Engaging the Eagle - Exploring U.S. Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia

From Europe to the Middle East, numerous crises have emerged during the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. This has fuelled debates over whether the U.S. has the capacity to address all of them at once – or, as some have argued, whether the U.S. should prioritise its interests and pick its fights more carefully. Join us as we speak with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on this important strategic issue.

The April 2024 trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines was closely watched by regional observers. The Philippines, which has weathered increasing assertiveness from China, signed an agreement to maintain security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. The U.S., meanwhile, is moving to integrate its defence industrial base with that of Japan, with a plan to use Japanese shipyards to repair U.S. warships. What do these developments mean for maritime security in the region? Tune in to hear Dr. Collin Koh, Senior Fellow at RSIS, share his views.

As Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently described, the U.S. alliance with Japan is the “cornerstone of [U.S.] engagement in the Indo-Pacific.” This statement was underscored by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s state visit to Washington in April 2024, outlining 70 agreements in areas ranging from defence to space and even culture at a press conference with U.S. President Joe Biden. How significant was this visit, and what are the limits of the U.S.-Japan relationship? Tune in to hear Associate Professor Bhubhindar Singh from RSIS offer his views on this important topic. 

Here at the U.S. Programme in IDSS, RSIS, we monitor topics ranging from tech to U.S. economic policy. We also write about it too, with Adrian Ang (Coordinator, USP) and Kevin Chen (Associate Research Fellow, USP) recently writing Op-Eds on the TikTok bill and U.S. economic policy in Southeast Asia respectively. Tune in to hear them give a quick rundown on their Op-Eds.

Adrian's Op-Ed: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip24033-the-us-tiktok-ban-larger-yards-and-higher-fences/

Kevin's Op-Ed: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/ip24035-exploring-waning-us-economic-influence-in-asean-despite-high-levels-of-fdi/

Based on data from numerous news and polling agencies, all signs point to Prabowo Subianto being the likely winner of Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential election. Amid questions about the composition of his government and the policies he will prioritise while in office, an important consideration is what he will bring to the foreign policy table.  

Prabowo’s election manifesto underlined climate change, the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, and potential armed conflicts with China in the South China Sea as some of the key strategic challenges facing Indonesia. He is expected to be more engaged in foreign policy as compared to his predecessor, Joko Widodo, though he claims to share his predecessor’s goal of eradicating poverty. It will be interesting to see how he will influence Indonesia’s responses to the AUKUS pact, Indonesia’s recently-signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the U.S., and Indonesia’s path amid geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China.

On 13 January 2024, Taiwan voters elected Lai Ching-te as their president, keeping the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power for a third straight term. The election had been deemed as a crucial signal for Cross-Strait Relations for the next four years, with Beijing ominously framing it as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.” 

There are concerns about how Beijing will respond to Lai’s victory, given how they repeatedly labeled him as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence”. On the other hand, Washington was quick to congratulate Lai, though President Joe Biden took pains to highlight that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence. 

It will be important to see what the results of this election mean for Cross-Strait Relations and the fragile détente between Washington and Beijing. Given Southeast Asia’s proximity and economic ties to both sides of the Strait, it will also be important to gauge their response to these developments.

As part of our efforts to better understand global security and political developments, RSIS regularly embarks on study trips to meet with and maintain close ties with fellow think tanks and agencies. One such trip was made to Washington, D.C., in early November 2023, where we met with experts from the Centre for Naval Analyses, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Stimson Centre, American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, Wilson Centre, and the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS).

The prospect of a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a popular topic of discussion. We also discussed a range of other topics, including U.S.-China competition, China’s economic slowdown, the direction and coherence of U.S. policy on Southeast Asia and the implications of the Israel-Palestine War on U.S. foreign policy. Join us for this short episode as Dr. Sinderpal Singh, the head of the RSIS delegation, shares his thoughts about our research trip to D.C.

The United States and Myanmar have a long and storied history of bilateral ties. 10 years ago, ties appeared to be on the mend, with visits to the country by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama followed by the easing of sanctions. In recent years, however, the relationship has been defined by two crises: the Rohingya Crisis that erupted in 2017, and the February 2021 Coup that deposed the democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). In response to the crises, the U.S. doubled down on targeted sanctions against Myanmar officials. President Joe Biden’s administration has also made it clear that it does not recognise Myanmar’s current regime, and even downgraded its ties in December 2022 by not replacing the then-incumbent ambassador.  

The prospects for a rapprochement between Washington and Naypyidaw seem dim. However, from online social movements in support of the anti-junta forces to U.S. support for ASEAN’s position on the Myanmar crisis, there are many interesting elements of the relationship to discuss. Join us for this exciting episode of Engaging the Eagle as we delve into these issues. 

China’s digital footprint has been expanding rapidly in Latin America in the last two decades. Neither the U.S.-China tech war nor the U.S.-led global campaign aimed at Chinese tech firms seemed to be able to reverse the trend. Much of the policy discussion in the western media surrounding China’s digital expansion focuses on the supply side, emphasizing the potential risks of adopting Chinese technologies. Yet there remains scant research on the demand side—namely, how policymakers in developing countries perceive Chinese tech firms and how they maneuver amid the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China.

Why did Chinese tech firms become key telecommunication equipment providers for Latin America despite geopolitical headwinds? To shed light on the issue, Dr. Jin (Julie) Zeng examines local stakeholders’ perceptions of Chinese tech firms and their choices between development and national security. Using Brazil as a case study, she argues that corporate strategies (emphasizing quality, prices, services, and financing), as well as the pragmatic approaches of regulators and internet service providers (ISPs) enable Chinese tech firms to expand market shares in Brazil. Instead of securitizing Chinese technologies, Brazilian regulators and ISPs have been eager to bridge the digital divide and benefit from the fierce competition among global tech firms.

On October 1, the U.S. government narrowly avoided a government shutdown by passing a continuing resolution, a type of stopgap spending bill that funds federal agencies at 2022 levels for 45 days. The U.S. is one of the few political systems in the world in which federal agencies cannot spend or obligate any money without an appropriation or approval from Congress – in other words, if Congress fails to pass 12 annual appropriation bills, the government will shut down, as it has 10 times over the past 4 decades. Yet the danger is not past yet. There are concerns that the gesture may only have delayed an inevitable shutdown, especially after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) was ousted from his role as House Speaker. Moreover, the glaring absence of aid for Ukraine in the continuing resolution has raised worries about the U.S. commitment to the country, and about U.S. foreign policy at large as Washington continues to be beset by domestic woes.