October 05, 2023

Energy vs 1.5°C - Breaking Down the 1.5C Warming Target

58 minutes

Since the Paris Agreement coming into force in 2016, world leaders have increasingly emphasized the need to keep warming to the 1.5°C target by the end of this century, in order to avoid more dangerous impacts from climate change. Yet temperature readings around the globe show that the world has already warmed by roughly 1°C on average above pre-industrial levels. Many models suggest we will very likely exceed 1.5°C of warming, possibly in the next 5-10 years, in the absence of aggressive worldwide action to reduce emissions and (perhaps) engineer the climate.

While we have made much progress, unfortunately the world is nowhere close to that level of action. So does the 1.5°C target still make sense if overshoot seems almost certain? Is it a science-based target or a political target - and even a reasonable and just target in the first place? Is the target about holding the line at 1.5°C or getting it back down to 1.5°C by 2100? When are we likely to exceed it, how will we know, and what will be the physical and political consequences of missing it?

On S5E2 of Energy vs Climate, David, Sara, Ed, and climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Stripe and Berkeley Earth discuss all things 1.5°C.

EPISODE NOTES
0:36 – Key Aspects of the Paris Agreement
1:23 – Climate Change: Global Temperature
2:16 – Zeke Hausfather - Berkeley Earth
5:37 - Earth likely to cross critical climate thresholds even if emissions decline, Stanford study finds
7:07 – 10 Big Findings from the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change
8:25 – Adrien Abécassis - COP 27 Debrief
10:16 – The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record - Rohde and Hausfather (2020)
12:21 – Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change - Smith, et al (2015)
15:05 – How low-sulphur shipping rules are affecting global warming
15:12 – Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water into Stratosp