Dave Lee on Investing

I chat with Emmet Peppers about S&P 500 inclusion update, narrative vs action, green pastures, recommended courses, survivorship bias, the keys to Emmet's success, and the combo of detachment, blended probability perspective, psychology of outcomes, and the power of the big bet.

Emmet on Twitter: emmetpeppers

Emmet's website: https://goodsoilinvestment.com/

LIVE Update on Emmet Peppers' Big TSLA Options Bet (Ep. 197), https://youtu.be/X3WE2XGS_TI

Emmet Peppers: Betting 7 figures on TSLA S&P 500 Inclusion (Ep. 194), https://youtu.be/CJUlkzFfBUU

How I Went From $1M to $30M+ In 2020: Chat With Emmet Peppers (Ep. 176), https://youtu.be/6-Sw6VcNHpQ

2014 interview with Emmet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfYqwv37bP4

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro

0:55 - Emmet’s trade update

2:28 - Risk of speculators flipping to S&P

4:40 - Tesla doing a stock offering

6:50 - S&P is a share price catalyst

9:07 - S&P’s Monday announcement

10:30 - Crafting research vs verifying what’s true

14:05 - How to discern what’s true

15:45 - Big loss example even with early success

17:15 - Stripe IPO via SPAC theory

21:20 - How did Emmet verify veracity of S&P rise theory?

24:05 - Courses for options trading

32:45 - How to learn about options

34:25 - Survivorship bias

38:15 - Role of ambition in investing

43:05 - Have you followed someone else’s trade?

45:05 - Unsureness in investment moves

50:35 - What’s the key insight that allows your brain to find opportunity?

54:00- Dave’s take on Emmet’s investment insights

1:05:15 - Efficient market hypothesis

1:10:15 - Conclusion

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Perhaps the most profound investing insight was my first major one. The one I relied on the most, and still do to this day. I call it Green Pastures, and in this video I’ll dive into what it means and how it transformed my investing.

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Yassine Elmandjra is an analyst with ARK Invest covering Bitcoin, Crypto and Blockchain technologies. We discuss what is Bitcoin, potential risks, and various future scenarios.

Yassine on Twitter: yassineARK

Bitcoin As An Investment by Yassine, https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARKinvest_091729_Whitepaper_Bitcoin_II_An%20Investment.pdf

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:00 - Start of interview

4:15 - The fallacy of BTC scarcity

5:30 - Comparing BTC to TSLA

7:50 - BTC as an asset

11:15 - BTC’s main value proposition is eliminating optionality of human decision

13:00 - Scarcity is linked to demand

17:30 - Role of BTC miners

19:44 - Forking BTC

20:45 - Software alone does not determine value of BTC

21:33 - Scarcity is not the lone value proposition of BTC

23:15 - BTC as a currency

26:20 - Pegging a commodity as an asset

27:20 - What’s the main value proposition of BTC?

30:15 - Protection of assets from seizure

32:40 - BTC more a commodity than currency

35:00 - BTC as a digital asset

37:25 - BTC’s original purpose as currency

38:25 - BTC’s weakness as currency

40:00 - Benefits of BTC choosing security over speed

42:50 - Lightning network

44:40 - Government crypto

46:00 - Government crypto as a threat to personal liberties

48:15 - Benefit of a way to transact outside of gov crypto

53:40 - Will governments ban BTC?

58:24 - Banning BTC like banning gold

1:06:20 - Banning BTC different from banning gold

1:07:40 - Institutions holding BTC opportunistic

1:08:20 - FB libra vs BTC

1:09:48 - China, Iran, North Korea on BTC

1:13:00 - On India banning BTC

1:16:45 - When does BTC become existential threat to gov?

1:22:25 - The profound nature of BTC

1:30:15 - Inherent investment risks of BTC vs stocks

1:40:00 - Tracking BTC’s demand

1:49:40 - Value by demand vs value by intrinsic value

1:55:22 - BTC is disinflationary

1:57:50 - How Yassine got hired at Ark

2:06:12 - Conclusion

Yassine Elmandjra is an analyst with ARK Invest covering Bitcoin, Crypto and Blockchain technologies. We discuss what is Bitcoin, potential risks, and various future scenarios.

Yassine on Twitter: yassineARK

Bitcoin

As An Investment by Yassine, https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARKinvest_091729_Whitepaper_Bitcoin_II_An%20Investment.pdf

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:00 - Start of interview

4:15 - The fallacy of BTC scarcity

5:30 - Comparing BTC to TSLA

7:50 - BTC as an asset

11:15 - BTC’s main value proposition is eliminating optionality of human decision

13:00 - Scarcity is linked to demand

17:30 - Role of BTC miners

19:44 - Forking BTC

20:45 - Software alone does not determine value of BTC

21:33 - Scarcity is not the lone value proposition of BTC

23:15 - BTC as a currency

26:20 - Pegging a commodity as an asset

27:20 - What’s the main value proposition of BTC?

30:15 - Protection of assets from seizure

32:40 - BTC more a commodity than currency

35:00 - BTC as a digital asset

37:25 - BTC’s original purpose as currency

38:25 - BTC’s weakness as currency

40:00 - Benefits of BTC choosing security over speed

42:50 - Lightning network

44:40 - Government crypto

46:00 - Government crypto as a threat to personal liberties

48:15 - Benefit of a way to transact outside of gov crypto

53:40 - Will governments ban BTC?

58:24 - Banning BTC like banning gold

1:06:20 - Banning BTC different from banning gold

1:07:40 - Institutions holding BTC opportunistic

1:08:20 - FB libra vs BTC

1:09:48 - China, Iran, North Korea on BTC

1:13:00 - On India banning BTC

1:16:45 - When does BTC become existential threat to gov?

1:22:25 - The profound nature of BTC

1:30:15 - Inherent investment risks of BTC vs stocks

1:40:00 - Tracking BTC’s demand

1:49:40 - Value by demand vs value by intrinsic value

1:55:22 - BTC is disinflationary

1:57:50 - How Yassine got hired at Ark

2:06:12 - Conclusion

Videos:

Tesla ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QkDHJ5hbv5rMvpRse9C-re

SpaceX Starlink ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QrcuyoiO1tjQs_yzer72EI

Square ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9Q3PIw2JOQr4qoL_fSrIZA7

Lemonade ONLY Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9StEd21tlQBndopSTek8iAZ

Company Analysis Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QMjeqM7he4G7FLhI88ZXdo

Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfibpgBinf9QdC6pEaycZvv3pGyvEbO8P

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Yassine Elmandjra is an analyst with ARK Invest covering Bitcoin, Crypto and Blockchain technologies. We discuss what is Bitcoin, potential risks, and various future scenarios.

Yassine on Twitter: yassineARK

Bitcoin

As An Investment by Yassine, https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARKinvest_091729_Whitepaper_Bitcoin_II_An%20Investment.pdf

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:00 - Start of interview

4:15 - The fallacy of BTC scarcity

5:30 - Comparing BTC to TSLA

7:50 - BTC as an asset

11:15 - BTC’s main value proposition is eliminating optionality of human decision

13:00 - Scarcity is linked to demand

17:30 - Role of BTC miners

19:44 - Forking BTC

20:45 - Software alone does not determine value of BTC

21:33 - Scarcity is not the lone value proposition of BTC

23:15 - BTC as a currency

26:20 - Pegging a commodity as an asset

27:20 - What’s the main value proposition of BTC?

30:15 - Protection of assets from seizure

32:40 - BTC more a commodity than currency

35:00 - BTC as a digital asset

37:25 - BTC’s original purpose as currency

38:25 - BTC’s weakness as currency

40:00 - Benefits of BTC choosing security over speed

42:50 - Lightning network

44:40 - Government crypto

46:00 - Government crypto as a threat to personal liberties

48:15 - Benefit of a way to transact outside of gov crypto

53:40 - Will governments ban BTC?

58:24 - Banning BTC like banning gold

1:06:20 - Banning BTC different from banning gold

1:07:40 - Institutions holding BTC opportunistic

1:08:20 - FB libra vs BTC

1:09:48 - China, Iran, North Korea on BTC

1:13:00 - On India banning BTC

1:16:45 - When does BTC become existential threat to gov?

1:22:25 - The profound nature of BTC

1:30:15 - Inherent investment risks of BTC vs stocks

1:40:00 - Tracking BTC’s demand

1:49:40 - Value by demand vs value by intrinsic value

1:55:22 - BTC is disinflationary

1:57:50 - How Yassine got hired at Ark

2:06:12 - Conclusion

Tesla stock has skyrocketed over the past year, and in this video I’m going to share I’m processing Tesla’s dramatic rise

Here’s My TSLA Exit Plan (Ep. 16), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

The coming Tesla cash cow and the short burn of the century (2018),

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/the-coming-tesla-cash-cow-and-the-short-burn-of-the-century.114625/

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I chat with @emmetpeppers tonight to get his latest thoughts on his $2.7 million TSLA options bet.

Emmet on Twitter: emmetpeppers

Emmet's website: https://goodsoilinvestment.com/

Emmet Peppers: Betting 7 figures on TSLA S&P 500 Inclusion (Ep. 194), https://youtu.be/CJUlkzFfBUU

How I Went From $1M to $30M+ In 2020: Chat With Emmet Peppers (Ep. 176), https://youtu.be/6-Sw6VcNHpQ

2014 interview with Emmet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfYqwv37bP4

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor.

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I share my thoughts on a recent interview of Elon Musk for a German conference where he talked about the important of lower battery costs, the challenge of scaling new battery technology, and perhaps most interesting he shared some details on what might be a future Tesla hatchback for Europe.

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I talk with Muji of hhhypergrowth about investing in the Software as a Service (SaaS) industry, and more specifically we focus on Cloudflare, Fastly and the possibilities of Starlink.

Find Muji on Twitter: hhhypergrowth

What are Edge Networks? https://hhhypergrowth.com/what-are-edge-networks/

What is Cloudflare, https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/what-is-cloudflare/

What is edge computing, https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/serverless/glossary/what-is-edge-computing/

Cloudflare IPO Roadshow video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbcklrmNdM

Fastly Investor Presentation August 2020, https://investors.fastly.com/files/doc_presentations/2020/08/12/2Q20-FSLY-Investor-Deck-(2).pdf

Timestamps

2:50 - Investment thesis for SAAS (software as a service)

7:10 - Cloudflare as a proxy

9:50 - Indie developers using Cloudflare

10:!5 - Cloudflare caching assets

13:25 - What’s next for Cloudflare?

14:40 - Edge networks

20:50 - Edge networks

22:08 - Extending the commute capabilities of dumb devices

23:40 - Edge servers summary

25:20 - Cloudflare plans for edge servers to do full compute

27:00 - Fastly

28:55 - Cloudflare wants to be a better internet

29:45 - Durable objects

31:35 - Cloudflare platform

32:45 - Cloudflare/Fastly compared with Amazon AWS

36:20 - Risks to Cloudflare/Fastly

37:00 - Can Starlink disrupt Cloudflare/Fastly?

42:30 - Starlink’s timeline

44:25 - Starlink ambitions for 1/2 of long haul data

46:10 - Starlink agreement with Microsoft Azure

48:50 - Development platform of edge networks + data compliance

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I dive details of a real-time trade that Emmet Peppers put on last week. He bet almost 3 million dollars on a short-term option play where he could easily lose all of it.

Emmet's Twitter: https://twitter.com/emmetpeppers

Emmet's website: https://goodsoilinvestment.com/

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor.

Timestamps

1:40 - S&P inclusion potential catalyst

3:15 - Why bullish short term

5:45 - Looking at call contracts

9:00 - High frequency trades affect on volume

11:30 - Can institutions buy 10M shares every day w/o huge run-up?

12:10 - Run-up possibility

14:05 - On the TSLA run-up til now

16:25 - Will shorts pile in?

17:25 - Benchmark indexers

20:05 - Stock price manipulation

23:55 - Psychology of the trade

26:30 - Details of the trade

28:05 - Explanation of options

29:20 - Risk and expecting to lose it

32:15 - Why concentrated on one strike?

33:30 - Let it ride?

35:30 - Doubt when the trade went against him?

37:43 - Looking at percentage of portfolio vs amount

39:25 - In event of a super run-up will he sell TSLA?

43:30 - Decent possibility of losing all of it

46:10 - Personal financial situation

47:28 - Compartmentalized pool of money

48:25 - Motivation

50:45 - Please do not make this trade

51:29 - Emmet’s advise for new investors

56:30 - Risk with macro events

59:05 - Binary vs probabilities

1:00:35 - Holding stock in revolutionary company offsetting macro risk

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