(Epistemic status: Very loosely held and generated in a 90-minute workshop led by @Daniel Kokotajlo, @Thomas Larsen, @elifland, and Jonas Vollmer at The Curve Conference; explores how it might happen, if it happens soon. I expect there to be at least one "duh, that makes no sense" discovered with any significant level of attention that would require me to rethink some of this.)

Recently, at The Curve conference, I participated in a session that helped facilitate us writing AGI vignettes -- narratives of how we get to AGI. [1] I got feedback that folks thought it was a good vignette, so I'm publishing it here.

My scenario for Stage 1: runup to AGI

AGI is created in early- to mid-2027. It just works first time.

Anthropic does it. In many worlds, it could have been OpenAI or Google or Meta or even small startups that [...]

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.