Engaging the Eagle - Exploring U.S. Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia

The results of the U.S. election will have important implications for most countries, including China. There may be a broad consensus on the need to compete with China among both the Democrat and Republican parties, but a Harris presidency would offer a relatively familiar set of challenges as compared to a second Trump administration.

From the threat of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports to potential expansions to new tech restrictions, a “Trump shock” would have important implications for the U.S.-China relationship. How are Chinese leaders preparing for the outcome of the election? 

As U.S.-China competition heats up, one area of concern for security scholars is that of a potential conflict over Taiwan. Some U.S. scholars and analysts suggest that the U.S. should abandon its long-standing approach of strategic ambiguity in favour of strategic clarity. Meanwhile, Chinese officials and scholars have expressed increasing concerns about changes in the U.S. One China Policy that have already occurred. What do these trends mean, and what can we expect from Washington and Beijing?

To the layperson, especially one on the other side of the world, US election procedures seem confusing and needlessly complicated. How many races are being held in November? How does the electoral college work? We’ve heard all these questions and more from our colleagues and friends over the past few weeks, so we thought it’d be helpful to answer them in a special episode.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s whirlwind tour across six countries in the Indo-Pacific region has had important implications for U.S. engagement in the region. His busy schedule included two two-plus-two meetings in Manila and Tokyo, where Mr. Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met their Philippine and Japanese counterparts for high-level discussions. These meetings

In U.S. politics, two weeks can be an eternity – but this past fortnight has been especially long. Since President Joe Biden’s suspension of his re-election campaign and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris on 21 July, the formerly fractious Democrat Party coalesced behind VP Harris’ election bid in little over a week. With record-breaking numbers of donations, first-time donors and new campaign volunteers, the momentum in the election has shifted significantly towards the Democrats. How did this shift happen, and with around 100 days to go in the election, can the Democrats sustain this excitement over VP Harris?

The national convention of the Republican Party took place amid a series of momentous developments, ranging from historic supreme court rulings to an assassination attempt against Former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. The Convention officially sealed his nomination as the GOP’s candidate and the undisputed leader of the party, while his appointment of Senator J.D. Vance also put to rest questions about who he would nominate as his running mate. With Democrats still divided over the identity of their candidate, the momentum appears to be on the side of the GOP at this point in the election - but is that necessarily true?

The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) is a track 1 intergovernmental security conference held in Singapore that gathers participants from across the region to discuss issues such as U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific. This year’s iteration of the summit saw competing visions for regional cooperation offered by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun, the former outlining a vision for network of partners and the latter speaking of China’s “five principles of peaceful coexistence.” The summit also saw a surprise in-person appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who sought to raise awareness of a mid-June peace summit on Ukraine, while hot topics for discussion included the South China Sea, the Israel-Hamas War and Taiwan. Join us as we sit down with William Choong, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at IISS, to reflect on whathappened at this year’s SLD.

The emergence of a web of scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos is not just an issue for Mekong countries. The criminal syndicates that operate from these compounds are estimated to steal over US$43.8 billion from Mekong countries every year and conduct their financial and administrative operations in other Southeast Asian countries. This poses a series of challenges for the United States. American citizens lost an estimated US$3.5 billion in 2023 to scam actors in Southeast Asia; more broadly, these criminal syndicates weaken state authority in Southeast Asia and make it more challenging for Washington to promote its strategic interests. Join us for a conversation with Alvin Camba, Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, and faculty affiliate at the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, to discuss this important topic. 

As the civil conflict in Myanmar rages on, there are ongoing questions about how regional actors such as ASEAN and the United States should calibrate their responses to the crisis. In particular, is there a practical case for the value of democracy for global interests such as peace, security and development? How are these efforts being received in Southeast Asia? Join us for a conversation with Ambassador Derek Mitchell, non-resident senior advisor to the Office of the President and the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss this important topic.

As U.S.-China competition heats up in the field of technology, Southeast Asian economies find themselves in a unique position with both benefits and risks. Investments have poured into the region from multiple parties, seeking to take advantage of factors such as mineral wealth and low labour costs to manufacture crucial components for EV supply chains. However, there are geopolitical risks that must be managed as well. Join us as we speak with Dr Cung Vu, Visiting Senior Fellow at RSIS and former-Associate Director of the Office of Naval Research Global and Chief Science and Technology Adviser of the National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office, US Department of the Navy, on this important topic.