Deterrence Matters

Jim, Curtis, and Adam argue that added context is needed before deciding that the Sentinel ICBM is too expensive. Read full article here: https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/the-sentinel-icbm-remains-affordable-because-context-matters/

Putin has warned that he is ready to use nuclear weapons. Jim, Curtis, and Adam discuss whether Americans should be concerned.

Curtis, Adam, Kirk, and Chris discuss a recent article from Global Security Review by Amit Gupta called "Is Trump Right about Europe?" while exploring the value and controversies of NATO's 2% of GDP expense requirement.

Jim is joined by former Congressman Chris Stewart and Dr. Alex Littlefield to discuss the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ January 2024 publication titled Chinese Nuclear Weapons 2024. The conversation explores China’s evolving nuclear posture, its strategic ambitions, and the implications for U.S. deterrence policy.

Key topics include:

• The accuracy and limitations of open-source estimates of China’s nuclear arsenal.
• China's doctrine of “no first use” and whether it aligns with its rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities.
• The strategic shift in China’s willingness to challenge and potentially dominate the United States.
• The role of delivery systems, dual-use reactors, and uranium imports from Russia in accelerating China’s nuclear development.
• Reflections on U.S. military atrophy, outdated equipment, and the need for renewed leadership and policy direction.

The episode also features candid insights into China’s long-term goals, including its Belt and Road Initiative, and how its actions reflect a methodical pursuit of global dominance by 2048.

Adam and Jim discuss what the strategy could be behind a Russian nuclear space weapons program.

Curtis hosts three experts in Australia, Dr. Christine Leah, Dr. Carl Rhodes, and Natalie Treloar, as they discuss AUKUS from an Australian perspective and its association with deterrence.

In this two-part episode, the NIDS team dives into key takeaways from the 2025 Nuclear Deterrence Summit in Washington, D.C., and offers a critical analysis of the U.S. State Department’s annual implementation report on the New START Treaty.

Part 1: Deterrence Summit Reflections

• Jim shares his first experience attending a non-technical deterrence conference, highlighting the value of in-person networking, panel discussions, and the contrast between DOE/NNSA and DoD perspectives on nuclear policy.
• Adam and Curtis reflect on the ideological divide between arms control advocates and deterrence realists, noting the surprising number of disarmament voices within the NNSA community.
• The team discusses the importance of integrating technical and strategic communities to strengthen U.S. deterrence policy.

Part 2: The New START Treaty Report

• Curtis leads a sobering breakdown of the 2025 implementation report, emphasizing Russia’s suspension of participation, lack of transparency, and the implications for U.S. national security.
• The hosts debate the utility of arms control in an era of strategic competition, questioning whether the U.S. is clinging to idealism while adversaries exploit verification gaps.
• The episode closes with a powerful reminder: peace is not the absence of violence, but the presence of strength.

Jim, Curtis, and Adam review an article on the role of nuclear weapons in Taiwan crisis and discuss the implications of a China-U.S. conflict over Taiwan.

James, Curtis, Adam and guest, Zak Kallenborn, discuss Zak's article which explores the topic of nuclear weapons and their role in deterring great power war.

Jim, Adam, Curtis and Chris look at an article in War on the Rocks and discuss the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in nuclear stability and command and control systems.