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🎙️ In this eye-opening episode, Dave, Cate and Mike dig into brand-new research on housing affordability from MCG Quantity Surveyors. But instead of looking at mortgage repayments, this report flips the focus to deposits — an obvious entry hurdle for buyers. What they uncover is staggering: the time it takes to save a 20% deposit has tripled or even quadrupled since the 1970s. However, the Trio also delve into the deposit size and question whether 20% is all that applicable in today's day and age.

📊 Mike explains why deposits matter more than repayments in understanding affordability. Back in 1975, saving a 20% deposit took around six months of income. Today, it takes two years or more — before repayments even begin. Prices have risen 30–40× since the mid-70s, while wages have only grown 10×. The gap is where affordability has collapsed, and it’s clearly visible across every Australian capital city.

🏡 Cate takes us through the hard numbers: Sydney’s deposit multiple has jumped from 29 weeks of income in 1975 to 121 weeks today. Melbourne has moved from 32 to 97, Brisbane from 28 to 104, and Adelaide from 35 to 114. Even Hobart, once the most affordable, has shifted from 40 to 93. These figures make one thing clear — buying into the market now requires a far longer savings journey, even at a reduced deposit size.

💰 Cate shares a Sydney case study. In 1975, a family needed just $6,860 for a 20% deposit — achievable in seven months. Fast forward to 2025, and the required deposit has blown out to $282,000. At today’s incomes, that’s more than two years of full earnings. Factoring in tax, rent and everyday living costs, translates to a decade or more of disciplined saving.

📉 Brisbane paints a similar picture. Back in 1975, buyers could scrape together a deposit in six months. Today, despite lower house prices compared to Sydney, Brisbane buyers still face a two-year deposit hurdle. With house prices in Brisbane and Adelaide surging 70% since COVID, affordability in these “cheaper” markets has eroded just as sharply.

🏦 The Trio also break down the role of government schemes — from first-home buyer grants to stamp duty concessions. While these policies help individuals in the short term, they’re stimulatory, adding buying power but pushing prices up. The result? Affordability worsens for those left out of the schemes, and the saving treadmill just speeds up. Yet Dave and Cate shed light on some of the advantages and initiatives on offer for today's first home buyers. Is the 20% hurdle a fair one to contrast to the old days?

🚦Dave reminds listeners that the affordability gulf isn’t about monthly repayments — it’s about the growing difficulty of getting through the deposit door. But he also promises to share a counter episode on deposits! Stay tuned...

And our gold nuggets!.....

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate explains the difference between the deposit and the servicing. Both are very important, but mutually exclusive.

David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave has some great suggestions for our first homebuyer listeners, from planning, to assessing their needs, to starting with a smaller property as a stepping stone. "You need to be pragmatic, because the earlier you get into the property market, the better."

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike conducts this research because he loves to start a conversation. He also mentions some statistics that Alan Kohler shared on the ABC (see notes in our shownotes).

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/09/01/clearing-the-deposit-hurdle/

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🎙️ Should I Build or Hold? A Listener’s Dilemma with a Vacant Block in Tasmania In this week’s episode of The Property Trio, we tackle a thoughtful listener question from Lauren, who finds herself at a crossroads with her property journey. Living in inner-Geelong and loving the lifestyle, Lauren is currently priced out of the local housing market for her own home. But with a block of land she purchased in Tasmania back in 2022, she’s weighing up whether to build an investment property on the land, or take a different approach to reach her financial and property goals.

🏡 Lauren’s Situation
Lauren bought her block of land for $180,000 (with $150,000 still owing), and she’s been told by local agents that demand for built homes in the area is strong. With building costs estimated at $330,000 and potential rental returns of $550–$595 per week, the numbers initially sound promising. On a healthy income of $100,000, paying just $1,000 in rent for her share house, Lauren has managed to save a 5% deposit. Adding to the opportunity, her sister has offered to go guarantor for the remaining 15%—a generous offer that could help her avoid costly lenders’ mortgage insurance.

💡 The Questions
But Lauren has some big considerations:

• Is sitting on vacant land in a market with oversupply a sound move, or is it better to build?
• How should she assess the Tasmanian growth drivers, and are there risks she hasn’t yet considered?
• What does the land-to-asset ratio tell us about this strategy?
• How could she think about a close family member's offer of guarantor, and what safeguards should they both put in place?
• Most importantly, how will taking on this investment impact her ability to borrow for her own future home? Will the rental income and equity help her, or will lenders view the added debt as a hurdle?

📈 The Trio Weigh In
Cate, Dave, and Mike unpack the intricacies of Lauren’s situation, looking at the opportunity through the lenses of lifestyle, risk, and financial strategy. Dave's team have modelled some borrowing capacity details to assist the Trio when weighing up the possibilities for Lauren's scenario; Borrowing capacity for home purchase: 

• Current position: Existing $150,000 loan (for land) and $6,000 Credit card = borrowing capacity of $316,000 for home purchase
• Closing the credit card: Existing $150,000 loan (for land) = borrowing capacity of $345,000 for home purchase
• Proceeding with the construction and closes the credit card: Existing loan increased to $478,000 (land and construction) = borrowing capacity of $240,000 for home purchase
• Selling the land and closes credit card: borrowing capacity of $492,000 for home purchase

Lauren has a HECS balance of $50,000 with approx. monthly repayments of $472 that is also dampening the borrowing capacity. Dave goes into some great detail on lending policy constraints and enablers with regards to the impact of HECS. The scenario modelled suggests a further borrowing capacity lift to $558,000 could be possible, and he also shares the impact of further rate cuts too. How do the potential solutions pan out? Tune in to find out...

From forward planning to assessing milestones, and from understanding bank servicing calculations to weighing the risks of construction in a shifting market, the Trio leave no stone unturned. 

And our gold nuggets!..... 

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: It's important to ask yourself the question, "what's the end goal?"

David Johnston's gold nugget: Getting good strategic mortgage broking advice can make the difference between sitting in limbo, and making an educated decision with the options on hand. 

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike talks about the importance of having experts who are able to help guide clients through journeys such as this. "There is so much to it. It's not really a zero/one binary situation."

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/08/25/unpacking-investor-challenges/

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In this latest market update episode, the Trio unpack the findings in the July data, and they reflect on the recent cash rate cut and what this could mean for the market.

🏡 Capital City Highlights
Darwin leads the chase by a very large margin and Mike touches on the chances of double-digit growth for 2025. Cate notes that every capital is sitting in positive growth territory for the past month, and while Darwin is galloping, Perth's 0.9% increase in one month is impressive too. Could Darwin's median value eclipse that of Hobart's? The Trio ponder the growth and pay credit to William, a lovely listener who tempted the Trio to create an episode on Darwin at the beginning of the year.

📈 What is happening with rents?
Is affordability biting, and behaviours changing in response to this? Mike suggests some possible reasons why the pace of rental growth is slowing down. Factoring in share housing, increasing household formation rates, re-partnering of couples following COVID, and a slowdown in skilled migration have all contributed to a slow down in rental growth. 


💰 Rental Yields & Investor Trends
Gross rental yields tell an interesting story for some of our cities. Brisbane's rental yield has shown a subtle shift downwards. Recently on par with Melbourne and Adelaide for some time, the slight reduction signals the fact that the rental growth hasn't kept up with the capital growth. 

Hobart's tight stock supply has the Trio talking. A city of over a quarter of a million people only has 335 available dwellings; surely a challenging imbalance, and one that explains the tight vacancy rate.

📉 Listings Drop, Pressure Builds
Total listing numbers are down when contrasted against the same time last year, but not all cities are exhibiting tighter stock numbers. Cate reflects on the Old Listings data and draws on the annual change for Darwin in particular. What does this indicate about investor behaviour, and does it signal a risk for investors who aren't selecting carefully?

📊 The RBA Rate Decision
The Trio chat about Governor Michelle Bullock's speech about the recent rate cut. Cate was surprised at our Reserve Board Governor's openness about further rate cuts. When contrasted against her previous board meeting speeches, her willingness to boldly discuss more cash rate cuts was stark. Productivity continues to remain a key concern, and in the face of reasonably strong employment figures and lower inflation levels, it seems the RBA have more challenges to keep an eye on. Lastly, Dave wraps up with a great overview of productivity and what it means for our nation.  

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/08/18/ep-323-july-2025-market-update/

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🎙In this episode, Dave is joined by Cate and Mike to tackle two common traps for investors: over-reliance on suburb-level data and the temptation of “bargains” in the bottom quartile of property prices.

💸 Cate kicks things off by sharing her concerns about investors—especially first-timers—being seduced by cheap properties promoted in suburb data reports. Many of these are in low socio-economic areas or regions with limited long-term growth potential. While high rental yields might appear attractive, these properties often lack the owner-occupier appeal that drives sustained capital growth. Cate warns that when investors flock to a small area, values can spike briefly before stagnating, sometimes leaving the last buyers in trouble. 

📊 Mike reinforces this by breaking down the pitfalls of suburb medians. While they’re easily accessible, they can be dangerously misleading without context. Instead, Mike suggests filtering data by dwelling type, looking at sales dispersion, DOM (days on market), vendor discounting, and percentage of stock on market for a clearer sense of supply and demand. 

 🗺 Cate stresses that suburbs are not homogenous—each street, pocket, and dwelling can vary widely. She’s seen investors buy sight-unseen in so-called “hot suburbs” only to end up with properties in undesirable streets or with hidden zoning issues. True due diligence goes beyond numbers to include lifestyle appeal, orientation, and neighbourhood quality. Dave reinforces a key point: just because a property sits within a “good” suburb doesn’t mean it’s a good purchase.

🏖 The conversation shifts to Kent’s “Four Pillars” research—a balanced lifestyle scorecard that equally weights proximity to beach, nature, urban amenities, and family infrastructure. Mike explains how areas scoring well across all four pillars, such as parts of Warringah, Townsville, and Perth, show strong long-term fundamentals. Cate notes that lifestyle appeal often underpins resilience and growth over decades, not just during a boom cycle. 

🚩 As the trio wraps up, Cate’s biggest red flag is ultra-tight days on market compared with neighbouring suburbs—a sign that investor FOMO, (fear of missing out) may be inflating prices. Mike’s warning is to focus on supply constraints, like zoning or heritage overlays, which can underpin long-term capital growth.  Dave wraps up the episode and encourages investors not to be fooled by cheap price tags or simplified stats. They should treat data as a conversation starter, not a final verdict, and prioritise properties that appeal to a broad base of owner-occupiers. Long-term fundamentals, lifestyle drivers, and thorough due diligence win every time.

And our gold nuggets!..... 

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Delve further if you are engaging a Buyers Agent who is reliant on this suburb data. Cate shares some good questions for consumers to ask.

David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave delves into the psychology of property. What is it that makes people gravitate to particular suburbs and specific properties? "Whatever points someone might be making to you with a sea of data, the underlying principle is this: How many people in Australia would like to live in that property, in that street, in that location? That's going to drive up your rent and your value over the next ten, twenty, thirty years." 

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike talks about the necessity of understanding the growth drivers, (and specifically the owner-occupier appeal) of the investment purchase. 

Shownotes:  https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/08/11/expert-tips-for-interpreting-data/

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🎙️ In this data-rich episode of The Property Trio, Cate and Mike dive deep into the just-released 2022–23 ATO Tax Stats. From personal income and superannuation to rental property outcomes and tax quirks, this episode sheds light on who’s winning — and who’s hurting — in Australia’s current economic environment. Cate and Mike have broken down this episode into five parts. We hope you enjoy!

💰 Part 1: The Income Illusion The average taxable income is now $74,240 — but the median is only $55,868. That $18K gap shows how averages mask the reality for most Aussies. Cate explains how this affects outcomes and affordability, while Mike highlights the gender gap: Men earn $24k more than women on average.

📉 Superannuation stats also expose a gender wealth divide:

• Median male super: $68,568
• Median female super: $54,349.  

It's not just about pay — it's about lost compounding interest benefits, care duties, and time out of the workforce.

🏘️ Part 2: Who’s Actually Investing? 2.26 million Australians own rental property — but 72% of property investors own just one property.

Only 0.85% of all property investors own six or more investment properties.

🧮 And many are feeling the pinch:
Nearly half of all investors (49.4%) recorded a net rental loss in 2022–23 — up from 41.9%. The pain is concentrated among small-scale investors. Over 120,000 individuals slipped from profit to loss in just one year.

🧾 Part 3: Systemic Gaps and Hidden Structures The tax system favours those with higher incomes and good advice:

• A $10k loss is far more valuable to someone earning $180k than $70k
• 0.2% of individuals claimed 46% of capital gains
• Many low-income investors don’t even claim depreciation

🚺 Women miss out disproportionately due to lower incomes, fewer property holdings, and reduced access to professional financial advice.

🧠 Part 4: Industry Takeaways Cate encourages buyers to educate themselves beyond property features. The property metrics are vital to success. From tax offsets, to depreciation, and ownership structures, there is more to property investing than just physical attributes. 📈 Mike reminds investors that they don’t need ten properties — just a well-structured one. Understanding your tax position and planning your post-tax cash flow is key.

🔍 Part 5: What the Data Reveals

• Median income is up slightly, but tax paid is up 16.6%
• Small investors are under stress
• Gender inequality remains stark
• Tax rules reward those already ahead

📊 This is essential listening for investors, advisors, and anyone who wants to understand the real financial picture behind the headlines.

Shownotes:  https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/08/04/latest-ato-stats-revealed/

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🎙️ In this episode of the Property Trio, we tackle a fantastic listener question from James — and it sparks a really rich conversation about life stages, investment timing, and how to juggle both effectively.

James and his fiancée are in their late 20s to early 30s. They’ve done well already: they bought their long-term home in Keysborough about 18 months ago for $950,000, using a 10% deposit. They’ve got around $820,000 owing on the loan, and they’re earning a strong combined income of between $230,000 and $250,000 a year. So far, so good. But here’s the question: with a wedding on the way, a honeymoon planned, and hopes to have two children in the next five years — should they consider investing before all of that, or wait until life settles a little and they're back to two incomes? 

It’s a great question, and the kind that gets to the heart of balancing personal milestones with long-term wealth-building.

Cate introduces the idea of “runway” — if you’ve got a couple of decades or more ahead of you in the workforce, the earlier you start investing, the more time your asset has to grow. But that only works if you’re not financially, (or emotionally) stretched too thin in the short term. Developing your plan and considering the numners is key.

Mike highlights that James and his partner clearly have good financial habits — they’ve already shown discipline in saving, and they’re asking all the right questions. That’s a huge asset. He also points out that whether they go ahead now or wait a few years, they’re well ahead of the curve compared to most people their age.

The conversation also dives into how best to fund a future investment — should they use savings in their offset account, or aim to release equity? Dave breaks down why borrowing against your home, if possible, is often more tax-efficient than dipping into savings — but also flags the reality that they may not yet have enough equity to make that work without incurring LMI again.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer here, and that’s part of what makes this episode so valuable. The trio all agree: if the numbers stack up and the couple feels comfortable with the risk, then investing sooner is ideal. But if they need a few years to tick off life events and build equity or buffers, that’s an important path too. From cheap registry office weddings to fancy winery blowouts, the Trio are candid with their ideas and forthcoming with some great options for our listeners to consider.

And our gold nuggets!..... 

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: While they are young, with one property in the portfolio, now is a great time to consider investing in a property plan.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: James and his fiancee are really good with their money! Dave encourages them to keep up that habit. Good money management habits will set them up for success.

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Knowing the numbers is the key to making the decision. Without the visibility, the decision is much harder to make.

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/07/28/balancing-family-dreams-and-property-investment/

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In this latest market update episode, Mike and Cate go duo as Dave hits the road with his family. Despite Dave's absence, the June market update is packed with insights and trends, although we do miss the lending data from Dave in this ep.

🏡 Capital City Highlights
The national market edged up in June, with every capital city posting gains except Hobart (down 0.2%). Darwin led the charge with a 1.5% monthly gain across dwellings, and houses jumped 1.8%, pointing to renewed investor interest. However, only 31% of Darwin’s suburbs are at their peak – suggesting targeted activity in a few suburbs rather than widespread growth.

📈 Unit Surge or Blip?
Cate and Mike unpack a surprise in the data – units outperformed houses in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and Adelaide. Is this a turning point for apartments, or just a one-month spike? Cate shares boots-on-the-ground experience from Melbourne, where yields over 5% are tempting investors back into the unit market. Affordability, lifestyle trade-offs, and post-COVID sentiment shifts are driving demand. Another key find is the stratification of sales prices in the various capital cities. This month, Canberra defies the 'norm' and exhibits stronger growth in the highest price quartile. What is going on in our nation's capital? Tune in to find out.  

💰 Rental Yields & Investor Trends
Rental growth has steadied nationally, with gross yields at 3.7%. Darwin is the standout with 6.5% yields and regional NT pushing a massive 7.7%. Cate suggests investors may be pushing up rents post-renovation or after long-standing leases end. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s rental growth remains sluggish at just 1.2% annually – possibly a story more about the past exodus of investors than current conditions.

📉 Listings Drop, Pressure Builds
New listings are down 11.7% compared to last year, with Hobart and Darwin seeing declines over 30%. Cate explains why tight listings don’t always mean easy buying – buyer fear of missing out leads to irrational behaviour, and competition ramps up even when the market feels slow. She also highlights the buyer activity driving Melbourne’s numbers, even if it’s not yet obvious in CoreLogic’s top-line data.

📊 Segmented Market Action
The trio (duo) dive into price segmentation and why it matters. Melbourne’s heat is coming from the $600k–$800k range, particularly in suburbs like Frankston, Werribee, and Sunbury. It’s a case of high activity in lower-price markets dragging down median figures – which might explain why data lags what buyer advocates see on the ground.

Another key find in the stratification of sales prices in the various capital cities relates to Canberra. This month, Canberra defies the 'norm' and exhibits stronger growth in the highest price quartile. What is going on in our nation's capital? Tune in to find out.

🌏 Big Picture Forces
They wrap up with macro themes: inflation, global uncertainty, interest rates, and shifting sentiment. The RBA’s rate pause caught many off guard, impacting buyer confidence. But with bond markets still pricing in cuts and global instability nudging investors toward bricks and mortar, the property market remains in motion.

Lastly, Cate and Mike marvel at Darwin's growth, however they chat about the surprising percentage of suburbs within the star-capital that are yet to reach their peak for capital growth. They try to uncover what this surprising set of statistics could actually be telling us. 

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/?p=1735

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🎙️ In today’s deep dive, Cate, Dave, and Mike tackle one of the most hotly debated and widely misunderstood concepts in Australian property investing: negative gearing.

💡 What is Negative Gearing?
Cate kicks things off by asking Dave to explain negative gearing in plain English. Dave defines it as a situation where the rental income from a property is less than the expenses to hold it—meaning you’re running at a loss. This loss, however, can be claimed as a deduction against your taxable income, reducing your annual tax bill. Dave breaks it down with an example that shows how an investor on a $150,000 salary could claim a $10,000 property loss and receive a $3,700 tax refund.

🧾 What Expenses Are Deductible?
Cate turns to Mike for a breakdown of what costs are deductible. From loan interest and council rates to insurance, advertising, and repairs, Mike lays out the most common deductions. He also covers longer-term deductions like capital works and depreciation, explaining how investors can claim on both building structure and assets like appliances. Borrowing costs are also covered, which can be claimed over five years.

📉 Is This Just a Property Loophole?
Cate challenges the idea that property investors are uniquely advantaged. Dave clarifies that negative gearing applies across asset classes, including shares and businesses. Far from being a loophole for the mega-rich, data from the ATO shows that most property investors are regular Australians—with 71% owning just one property. Cate and Dave stress that negative gearing supports the private rental market, filling a gap that government housing can’t meet.

📈 Why Lose Money?
Why would anyone invest in something that loses money? Mike explains that negative gearing is often a long-term strategy, with investors betting on future capital and rental growth. Over time, rents rise and loans reduce, leading to positive cash flow. Dave notes that this typically takes 5–10 years and depends on factors like yield, interest rates, and location.

🚫 Common Mistakes & Misconceptions
Dave warns against chasing tax deductions without regard for asset quality. Properties promoted as "cheap to hold" often underperform in the long term. Mike cautions against buying from spruikers and highlights the risk of investing in areas with high yields but poor growth prospects. ⚖️ Positive vs. Negative Gearing
While positive gearing sounds appealing, Dave and Mike explain that it’s not always feasible—especially in today’s market with rising interest rates and low rental yields. Cate highlights that high-yielding properties are often found in low-growth areas, which may not be the best choice for building wealth.ity — offering practical insights to reduce friction and risk in the finance process.

....and our gold nuggets!


Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike considers the benefit of cashflow versus capital growth, and highlights that the best investors are the ones who are focused on long term capital growth. 

David Johnston's gold nugget: Investing requires long term thinking and investors are encouraged not to chase shortcuts. Understanding how the numbers change over time and utilising negative gearing as a tool is critical. But tax deductions are a benefit, not a reason to invest. 

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: A high land to asset ratio can go hand in hand with great capital growth. High tax depreciation opposes land to asset ratio though. There is a correlation! 

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/07/14/negative-gearing-is-it-worth-it/

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🎙️ In this episode, Dave is host, exploring two hot regional markets following listener questions from Daniel and Liam. Daniel asked for a deep dive into Geelong after enjoying the recent Ballarat episode, while Liam wanted insights into the Bellarine Peninsula’s property prospects.

🏙️ Geelong: Victoria’s Thriving Regional Hub  Cate kicks off with a snapshot of Geelong, Victoria’s second-largest city, just 75 km from Melbourne. With a population nearing 300,000, Geelong has evolved from its industrial roots into a vibrant city known for its waterfront, heritage buildings, and arts scene. Geelong’s economy has endured some tough moments, such as the Pyramid Building Society collapse and Ford’s plant closure. However, as Cate explains, the city quickly rebounded. The closure of Ford in 2016 barely dented property values, with strong growth following, particularly during COVID.

📈 Growth, Migration & Infrastructure  Geelong has become a top destination for internal migration, surpassing Queensland’s Sunshine Coast according to the Regional Movers Index. The city’s population has surged, fuelled by affordability, lifestyle appeal, and job opportunities in healthcare, education, tourism, and manufacturing. Cate and Mike highlight that improved infrastructure—including freeway upgrades and better rail services—has made commuting to Melbourne far more viable. Cate also draws comparisons with Sydney’s satellite cities, noting that Geelong offers a shorter and more manageable commute than many of Sydney’s outer regions.

💡 Economic Strength & Future Vision  Geelong’s future looks bright, with a major CBD revitalisation plan aiming to create 60,000 new jobs and boost walkability and urban living. Tourism investment through the Geelong City Deal ensures continued visitor appeal and economic diversity.

🌊 Bellarine Peninsula: Coastal Living with Considerations  Turning to the Bellarine Peninsula, Cate shares insights on its stunning beaches, wineries, and growing popularity among holidaymakers and sea-changers. Key towns like Barwon Heads, Ocean Grove, and Point Lonsdale are among the most affluent. However, the team also highlights the risks tied to holiday hotspots: market volatility, land tax, and the challenges of owning a holiday home. They caution investors to carefully weigh lifestyle appeal against economic risks and longer-term practicality. This episode delivers valuable insights for anyone considering Geelong or the Bellarine Peninsula for investment or lifestyle moves!

... and our gold nuggets!

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: It pays to consider the population sizes of our cities, and to not overlook the regions. We have a lot of large regions in our nation and we need to run the ruler over all of our big cities. Household income growth, job growth and capital growth go hand in hand. And Cate promises to take Mike to Geelong!

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike touches on "second wind" cities and some of the interesting reports out there featuring Geelong. He also touches on the importance of understanding the city's population count. "If you can get Ethiopian take-away, the city is big enough!" 

David Johnston's gold nugget: The strategic relocation of the major government agencies has been a crucial part of Geelong's thriving professional eco-system. 

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/07/07/geelong-and-the-bellarine/

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🎙️ In today’s episode, Mike explores a meaty question that’s been making waves across dinner tables and developer boardrooms alike: Is the Australian property cycle still a thing, or are we living in a new paradigm? The episode is broken up into three segments this week, and the Trio delve into each.

🌀 Segment 1: The Property Cycle – Useful or Outdated? 
Dave kicks things off by exploring the traditional four-phase cycle: boom, downturn, stabilisation, and recovery. It’s a model many investors have leaned on for decades. Cate shares how this cycle once helped explain the natural ebb and flow of the market — but points out that localised dynamics are now often out of sync with national movements. Mike weighs in with the data. He notes a marked shift in consistency across the capital cities. We’ve moved from a relatively harmonious pattern of growth and contraction to fragmented, often contradictory, trends playing out at hyper-local levels. The “every 7 years your property doubles” mantra? According to Mike, that’s no longer the norm — and the numbers tell a different story.

📉 Segment 2: What's Changed and Why It Matters 
The Trio then dig into the RBA’s aggressive rate hike cycle — 425 basis points in just 18 months — and the way the market shrugged off textbook expectations. Mike explains that, despite falling borrowing capacity and rising stress, prices bounced back in early 2023 and continued climbing even while rates were still rising. Cate highlights the on-the-ground reality: while buyers paused briefly, vendors didn’t flood the market. Even as fixed-rate cliffs approached, homeowners largely tightened their belts rather than selling. That’s kept supply tight and propped up prices, even in a high-rate environment. As Mike points out, the doubling periods across the capitals are stretching well past 13–17 years, with Hobart being the only exception.

📆 Segment 3: Is the 18.6-Year Cycle the New Crystal Ball? 
Dave then broaches a long-debated theory — the 18.6-year property cycle. Mike breaks down the five key phases and explains how some analysts believe we’re now in the late-stage “Winner’s Curse” phase, if we take the GFC as the last correction point. Cate agrees there are recognisable patterns but cautions against relying too heavily on any singular model. With policy shifts, immigration swings, pandemics, and planning rules all in the mix, the market rarely sticks to a script.

And our gold nuggets!....

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate references the rule of 72, but she also reminds listeners that 'property doubling every ten years' is not a good rule of thumb.

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: After a discussion with Pete Koulizos was memorable for Mike. "Time in the market, as opposed to timing the market" is important for investors to consider.

David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave smiles as he references "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" and the magic number, 42. It's a parallel for those who look for guidance with a basic, generalised growth rate. "If life was that simple, everyone would be doing it." 

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/30/the-property-cycle/