Dave Lee on Investing

In this video I share an intro on how to get out of debt without following a rigid, conventional-thinking system.

By using out-of-box thinking and focusing on principles, I think you can tackle debt in a more effective and healthy manner.

The debt breakdown of the example in this video is:

auto loan - $24,000

student loans - $35 + $7k

credit card debt - $14,000

401k loan - $20,000

Example of rigid, conventional thinking:

1. Written budget every month

2. Sell everything in sight

3. Work all the time (2-3 extra jobs, both couple), no eating out, no vacations.

Contrast that with principle-based thinking:

1) Embrace minimalism - reduce desires/wants, lower spending as a result

2) Make war on debt. This will trigger lots of ideas.

3) Use Wisdom and creativity to build income.

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

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1/20/20 update: Great news, Tesla has posted the following blog post, https://www.tesla.com/blog/no-unintended-acceleration-tesla-vehicles

Last week news broke that NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) is looking into a complaints of Tesla cars suddenly accelerating by themselves. In this video, I’m going to take a deeper look into this and share how we can process this.

CNBS shares that someone named Brian Sparks submitted a petition to NTSHA of a collection of 127 complaints of unintended acceleration by Tesla cars. CNBC notes that Brian Sparks is an individual investor who is currently shorting Tesla stock. In other words, he profits when TSLA stock goes down.

NHTSA should require everyone who petitions to declare if they’re short TSLA stock or options, or if they’ve been compensated in any way for this petition.

Important article links on why Tesla cars don't have a sudden unintended acceleration problem:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3448407/

https://teslaweekly.com/why-drivers-are-to-blame-for-all-sudden-unintended-acceleration-accidents-in-a-tesla/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/nhtsa-evaluating-tesla-driver-complaints-of-unintended-acceleration.html

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/nhtsa-reviewing-tesla-sudden-unintended-acceleration-claims/

Some quotes from Jason Hughes, Tesla hacker:

“I’ve pulled logs from at least two cars that, when looking back at news and posts, claimed unintended acceleration. The logs in both cases clearly showed the driver applying the accelerator pedal at the time of the accident. “

“Every case of “sudden unintended acceleration” with a Tesla is driver error. Period. There is no way for the vehicle to accelerate on its own like people claim. It’s also always pedal misapplication, too, where the driver presses the accelerator when they should be braking. Almost always cases where the car is slowing to a stop, then “suddenly” accelerates (because the driver hit the accelerator instead of the brake at the time they would be hitting the brake to stop the car).”

“The vehicle logs the outputs of both hall effect sensors in the accelerator pedal independently. They both must match their respective output curves during a go-pedal press in order for the car to respond to a request for acceleration. If anything is off, the car doesn’t move. If one sensor goes out, the car will operate in limp mode with drastically reduced torque.  Suffice it to say, there quite literally is no way for a Tesla Model S/X/3 to do what people claim without the driver pressing the accelerator pedal.”

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

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1/20/20 update: Great news, Tesla has posted the following blog post, https://www.tesla.com/blog/no-unintended-acceleration-tesla-vehicles

Last week news broke that NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) is looking into a complaints of Tesla cars suddenly accelerating by themselves. In this video, I’m going to take a deeper look into this and share how we can process this.

CNBS shares that someone named Brian Sparks submitted a petition to NTSHA of a collection of 127 complaints of unintended acceleration by Tesla cars. CNBC notes that Brian Sparks is an individual investor who is currently shorting Tesla stock. In other words, he profits when TSLA stock goes down.

NHTSA should require everyone who petitions to declare if they’re short TSLA stock or options, or if they’ve been compensated in any way for this petition.

Important article links on why Tesla cars don't have a sudden unintended acceleration problem:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3448407/

https://teslaweekly.com/why-drivers-are-to-blame-for-all-sudden-unintended-acceleration-accidents-in-a-tesla/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/nhtsa-evaluating-tesla-driver-complaints-of-unintended-acceleration.html

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/nhtsa-reviewing-tesla-sudden-unintended-acceleration-claims/

Some quotes from Jason Hughes, Tesla hacker:

“I’ve pulled logs from at least two cars that, when looking back at news and posts, claimed unintended acceleration. The logs in both cases clearly showed the driver applying the accelerator pedal at the time of the accident. “

“Every case of “sudden unintended acceleration” with a Tesla is driver error. Period. There is no way for the vehicle to accelerate on its own like people claim. It’s also always pedal misapplication, too, where the driver presses the accelerator when they should be braking. Almost always cases where the car is slowing to a stop, then “suddenly” accelerates (because the driver hit the accelerator instead of the brake at the time they would be hitting the brake to stop the car).”

“The vehicle logs the outputs of both hall effect sensors in the accelerator pedal independently. They both must match their respective output curves during a go-pedal press in order for the car to respond to a request for acceleration. If anything is off, the car doesn’t move. If one sensor goes out, the car will operate in limp mode with drastically reduced torque.  Suffice it to say, there quite literally is no way for a Tesla Model S/X/3 to do what people claim without the driver pressing the accelerator pedal.”

Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

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In this video I share my thoughts on the Fisker Ocean and if it has a chance against Tesla.

Watch the full Fisker Ocean reveal here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0sMYhHUIP0

Challenges that Fisker Ocean face:

1. Attention problem

Tesla is soaking up the attention, so Fisker needs to someone grab attention away from Tesla.

2. Beachhead problem

Usually need to have a beachhead to have a chance. But in Fisker’s case, they have a big problem in regards to Tesla. Hard to get a beachhead anywhere, because Tesla dominates the fanatical car and EV market.

3. Innovation problem

How to compete against Tesla who is moving so fast with new cars, software improvements, autonomous driving, battery improvements, cost improvements, service centers, superchargers, brand and reputation, safety, etc.

Car brands often need many years to establish safety in the minds of the public. Tough to get that in just a few years.

Fisker also needs to be significantly better than Tesla in numerous important ways to outweigh that risk.

Enjoy! And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

In this video I share my thoughts on the Fisker Ocean and if it has a chance against Tesla.

Watch the full Fisker Ocean reveal here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0sMYhHUIP0

Challenges that Fisker Ocean face:

1. Attention problem

Tesla is soaking up the attention, so Fisker needs to someone grab attention away from Tesla.

2. Beachhead problem

Usually need to have a beachhead to have a chance. But in Fisker’s case, they have a big problem in regards to Tesla. Hard to get a beachhead anywhere, because Tesla dominates the fanatical car and EV market.

3. Innovation problem

How to compete against Tesla who is moving so fast with new cars, software improvements, autonomous driving, battery improvements, cost improvements, service centers, superchargers, brand and reputation, safety, etc.

Car brands often need many years to establish safety in the minds of the public. Tough to get that in just a few years.

Fisker also needs to be significantly better than Tesla in numerous important ways to outweigh that risk.

Enjoy! And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

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In this video, I evaluate Cathie Wood's (Ark Invest) $6000 price target model for Tesla stock (TSLA).

Here's the direct link to Ark Invest's TSLA valuation model:

https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model

Note: I didn't critique the model itself due to time constraints but rather focused on the assumptions inputted. I think that the model itself also has significant flaws but will save that for a later time. In the video I said that $2000 wasn't my price target but rather it was the price target that was given by Ark's model if we changed the assumptions to more reasonable ones that I mentioned.

I agree with Cathie Wood on Tesla’s dominant position in the markets they are addressing. I also agree with the potential of the Robotaxi network as a lucrative software as a service model with very high margins.

However, I think Cathie Wood is underestimating some of the complexity of a Robotaxi network rollout and that skews her assumptions to be overly optimistic.

More specifically, here are some assumptions I don’t agree with .

I think 37 million EVs sold in 2024 is a few years too early.

I think 3 million Tesla cars sold in 2023 is also a bit too optimistic. My estimates are more around 2M cars in 2023.

She assumes 7.2 million Robotaxi-eligible Tesla cars in 2023. My estimate is 5.5 million.

She assumes 70% will enroll their Tesla cars as full (or close to) Robotaxis with an average usage of 116,000 miles per year.

I make much more conservative estimates with much lower participation rates in 2023. 25% will offer their cars as full-time or close to full-time Robotaxis maybe averaging 60-80k miles per year, 25% as part-time averaging 20-40k miles per year, and 50% won’t participate in 2023 (although participation rates might increase over time).

When I input my numbers into the Ark Invest valuation model, I get a much lower price target of around $2000.

I do have additional critiques of the overall valuation model they use, but will save them for another video.

Would you like to see me interview Cathie Wood directly regarding their TSLA valuation model? If so, you can contact Ark Invest directly at https://ark-invest.com/contact and ask them to reach out to me and I'd be happy to do an interview.

And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

In this video, I evaluate Cathie Wood's (Ark Invest) $6000 price target model for Tesla stock (TSLA).

Here's the direct link to Ark Invest's TSLA valuation model:

https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model

Note: I didn't critique the model itself due to time constraints but rather focused on the assumptions inputted. I think that the model itself also has significant flaws but will save that for a later time. In the video I said that $2000 wasn't my price target but rather it was the price target that was given by Ark's model if we changed the assumptions to more reasonable ones that I mentioned.

I agree with Cathie Wood on Tesla’s dominant position in the markets they are addressing. I also agree with the potential of the Robotaxi network as a lucrative software as a service model with very high margins.

However, I think Cathie Wood is underestimating some of the complexity of a Robotaxi network rollout and that skews her assumptions to be overly optimistic.

More specifically, here are some assumptions I don’t agree with .

I think 37 million EVs sold in 2024 is a few years too early.

I think 3 million Tesla cars sold in 2023 is also a bit too optimistic. My estimates are more around 2M cars in 2023.

She assumes 7.2 million Robotaxi-eligible Tesla cars in 2023. My estimate is 5.5 million.

She assumes 70% will enroll their Tesla cars as full (or close to) Robotaxis with an average usage of 116,000 miles per year.

I make much more conservative estimates with much lower participation rates in 2023. 25% will offer their cars as full-time or close to full-time Robotaxis maybe averaging 60-80k miles per year, 25% as part-time averaging 20-40k miles per year, and 50% won’t participate in 2023 (although participation rates might increase over time).

When I input my numbers into the Ark Invest valuation model, I get a much lower price target of around $2000.

I do have additional critiques of the overall valuation model they use, but will save them for another video.

Would you like to see me interview Cathie Wood directly regarding their TSLA valuation model? If so, you can contact Ark Invest directly at https://ark-invest.com/contact and ask them to reach out to me and I'd be happy to do an interview.

And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Check out my related videos to recent TSLA price action:

TSLA Breaks 400... Why I don't care, https://youtu.be/HwvXHRXH8hs

5 Things Every TSLA Investor Should Know for 2020, https://youtu.be/02lcsQ_X5v8

5 Reasons Why TSLA Will Join the S&P 500 in 2020, https://youtu.be/jTrGiDgSJEk

This video was recording in the morning of Jan 13 during market hours while TSLA stock price was around $515 and had jumped $35+ for the day.

In this video, I share why most people miss the bigger stories because they focus too much on short-term news.

Don't focus on an analyst upgrade as the reason for today's huge stock price jump. Rather, look at the bigger story of what's going on with Tesla and TSLA stock.

People are getting caught up in the short-term news that Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised his price target for Tesla to $612 from $385 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name, https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3016596. His notes says “While Tesla "has stumbled through growing pains," the company has reached "critical scale" sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow, Rusch tells investors in a research note titled "What to Do Now with TSLA Shares?" Further, the analyst believes the company's "risk tolerance, ability to implement learnings from past errors, and larger ambition than peers are beginning to pose an existential threat to transportation companies that are unable or unwilling to innovate at a faster pace." Tesla has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, advanced driver-assistance systems fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate, contends Rusch.”

But what’s really going on?

Tesla dug itself into a big hole in early 2019 by promising to have a profitable Q1 (and later quarters) but failing to deliver on that promise. Instead they showed a huge and unexpected loss that damaged credibility. Also, Tesla removed the standard range option for Model S/X in early 2019 that also hurt Model S/X orders significantly.

Q3 however was the turning point where Tesla finally realized cost-cutting measures, saw increase in Model 3 production and deliveries, and saw a recovery of Model S/X demand.

As a result, Tesla demonstrated that they are sustainably profitable with just the sales of Model S/X and Model 3.

This turning point has changed investor sentiment toward Tesla and now the focus turns to the incremental income that China-made Model 3, Model Y, and future lines will bring to Tesla.

Enjoy! And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Check out my related videos to recent TSLA price action:

TSLA Breaks 400... Why I don't care, https://youtu.be/HwvXHRXH8hs

5 Things Every TSLA Investor Should Know for 2020, https://youtu.be/02lcsQ_X5v8

5 Reasons Why TSLA Will Join the S&P 500 in 2020, https://youtu.be/jTrGiDgSJEk

This video was recording in the morning of Jan 13 during market hours while TSLA stock price was around $515 and had jumped $35+ for the day.

In this video, I share why most people miss the bigger stories because they focus too much on short-term news.

Don't focus on an analyst upgrade as the reason for today's huge stock price jump. Rather, look at the bigger story of what's going on with Tesla and TSLA stock.

People are getting caught up in the short-term news that Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised his price target for Tesla to $612 from $385 and keeps an Outperform rating on the name, https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3016596. His notes says “While Tesla "has stumbled through growing pains," the company has reached "critical scale" sufficient to support sustainable positive free cash flow, Rusch tells investors in a research note titled "What to Do Now with TSLA Shares?" Further, the analyst believes the company's "risk tolerance, ability to implement learnings from past errors, and larger ambition than peers are beginning to pose an existential threat to transportation companies that are unable or unwilling to innovate at a faster pace." Tesla has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, advanced driver-assistance systems fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate, contends Rusch.”

But what’s really going on?

Tesla dug itself into a big hole in early 2019 by promising to have a profitable Q1 (and later quarters) but failing to deliver on that promise. Instead they showed a huge and unexpected loss that damaged credibility. Also, Tesla removed the standard range option for Model S/X in early 2019 that also hurt Model S/X orders significantly.

Q3 however was the turning point where Tesla finally realized cost-cutting measures, saw increase in Model 3 production and deliveries, and saw a recovery of Model S/X demand.

As a result, Tesla demonstrated that they are sustainably profitable with just the sales of Model S/X and Model 3.

This turning point has changed investor sentiment toward Tesla and now the focus turns to the incremental income that China-made Model 3, Model Y, and future lines will bring to Tesla.

Enjoy! And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing on Soundwise

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heydave7

Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/heydave7

Elon Musk announced this past week his plan to open a new Design & Engineering Center in China that will be commissioned with the task of designing a new Tesla car.

In the video I share 9 reasons why I think this is a genius move.

1. China is by far the biggest car market

2. Locals understand the local market

3. China-designed is important to China

4. China is motivated to solve their pollution problem

5. Can always build the car at every Gigafactory

6. China specializes in mass production

7. Progress over technology

8. Sets Tesla up for the next 10 years of growth

9. Could enable Tesla to be come #1 car manufacturer in China in 10 years

Enjoy! And please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel.

Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts

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