but you wouldn’t know it based on the political headlines.

Instead, the story has been:

• Two MPs leave Pierre Poilievre’s caucus
• Allegations his office used oppo research to threaten MPs
• A leadership review coming in January

“The budget is a footnote in a week of internal Conservative chaos.”

We ask:

• Does this damage Poilievre’s image as a PM-in-waiting?
• Why is no one talking about the record-breaking deficit?
  
  And is anyone in Canadian politics actually focused on cost of living?