In this episode, we check in with Director of Quantitative Market Strategy Denise Chisholm for her bi-weekly sector watch and what recent data is telling us about the broader economy. Denise believes the markets have had a muted reaction to recent jobless claims cementing her theory that the market is experiencing a very soft-hard landing. But is this softening too quick? Hiring continues in the labour market, but the question is will this last? Denise believes month-by-month numbers are not predictive of what’s happening in the broader market. To really understand, she says you need to zoom out and focus on the year-on-year changes. The only true predictive factor to her is profits and earnings. And at this moment, it seems like companies have enough capital to keep people employed and on the payroll. She touches on how inflation dynamics are playing out very differently in terms of profits. Why are we having this bull market? How is this affecting the consumer sector? Denise says the deceleration in the market has been good for the stock market, but not good for purchasing power on the consumer. Individuals are finding it hard to dig out of rent increases, food inflation, and housing issues. She advises investors to be on the defense and offence. She sees strength in utilities, healthcare and consumer staples. And if you want to look into the offence, financials, real estate and industrials could be something to consider.

Recorded on June 27th 2024.

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