Director of Quantitative Market Strategy Denise Chisholm is back on the program to lay out the economic factors driving the markets and what sectors to watch for in the global markets. Firstly, Denise tackles the ongoing recession narrative. For quite some time, her stance has been that the market has already priced in a recession. Now, she says we are in a soft landing even a no-landing recession based on historical data. She goes on to say that the consumer doesn’t gradually walk into a recession, there has to be a shock to the system and she believes we felt that shock in 2022 with the oil situation and rate hikes. Now, in 2023 we have stimulus from oil and rates are going higher, but at a slower lift. And she says the factor that nobody is looking at is that inflation is already coming down and that didn’t happen in past recessions. Denise believes the narrative for 2023 will be the stimulus around the disinflation.  Denise also notes the top three sectors to keep an eye on are consumer discretionary, metals and mining and industrials. The bottom sectors in her mind are real estate and staples. 

Recorded on February 15, 2023.

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