ECON-versations with NABE

ECON-versations with NABE's monthly series The Labor Brief, hosted by Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado, returns with a timely analysis of the latest payroll report, released just before the July 4th holiday. They unpack weaker private employment figures, a slight dip in the unemployment rate, and signs of employer caution despite solid headline numbers. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve’s next move, with a possible September rate cut on the table, and explores how shifting immigration policies and new fiscal legislation could impact labor supply and growth.

Follow the podcast and turn on notifications so you never miss an episode! The Labor Brief drops every Monday after the employment report.

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NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.

This is a webinar replay from June 16, 2025.

In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, we dive into the results of the June 2025 NABE Outlook Survey. Our panel of survey analysts unpacks the top concerns weighing on forecasters, including the economic impact of tariffs, weaker-than-expected labor market gains, and a growing federal deficit. Tune in for insights into what these findings mean for businesses, policymakers, and the broader economic outlook.

Kathy Bostjancic, Survey Chair; Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Nationwide

Martin Holdrich, Senior Economist, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

Mervin Jebaraj, Director, Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Arkansas

Brian Lewandowski, Executive Director, University of Colorado at Boulder

🔗 NABE members can read the full results at NABE.com/Surveys. Not a NABE Member? Join to access exclusive content and insights at NABE.com/Join.

In this episode of ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco (Chief Economist at EY and NABE Vice President) and Laura Rosner-Warburton (Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives) are joined by special guest Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist and Executive Director at UBS, for a deep dive into the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends and what they reveal about the U.S. economy.

Together, they unpack the recent downside surprises in inflation data, discuss the role of seasonal distortions, and explore whether tariff effects are beginning to take hold—or are still to come. The conversation also spotlights an under-the-radar shift in the BLS's data collection procedures, raising key questions about the reliability of inflation measures moving forward.

With rising geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, the trio tackles the potential return of stagflationary pressures, what it means for core vs. headline inflation, and how the Federal Reserve might respond in an increasingly complex economic environment.

This episode was recorded on Friday, June 13, 2025.

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🎧📈 Tune in every Monday following the CPI report for a new episode with Greg and Laura!

Welcome back to ECON-versations with NABE! In this episode, former NABE presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the latest trends in the U.S. labor market—exploring the implications of slowing job growth, the ripple effects of employment data revisions, what restaurant hiring reveals about the state of tourism, the role of immigration in shaping the labor force, and more.

Ellen is Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Julia is President and Founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC.

Tune in every Monday after the BLS Employment Situation release!

Registration is open for the NABE Foundation Economic Measurement Seminar! Join us for the data event of the year! With 20+ sessions, 50+ expert speakers, and 100+data series discussed, EMS is your go-to event for cutting-edge insights into data and measurement techniques that shape informed decision-making.

Returning attendee? Track B brings fresh, in-depth discussions on topics like measuring the impact of natural disasters, analyzing trade through input-output tables, and identifying key turning points in the business cycle.

Don’t miss out—visit NABE.com/EMS2025 for more details and to register today!

📊 In a world awash with numbers, understanding how economic data are built—and what they really mean—is more important than ever.

This one-hour webinar previews the 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar⁠, the go-to event for professionals who depend on high-quality, real-time economic data. You'll get a sneak peek into key topics covered at the full seminar, including:

• What's really behind employment numbers
• How to interpret GDP, inflation, and productivity trends
• Ways to track business sentiment and economic turning points
• New tools and methods from top statistical agencies

Whether you're shaping business strategy, doing economic modeling, or influencing policy, this preview gives you practical insights—and shows why the full EMS experience keeps attendees coming back.

Perfect for past participants and first-timers alike. Tune in and see why economic data matter more than ever.

This is a replay from a webinar held on May 19, 2025. NABE Survey Analysts dive into the results and take audience questions. The full report can be access by NABE members at ⁠NABE.com/Surveys⁠.

Bryan Bezold, Senior Economist, Ford Motor Company

Lester Jones, CBE, Vice President of Analytics and Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association

Sara Rutledge, Founder and Chief Economist, SRR Consulting

The May 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 63 NABE members to a survey conducted April 21-30, 2025, on business conditions in their firms or industries, and reflects first-quarter 2025 results and the near-term outlook.

Welcome back to our monthly series on inflation and the Fed! This month, hosts Gregory Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by guest Omair Sharif to break down the latest CPI and PPI reports. They explore how tariffs are affecting inflation metrics and price indices, discuss shifts in their economic forecasts, and consider what direction Fed policy might take in the coming months.

Greg is the Vice President of NABE and Chief Economist at EY. Laura is Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Omair is Founder and President of Inflation Insights LLC.

Be sure to tune in every Monday after the CPI release for a new episode!

Welcome back to ECON-versations with NABE! In this edition of our monthly labor market series, former NABE Presidents Ellen Zentner and Julia Coronado break down the April employment report and explore how it aligns—or diverges—from real-time data from Indeed. Joining the conversation is Cory Stahle from the Indeed Hiring Lab, who offers insight into current wage and hiring trends and what it all could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Ellen is Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Julia is the President and Founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Cory is an Economist at Indeed's Hiring Lab.

Be sure to tune in after every employment report for our labor series as we dive into the latest data and events impacting the economy.

The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 41 professional forecasters. The initial survey, covering the outlook for 2025 and 2026, was conducted March 18-25, 2025. In order to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965,and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,800 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Kathy Bostjancic (chair), Nationwide; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas; Tendayi Kapfidze, Wells Fargo; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.

SUMMARY: “NABE panelists lowered their forecasts for economic growth for 2025 and 2026 following the April 2nd tariff announcement,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The Flash Survey calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% in the initial April survey. Similarly, the outlook for 2026 economic growth is 1.4%, down from 1.9%.
“In addition, half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”
“Inflation forecasts for this year were lifted higher, while projections for next year were little changed in the Flash Survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “Survey respondents now forecast the consumer price index will accelerate to a 3.4% annual rate by the end of 2025, up from the estimated 3.0% annual pace in the initial April survey.
“Similarly, the estimate for the personal consumption expenditure price index was boosted to an annual 3.5% by year-end, up from 2.7% in the initial survey. Panelists did not alter the forecast path for the Federal funds rate in 2025, continuing to call for a 25-basis-point rate cut in Q3 2025 and another 25-bps rate reduction in Q4 2025.”

To download the full report, please visit NABE.com/Surveys.

Welcome back to our monthly series on inflation and the Fed! Our hosts, Gregory Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton, break down the March CPI report and the latest on tariffs with Yale Budget Lab's Ernie Tedeschi.

Greg is the Vice President of NABE and Chief Economist at EY. Laura is Senior Economist and Founding Partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. Ernie is the Director of Economics at The Budget Lab at Yale University. 

Be sure to tune in every Monday after the CPI release for a new episode!