Countries around the world are debating how to respond to the unfolding humanitarian and political crisis in Ukraine. Few people have more intimate knowledge into the thinking of the Washington national security establishment than David Sanger. Sanger is a senior writer for the New York Times covering the White House and national security. He is a three-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize, a CNN expert analyst and the author of three bestselling books, the most recent of which is The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age, which was also an HBO documentary by the same title.

Sanger recently wrote about possible end game scenarios in Ukraine. “I think you can make a persuasive case that Vladimir Putin is going to end this conflict in a lot worse strategic position than he began it,” he told The Vermont Conversation. “Three weeks ago, we were thinking that Russia's military was 10 feet tall. We now think they're kind of the gang that couldn't shoot straight. We thought that Putin was a master strategist. We now think he bit off more than he could chew … and underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated his own power. We thought that he was trying to split up NATO, and he ended up reaffirming NATO's power. These are all pretty big mistakes he made.”

What is the mood among American national security leaders? “Worried that this war is going to spread to involve us,” Sanger said. “Even if the chances are 15 or 20 or 25 percent, that's pretty significant. Worried that the humanitarian disaster is going to continue for some time. Worried the American attention to this could flag.”

Sanger also discussed his 40-year career at the Times and how he has periodically covered Washington from his home in Vermont.