ECON-versations with NABE

In this episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts ⁠Greg Daco⁠ and ⁠Laura Rosner-Warburton⁠ welcome returning guest Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist and Executive Director at UBS, to discuss how the recent government shutdown disrupted major economic data releases, including the October household survey and CPI report. The conversation explores the growing reliance on imputed data and alternative indicators as inflation readings become noisier in the months ahead. They also examine the evolving impact of tariffs on core inflation, with pass-through effects expected to build into next year. The episode closes with insights on labor-market cooling, immigration dynamics, and the increasing uncertainty surrounding the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.

In this episode of The Labor Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, former NABE Presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado unpack the latest twists in the U.S. labor market amid a government shutdown. They explore how the “Fork in the Road” program and recent federal job cuts are distorting employment data and weighing on payrolls. The hosts discuss the sharp decline in job postings and the growing importance of private data sources like ADP and Indeed. Rounding out the conversation, Ellen and Julia examine the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy amid data uncertainty and economic headwinds. Tune in for a concise, expert-driven look at the challenges shaping today’s employment landscape.NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.

In this episode, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton break down how the ongoing government shutdown is disrupting inflation data—and why an unprecedented pause in CPI reporting could complicate the economic outlook. They dive into the latest inflation trends, from softer-than-expected September CPI to the uneven effects of tariffs and shifting consumer behavior. With shelter costs cooling and travel prices steadying, the hosts explore what these dynamics mean for PCE inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Tune in for a clear, data-driven look at the forces shaping today’s inflation landscape.

⁠Greg⁠ is the current NABE President and Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon . ⁠Laura ⁠is a Senior Economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.

Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Inflation Brief drops every Monday following the CPI report.

Hosts Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest ADP data showing slowing private sector job growth and discuss what it means for the broader labor market. They explore whether AI, global trade, and immigration are playing a role in weaker hiring, and why government data remains essential for understanding employment trends—especially during a government shutdown. The hosts also preview the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, including expectations for a rate cut, and highlight NABE’s annual meeting in Philadelphia featuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday following the employment report.

Don’t miss the 67th NABE Annual Meeting, October 12–14 in Philadelphia. Arranged around the theme Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption, the conference will tackle challenges from geopolitical instability and shifting trade policies to climate change and evolving labor markets. Full conference, single-day, and virtual rates are available—the advance deadline is October 8, so act soon to secure your spot.

In this episode of The Inflation Brief, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton unpack the latest CPI report, which shows notable increases in both headline and core CPI. From rising food prices to the impact of tariffs, the conversation explores what’s driving the current inflation landscape—and why it’s more complicated than simple demand-pull or cost-push narratives.

Listen in as we dive into:

• Banana inflation 🍌 as a case study in import-driven price hikes

• Tariffs and trade policy as emerging inflationary forces

• Volatile travel prices, especially airfare spikes ✈️

• Persistent pressure from Owner’s Equivalent Rent

• Coffee prices up 20% YoY, adding to the heat in the grocery aisle ☕

• Why core PCE is expected to rise, and the Fed’s next move—rate cut or hold?

Greg and Laura also weigh in on the possibility of dissent within the FOMC, and why monetary conditions, supply chain shifts, and policy choices are creating some unusual inflation dynamics.

If you're curious about what bananas, coffee, and basis points can tell us about U.S. monetary policy, this is one episode you don’t want to miss.What is NABE? The National Association for Business Economics is the leading association for business economists and professionals who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has brought together top voices from business, academia, and policy—offering world-class conferences, career development, industry insights, and unparalleled networking. Past presidents include former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leadersFirst time listener and want to learn more about NABE? Visit NABE.com, connect with our LinkedIn page, or follow us on X (@nabe_econ).

Hosts Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest jobs report, preview the upcoming BLS benchmark revisions, and discuss mounting concerns about the U.S. statistical system. They examine how policy shifts—from tariffs and immigration measures to reductions in the government workforce—are shaping employment trends across key sectors such as construction, private education, and healthcare. The conversation also takes a closer look at rising unemployment rates among some groups and the growing risks to data integrity as budget cuts and staffing pressures challenge agencies like the BLS and the quality of the statistics they produce.

Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday following the employment report.

On this episode, Laura Rosner-Warburton is joined by special guest Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, for a deep dive into the latest inflation data and what it means for markets and the Fed. They unpack the mixed CPI report, surprising tariff pass-through patterns, the “gut punch” from core services inflation, and the blockbuster PPI print that shook expectations. The conversation also covers the recent firing of the BLS Commissioner, the risks to data integrity, and how ongoing modernization efforts could shape future economic reporting.

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Join the National Association for Business Economics, the nation’s leading network for business economists and professionals applying economics in the workplace, and gain access to premier conferences, cutting-edge research, and unmatched career development opportunities. Connect with top leaders from the Federal Reserve, industry, and academia across 20+ specialized Roundtables covering today’s most dynamic economic fields.

Hosts, Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado, unpack the latest jobs report, highlighting lower-than-expected job growth and historically large downward revisions that signal a broader economic slowdown. They examine how these developments have shifted market expectations toward a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with further cuts possible by year-end. The discussion also explores sector-specific trends, inflation implications, and how external factors like tariffs may complicate the Fed's next moves.

Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops ever Monday after the employment report.

Not a NABE member? Join now!

In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, we bring you a special replay of the July 2025 Business Conditions Survey webinar—featuring timely insights into the current business climate and what lies ahead.

How are U.S. businesses navigating rising costs and shifting policy expectations?The July 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey reveals a measured response from firms, with mounting pressure on hiring and investment plans, and continued increases in materials costs.

Survey Chair Selma Hepp—Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Cotality—leads the discussion, joined by survey analysts Sara Rutledge (Founder and Chief Economist, SRR Consulting) and Lester Jones (VP of Analytics and Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association). They unpack the data and answer audience questions in this data-rich conversation.

The survey reflects responses from 63 NABE members collected between July 2–11, 2025, covering second-quarter results and near-term business outlooks. The full report is available exclusively to NABE members at NABE.com/Surveys.

This webinar occurred live on July 28, 2025.

In this episode of The Inflation Brief, Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton unpack the latest CPI report, highlighting how rising energy costs and power market dynamics are pushing consumer prices higher. They explore the inflationary impact of tariffs on goods like food and beverages, and introduce a new way to track price pressures in tariff-sensitive sectors. The conversation also covers emerging disinflationary trends in shelter and travel, along with shifting consumer behavior. As inflation forecasts evolve, Greg and Laura discuss what it all means for the Fed’s policy path and the broader economic outlook.

Greg Daco, NABE Vice President; Chief Economist, EY

Laura Rosner-Warbuton, Senior Economist and Founding Partner, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC

This episode was recorded on July 17, 2025.

Not a NABE member? Join today!

NABE is the premier professional association for businesseconomists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and careerdevelopment offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.