Dave Lee on Investing

In this live stream I will review the TSLA Q4 Shareholder Letter.

All eyes are on Tesla today as they reported their Q4 2019 earnings.

Tesla stock has divided investors into raging bulls and angry shorts.

And today Tesla made the case that they’re just getting started.

Tesla announced $105M GAAP net income; $386M non-GAAP net income in Q4.

Also, their cash and cash equivalents increased a whopping $930M to $6.3 billion.

This shows the critics that Tesla has plenty of cash in the bank, and with some left over.

Tesla had record deliveries of 112,095 vehicles in the quarter.

Perhaps the biggest news is Tesla announced Model Y has already started production.

Model Y production ramp started in January 2020, ahead of schedule.

And the first customer delivered are expected by the end of Q1 2020.

Model Y all-wheel drive now has an increased EPA range of 315 miles (from 280 miles).

The Model Y production ramp will be gradual as Tesla adds more machinery.

By mid-2020, Model 3 and Model Y capacity should reach 500,000 units per year.

Tesla is also expanding overseas.

They have broken ground on the next phase of the Gigafactory Shanghai.

And they expect first deliveries from their Gigafactory Berlin in 2021.

For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units.

Both solar and storage deployments should grow at least 50% in 2020.

We expect positive GAAP net income going forward, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products

Overall, Tesla showed that they continue to be on a roll.

They’re expanding to new markets and silencing skeptics.

They’re making a profit and putting more cash in the bank.

And they’re about to deliver the first Model Y vehicles by the end of March this year.

Congratulations Tesla on an amazing quarter.

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

In this live stream I will review the TSLA Q4 Shareholder Letter.

All eyes are on Tesla today as they reported their Q4 2019 earnings.

Tesla stock has divided investors into raging bulls and angry shorts.

And today Tesla made the case that they’re just getting started.

Tesla announced $105M GAAP net income; $386M non-GAAP net income in Q4.

Also, their cash and cash equivalents increased a whopping $930M to $6.3 billion.

This shows the critics that Tesla has plenty of cash in the bank, and with some left over.

Tesla had record deliveries of 112,095 vehicles in the quarter.

Perhaps the biggest news is Tesla announced Model Y has already started production.

Model Y production ramp started in January 2020, ahead of schedule.

And the first customer delivered are expected by the end of Q1 2020.

Model Y all-wheel drive now has an increased EPA range of 315 miles (from 280 miles).

The Model Y production ramp will be gradual as Tesla adds more machinery.

By mid-2020, Model 3 and Model Y capacity should reach 500,000 units per year.

Tesla is also expanding overseas.

They have broken ground on the next phase of the Gigafactory Shanghai.

And they expect first deliveries from their Gigafactory Berlin in 2021.

For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units.

Both solar and storage deployments should grow at least 50% in 2020.

We expect positive GAAP net income going forward, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products

Overall, Tesla showed that they continue to be on a roll.

They’re expanding to new markets and silencing skeptics.

They’re making a profit and putting more cash in the bank.

And they’re about to deliver the first Model Y vehicles by the end of March this year.

Congratulations Tesla on an amazing quarter.

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Download a PDF of my projected TSLA Q4 Earnings, https://bit.ly/2RSwn4B

Watch my previous videos on TSLA:

My TSLA Exit Plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

In this live stream, I share some thoughts on why I think analyst consensus numbers are useless.

They might be useful for lazy reporters to create flashy headlines.

But for the serious investor, it’s much more important to find out what the expectations are of the big holders of TSLA stock.

The big holders have their own range of expectations for revenue, gross profit, net income and cash flow.

If it falls outside the range, then it’s important to find out if it was because of a one-time charge/income or ongoing.

Also, does it change the long-term story of the company?

I also answer various questions from viewers regarding investing, Tesla, and other issues.

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Download a PDF of my projected TSLA Q4 Earnings, https://bit.ly/2RSwn4B

Watch my previous videos on TSLA:

My TSLA Exit Plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

In this live stream, I share some thoughts on why I think analyst consensus numbers are useless.

They might be useful for lazy reporters to create flashy headlines.

But for the serious investor, it’s much more important to find out what the expectations are of the big holders of TSLA stock.

The big holders have their own range of expectations for revenue, gross profit, net income and cash flow.

If it falls outside the range, then it’s important to find out if it was because of a one-time charge/income or ongoing.

Also, does it change the long-term story of the company?

I also answer various questions from viewers regarding investing, Tesla, and other issues.

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Download a PDF of my projected TSLA Q4 Earnings, https://bit.ly/2RSwn4B

Watch my previous videos on TSLA:

My TSLA Exit Plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

In this live stream, I share some thoughts on why I think analyst consensus numbers are useless.

They might be useful for lazy reporters to create flashy headlines.

But for the serious investor, it’s much more important to find out what the expectations are of the big holders of TSLA stock.

The big holders have their own range of expectations for revenue, gross profit, net income and cash flow.

If it falls outside the range, then it’s important to find out if it was because of a one-time charge/income or ongoing.

Also, does it change the long-term story of the company?

I also answer various questions from viewers regarding investing, Tesla, and other issues.

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Download a PDF of my projected TSLA Q4 Earnings, https://bit.ly/2RSwn4B

Watch my previous videos on TSLA:

My TSLA Exit Plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

In this video I share what I’m expecting in Tesla’s Q4 2019 Earnings Announcement that is scheduled for Wednesday, January 29, 2020.

Quarterly earnings tend to bring out a lot short-term focus for shareholders, but I like to take a longer-term perspective and try to discern what’s really important in the bigger picture.

Here’s what I’ll be looking for.

1. Battery/Drivetrain Investor Day

When is it?

When will Tesla start making their own cells?

Where will the new cells be made?

What’s the rollout look like?

What are the risks?

2. Model Y

What’s the Model Y production capacity at Fremont Factory?

Will there be another factory in the U.S. to produce the Model Y?

When is Model Y production targeted for at Giga Shanghai?

When will first Model Y deliveries happen?

How many Model Ys will be delivered this year?

3. China

How many Model 3s will be delivered this year?

4. Giga Berlin

When is Model 3 production targeted for at Giga Berlin?

Will Model Y be produced at same time as Model 3?

What is the first stage production capacity target?

5. Robotaxis

When will FSD features be rolled out?

What will be the first cities with Robotaxi network? When?

How long do you think driver supervision will be needed in Tesla Network?

6. Solar Roof

How many solar roofs will be installed this year?

What’s the gross margin on solar roofs?

7. Tesla Energy

How much energy storage will be deployed this year?

8. Cybertruck

Where will Cybertruck be built?

How many Cybertrucks per year do you expect to sell?

9. Tesla Semi

How many Tesla Semis are projected to be delivered to customers in 2021? 2022?

10. 2020 Guidance

How many vehicles will be delivered in 2020?

How many Model Ys will be delivered in 2020?

Will Q1 2020 be profitable? (S&P 500 inclusion)

Any guidance on FSD deferred revenue? When will it be recognized?

Any details on Fiat emission credit deal? How much per quarter, and when?

11. Revenue, profit within range

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Download a PDF of my projected TSLA Q4 Earnings, https://bit.ly/2RSwn4B

Watch my previous videos on TSLA:

My TSLA Exit Plan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9HtG-jJSTY

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

In this video I share what I’m expecting in Tesla’s Q4 2019 Earnings Announcement that is scheduled for Wednesday, January 29, 2020.

Quarterly earnings tend to bring out a lot short-term focus for shareholders, but I like to take a longer-term perspective and try to discern what’s really important in the bigger picture.

Here’s what I’ll be looking for.

1. Battery/Drivetrain Investor Day

When is it?

When will Tesla start making their own cells?

Where will the new cells be made?

What’s the rollout look like?

What are the risks?

2. Model Y

What’s the Model Y production capacity at Fremont Factory?

Will there be another factory in the U.S. to produce the Model Y?

When is Model Y production targeted for at Giga Shanghai?

When will first Model Y deliveries happen?

How many Model Ys will be delivered this year?

3. China

How many Model 3s will be delivered this year?

4. Giga Berlin

When is Model 3 production targeted for at Giga Berlin?

Will Model Y be produced at same time as Model 3?

What is the first stage production capacity target?

5. Robotaxis

When will FSD features be rolled out?

What will be the first cities with Robotaxi network? When?

How long do you think driver supervision will be needed in Tesla Network?

6. Solar Roof

How many solar roofs will be installed this year?

What’s the gross margin on solar roofs?

7. Tesla Energy

How much energy storage will be deployed this year?

8. Cybertruck

Where will Cybertruck be built?

How many Cybertrucks per year do you expect to sell?

9. Tesla Semi

How many Tesla Semis are projected to be delivered to customers in 2021? 2022?

10. 2020 Guidance

How many vehicles will be delivered in 2020?

How many Model Ys will be delivered in 2020?

Will Q1 2020 be profitable? (S&P 500 inclusion)

Any guidance on FSD deferred revenue? When will it be recognized?

Any details on Fiat emission credit deal? How much per quarter, and when?

11. Revenue, profit within range

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Watch my these previous videos on TSLA:

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

In this video I share some details on my own personal TSLA exit plan.

Lots of people follow the short-term thinking of conventional trading and investment.

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

But I look to invest in a company with a clear path to a 10x gain within 5-10 years.

Criteria for potential 10x company:

1. Disrupting large market

large market needed to grow revenue

revenue growth needed for market cap growth

2. Significantly better product or service

Ability to defend product superiority

Evidenced by love of customer

Disruptive technology superpower

3. World-class execution

Head-to-head with best in world

Ability to win in new markets

ie., GoPro vs Apple

4. Clear path to 10x valuation in 5-10 years

# units

revenue

margin

profit

multiple

In summary:

1. Disrupting large market

2. Significantly better product or service

3. World-class execution

4. Clear path to 10x valuation in 5-10 years

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Watch my these previous videos on TSLA:

Tesla Breaks 400, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwvXHRXH8hs

Tesla Crushes 500, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_VAoVj-ZxI

In this video I share some details on my own personal TSLA exit plan.

Lots of people follow the short-term thinking of conventional trading and investment.

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

But I look to invest in a company with a clear path to a 10x gain within 5-10 years.

Criteria for potential 10x company:

1. Disrupting large market

large market needed to grow revenue

revenue growth needed for market cap growth

2. Significantly better product or service

Ability to defend product superiority

Evidenced by love of customer

Disruptive technology superpower

3. World-class execution

Head-to-head with best in world

Ability to win in new markets

ie., GoPro vs Apple

4. Clear path to 10x valuation in 5-10 years

# units

revenue

margin

profit

multiple

In summary:

1. Disrupting large market

2. Significantly better product or service

3. World-class execution

4. Clear path to 10x valuation in 5-10 years

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

In this video I share an intro on how to get out of debt without following a rigid, conventional-thinking system.

By using out-of-box thinking and focusing on principles, I think you can tackle debt in a more effective and healthy manner.

The debt breakdown of the example in this video is:

auto loan - $24,000

student loans - $35 + $7k

credit card debt - $14,000

401k loan - $20,000

Example of rigid, conventional thinking:

1. Written budget every month

2. Sell everything in sight

3. Work all the time (2-3 extra jobs, both couple), no eating out, no vacations.

Contrast that with principle-based thinking:

1) Embrace minimalism - reduce desires/wants, lower spending as a result

2) Make war on debt. This will trigger lots of ideas.

3) Use Wisdom and creativity to build income.

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise