Current Market Insights

On 2GB Nights with John Stanley, Peter O'Malley from Harris Partners explains why Australia’s property downturn is no longer confined to Sydney and Melbourne. As auction clearance rates weaken across more capital cities, the discussion explores the widening disconnect between buyers and sellers, and why confidence—not just interest rates—is shaping the market.

They also discuss:

•  The property downturn spreading into more Australian capital cities 
•  Why slowing property activity affects both federal and state government revenues 
•  What weak auction clearance rates reveal about buyer and seller expectations 
•  The risks of agents accepting unrealistic listings in a falling market 
•  The negative feedback loop where buyers expect even lower prices tomorrow 
•  Why spring alone won’t reverse the market without rate cuts or meaningful policy changes 
•  Immigration continuing to outpace new housing supply 
•  Whether something as simple as wet weather can influence buyer perception on auction day

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In this deep dive on the issues that have dictated the market performance in 2026, Louis covers: 

• the shock and awe conditions facing the property market
• the historical crash in Auction results 
• the best and worst performing segments of the Sydney market 
• why the market won’t crash
• the true impact of the Federal Government's Budget 
• when the RBA are likely to cut interest rates
• First Home Buyers facing negative equity and 
• the unfortunate rise in homelessness as rents & immigration numbers surge.

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On Across Australia, host Chris Smith is joined by Peter O'Malley to examine the sharp decline in auction clearance rates across Sydney and Melbourne, and whether recent federal housing policies are undermining confidence in the property market. The discussion explores the flow-on effects for buyers, sellers, landlords, and renters as affordability pressures continue to mount.

They also discuss:

•  Auction clearance rates falling to decade lows and what that signals for market momentum 
•  Interest rates versus proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax 
•  Why a surge in spring listings could place further downward pressure on prices 
•  Price weakness emerging across both prestige suburbs and Western Sydney 
•  The "wealth effect" and how falling property values can reduce household spending 
•  Rising rents making it harder for tenants to save a deposit despite affordability initiatives 
•  First home buyers leaving the rental market and intensifying competition at the affordable end 
•  Whether current housing policies are achieving their intended outcomes

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On 2GB Nights with John Stanley, Peter O’Malley takes a hard look at the softening Australian property market and what weakening auction clearance rates mean for buyers and sellers. As competition thins, the focus is shifting from auction theatre to genuine negotiation, while rising renovation costs are forcing many owners to rethink their plans.

They also discuss:

•  Winter stock levels tightening and the short selling window this can create 
•  Weakening auction clearance rates and what they reveal about buyer demand 
•  Why auctions depend on a deep buyer pool to generate strong results 
•  The shift from competitive auctions to direct negotiation in softer markets 
•  Selling a property's true value through fundamentals such as aspect, layout, and liveability 
•  Local infrastructure projects and neighbourhood changes influencing buyer interest 
•  How negative property headlines affect confidence and price expectations 
•  The risks of waiting for spring if listings surge and buyer demand remains subdued 
•  Renovate versus sell: when a blank canvas may be the better option 
•  Why more DA-approved properties are coming to market 
•  Builder cost blowouts derailing renovation plans across Sydney 
•  Avoiding overcapitalisation and the importance of obtaining valuation and local market advice before spending

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We tackle the uncomfortable vendor dilemma of whether to stick with an underperforming real estate agent or flick them and start again. We share the practical markers that separate a tough but competent agent from one who is avoiding reality, plus the legal and financial traps that can hit when you switch mid-campaign.

• recognising when the market has moved since the appraisal
• valuing honesty and evidence over likeability and hype
• spotting “conditioning” and other avoidance behaviours
• separating price issues from agent skill and closing ability
• understanding NSW agency agreements and double commission risk
• knowing when switching agents usually leads to a lower result
• setting hard no-go lines around integrity and confidentiality
• using time on market and buyer behaviour as the real signal

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Sydney’s property market can look like a disaster if you only read the headlines, yet the real story is more nuanced: prices are off their highs, auctions are struggling, and buyers are cautious, but demand has not vanished and credit is still flowing for people who qualify. We walk through what we’re seeing across Sydney right now, why the mood feels worse than the reality, and how to make sense of auction clearance rates that sit in the low 30s while open homes can still be busy.

We dig into the crucial difference between the 2018 downturn and the current cycle. Back then, the problem was credit availability. This time, interest rates and serviceability are doing the damage, which changes how quickly deals fall over and how negotiable good properties really are. We also break down why auctions can be the wrong tool in a softer market, why so many campaigns are selling before auction day, and what a smarter private treaty strategy looks like when buyers are wary.

Then we get practical: which parts of the Sydney property market are performing better (entry-level homes, renovated houses, family homes close to the CBD), what is stalling (rebuild projects, DA-driven potential, strata with issues), and why renovation risk is reshaping buyer preferences. We also talk price guides, underquoting enforcement in NSW, and the ethics mistakes that can hand buyers leverage in a single email.

If you’re buying, selling, or simply trying to understand where Sydney real estate is heading, this is your reality check. Subscribe, share with a mate who’s doom-scrolling auction results, and leave a review if you want more straight, on-the-ground market insights. What are you seeing in your suburb right now?

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On 2GB Nights with John Stanley, Peter O’Malley joins the program to discuss why the property market feels increasingly uncertain despite seemingly steady auction results. Beneath the headline numbers, buyer competition is thinning, demand is softening, and the outlook for housing supply remains constrained by high construction costs and economic pressures.

They also discuss:

•  Holiday weekend conditions and what a “quiet” market really means 
•  Sydney auction results and signs of weaker buyer competition 
•  Why interest rate hikes are having a greater impact than budget announcements 
•  Winter’s low stock levels masking softer underlying demand 
•  The risk of a spring listing surge placing further pressure on prices 
•  Which groups are most exposed to losses, including recent purchasers and first home buyers 
•  How stamp duty, selling costs, and interest expenses affect real-world outcomes 
•  Soaring construction costs pushing smaller developers out of the market 
•  Why only large-scale projects currently stack up financially 
•  The clash between negative gearing proposals and the realities of development feasibility

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The budget headlines are everywhere, but the bigger story is what sits underneath them: inflation pressure, government spending, and what the RBA might be forced to do next. We sit down with Peter O’Malley to break down economist Warren Hogan’s hard-edged view of the 2026 Federal Budget, including his argument that Australia becomes inflationary once GDP growth pushes above 2%, while spending keeps running hotter than the economy can comfortably absorb. If that’s the setup, interest rates don’t fall because we hope they will, they fall only when policy settings and inflation finally line up.  

We also talk politics without getting lost in it: the claim that the budget is designed to ring-fence votes, the “care economy” debate, and why Hogan says the intergenerational inequality framing won’t deliver the outcomes being promised. From there we move to the real economy: small business viability, cost pass-through, and why the bond market has been signalling the rate hiking cycle may not be finished.  

Then we get practical about Sydney real estate. SQM Research data shows a weak auction clearance rate and a surge in postponed auctions, but Peter explains why the auction process itself can be the wrong fit in a cautious market. We cover how to filter media noise, why “sell first” matters more than ever, and how buyers and sellers should think in terms of changeover price. We finish with rentals and investing: negative gearing is grandfathered for existing landlords, but future investor demand may fade unless prices, rents, and yields recalibrate.  
If this helped you cut through the spin, subscribe, share the episode with a mate, and leave a review. What signal are you watching most right now: inflation, rates, or auction results?

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On 2GB Nights with John Stanley, Peter O’Malley from Harris Partners joins the program to unpack the clear softening emerging across Australia’s property market. With weak auction clearance rates, falling buyer confidence, and proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax dominating headlines, the conversation explores what could lie ahead for prices, investors, and renters.

They also discuss:

•  Weekend auction clearance rates across Sydney, Canberra, and Brisbane — and what they reveal about demand 
•  Why this downturn feels tougher than 2020 and comparisons to the 2018 market correction 
•  Uncertainty around legislation timing and why policy detail matters 
•  The dangers of paying a premium for brand new property and “new property syndrome” 
•  How to properly assess off-the-plan purchases against the broader market 
•  Negative gearing vs positive gearing and the impact on borrowing capacity 
•  Why rents can continue rising even as property prices soften 
•  Melbourne as a case study in how policy settings can reshape both prices and rental markets

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We react to the Federal Budget’s big property moves and explain why the headline promise of helping first home buyers may actually tighten rentals and lift prices in new stock. We break down how the negative gearing reset and capital gains tax changes could reshape investor behaviour, developer margins, and the next few years of the Sydney property market.

• the budget framing on property policy and broken promises 
• negative gearing restricted to brand new dwellings and what that shifts in demand 
• why a premium can form in new builds and how off-the-plan buyers get caught 
• the longer-run path to higher rents as established-market investors exit 
• why price falls are unlikely to be fast or dramatic despite investor pullback 
• capital gains tax basics plus the move to inflation indexing and marginal rates 
• pre-1985 assets and the fairness argument around untaxed gains 
• winners and losers across big developers mid-sized developers flippers and rentvestors 
• the curveball view that New Zealand property may look more attractive for investors 
• practical caution on overseas buying and leasehold risks

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As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!