CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast

Economic Weekly: Inflation not falling quickly enough for a rate cut this year


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All eyes were on the Q3 24 CPI data last week. While inflation continues to moderate, the disinflation process is not occurring quickly enough to warrant a rate cut by year end. As a result, we have shifted our base case and now expect the first interest rate cut to arrive in February next year. In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, Senior Economist, Stephen Wu and Economist, Harry Ottley discuss the inflation data in detail and outline why we pushed back our expectations for the cutting cycle. They also preview this week’s RBA Board meeting and cover off the other data released last week, with a focus on consumer spending.   

 

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Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

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