In this fascinating episode, Andres Vinelli, chief economist at CFA Institute, sits down with Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, to explore the geopolitical implications of a multi-polar world. Listen in as we discuss the role of the US and emerging markets, and provide tips for applying a geopolitical strategy toolkit to investing. We also forecast the resolution of the debt ceiling and analyze why a professional investor should care about geopolitics. Get ready to dive into the idea of a multi-polar world being a discordant one, and how this can impact investment profiles in different regions or sectors in the economy.

Join us as we continue the conversation by examining strategies emerging market economies can use to benefit from engaging with both the US and China. We'll also discuss how investors can use material constraints to assess political paths of least resistance. Don't miss our analysis on the irony of China having withdrawn their efforts to finance infrastructure projects around the world, and the efforts of the US to counter the Belt and Road Initiative. This episode is packed with insights on investing in emerging markets and commodities in a multi-polar world — you don't want to miss it!

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(0:00:13) - Geopolitics and Investing (10 Minutes)

Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clock Tower Group, and I explore the geopolitical implications of a multi-polar world. We examine the role of the US and emerging markets, and provide tips for applying a geopolitical strategy toolkit to investing. We forecast the resolution of the debt ceiling and discuss why a professional investor should care about geopolitics. We analyze the idea of a multi-polar world being a discordant one, and how this can impact investment profiles in different regions or sectors in the economy.

(0:10:40) - Assessing Geopolitics for Asset Allocation (13 Minutes)

We explore strategies emerging market economies can use to benefit from engaging with both the US and China, and how investors can use material constraints to assess political paths of least resistance. We also discuss the irony of China having withdrawn their efforts to finance infrastructure projects around the world, and the efforts of the US to counter the Belt and Road Initiative.

(0:23:23) - Investing in Emerging Markets and Commodities (2 Minutes)

Marko Papic and I discussed the global investment landscape in a multi-polar world. We looked at how countries like Spain, America, Brazil, Netherlands, and Japan are increasing their CAPX spending, and how this could create a new CAPX-driven cycle, even without a single country to replace China. We examined the impact of this cycle on the US dollar and emerging markets, as well as the strategies investors can use to benefit from this shift in the global economy.

Susan HayesCulleton, CFA, a noted author, economist, and managing director of The HayesCulleton Group, shares her experience in building a successful financial literacy program called "Money Matters" that has been rolled out in every high school in Ireland. We discuss the importance of relationships, understanding the teacher and student perspectives, and having a clear outcome in mind when creating an engaging and interactive curriculum. We also delve into Susan's creative approach to teaching financial concepts, such as her character Paul who learns about alternatives to direct property investment. By using relatable, real-life examples and engaging narratives, Susan aims to make financial education more accessible and enjoyable for young people. Throughout our conversation, we discuss the challenges of teaching financial literacy to young people and address misconceptions surrounding the stock market as gambling. We emphasize the emotional aspect of money and the importance of understanding our learned behaviors and attitudes toward it. Additionally, we explore the process of deciding the chapters for the financial literacy book "Money Matters," focusing on various ways to make the content relatable and engaging for teenagers. The inclusion of CFA charterholders' profiles provides valuable insights into potential careers, and incorporating networking lessons helps students develop essential life skills. Finally, Susan shares her willingness to assist other countries and societies in adopting this model for financial literacy education. Join us for an engaging and informative discussion with Susan, and discover the importance of financial literacy in today's world.   Chapters:   (0:00:04) - Building Financial Literacy (0:09:15) - Real Estate Investment (0:12:13) - Navigating Financial Literacy Education (0:18:57) - Financial Literacy, Career Paths and Networking (0:28:01) - The Key to Success (0:31:26) - Financial Literacy With Susan HayesCulleton   Chapter Summaries:   (0:00:04) - Building Financial Literacy (9 Minutes) In this episode of Guiding Assets, we hear a success story from SusanHayes Culleton, CFA, a noted author, economist, and managing director of The HayesCulleton Group. She shares her experience in building a financial literacy program called "Money Matters" that has been rolled out in every high school in Ireland, focusing on personal finance, entrepreneurship, and investing. Susan emphasizes the importance of relationships, understanding the teacher and student perspectives, and having a clear outcome in mind when creating an engaging and interactive curriculum.   (0:09:15) - Real Estate Investment (3 Minutes) In this part of the conversation, we delve into the creative process behind Susan's approach to teaching financial concepts, such as her character, Paul, who learns about alternatives to direct property investment. By using relatable, real-life examples and engaging narratives, Susan aims to make financial education more accessible and enjoyable for young people. We also discuss the challenge of overcoming biases and misconceptions around the financial markets, emphasizing the importance of demystifying these topics for a wider audience.   (0:12:13) - Navigating Financial Literacy Education (7 Minutes) Throughout this conversation, we discuss the challenges of teaching financial literacy to young people and address misconceptions surrounding the stock market as gambling. We also emphasize the emotional aspect of money and the importance of understanding our learned behaviors and attitudes toward it. Additionally, we examine the role of teachers in educating students about personal finance, entrepreneurship, and the stock market, while considering their varying interests and confidence levels. Furthermore, we explore the importance of building relationships with stakeholders and being open to feedback in the development of financial literacy curriculum, ultimately prioritizing the needs of students and teachers.   (0:18:57) - Financial Literacy, Career Paths and Networking (9 Minutes) We explore the process of deciding the chapters for the financial literacy book "Money Matters," focusing on various ways to make the content relatable and engaging for teenagers. The inclusion of CFA charterholders' profiles provides valuable insights into potential careers, and incorporating networking lessons helps students develop essential life skills. We also discuss the possibility of applying this model to other disciplines, such as STEM, and the ongoing collaboration on a new book called "Engineering World." Finally, Susan shares her willingness to assist other countries and societies in adopting this model for financial literacy education.   (0:28:01) - The Key to Success (3 Minutes) In this segment, Susan shares her first job in the industry as part of a stock market training company and the advice she would give to her younger self — focusing on the importance of relationships, empathy, and knowing where you want to go in life.

Dive deep into the world of asset allocation with Anubhuti Gupta, CFA, CIPM, a senior principal consultant for Mercer's Wealth business in Singapore. We discuss the impact of inflation on portfolios and how investors can structure them for resilience amidst inflationary pressures. We also explore the challenges of diversification in 2022 and the importance of private markets in portfolio allocation. Additionally, we touch on the benefits of investing governance, the role of Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) providers, and the importance of keeping an open mind throughout our investment careers. Join us in this insightful conversation as we navigate the ever-changing landscape of investing and asset allocation.

Chapters:

(0:00:03) - Asset Allocation in Inflation (0:09:26) - Diversifying Portfolios in an Unpredictable Market (0:20:02) - Benefits of Investing Governance (0:23:43) - Keeping an Open Mind

Chapter Summaries:

(0:00:03) - Asset Allocation in Inflation (9 Minutes) We discuss the impact of inflation on portfolios and how investors can structure their portfolios for resilience in the face of inflationary pressures. Anubhuti highlights the importance of focusing on energy efficiency, security, infrastructure, technology, and materials to facilitate the transition. We also delve into the potential for value stocks to outperform in the current market environment, as growth equities may struggle to recover to previous market highs'

(0:09:26) - Diversifying Portfolios in an Unpredictable Market (11 Minutes) Diving into the challenges of diversification in 2022, we discuss the risks associated with relying on traditional strategies like the 60/40 portfolio. With equities and bonds producing negative results simultaneously for the first time in many investors' careers, it is essential to consider more dynamic approaches, such as incorporating specialist downside risk mitigation strategies or using real assets. We also touch on the importance of private markets in portfolio allocation, emphasizing their continued relevance for those with long horizons and a desire for innovation. However, it is crucial to reassess portfolio risk and exposure levels in the context of both public and private markets.

(0:20:02) - Benefits of Investing Governance (4 Minutes) As we examine the disconnect between private real estate and REITs, we consider the potential opportunities that may arise when valuations for private real estate funds align with reality. We stress the importance of maintaining a long-term view and avoiding short-term panic-driven decisions that may be detrimental to the portfolio. Discussing governance and the outsource CIO (OCIO) model, we highlight the benefits of working hand in hand with asset allocators to manage assets as opposed to in-house management. This approach allows for streamlined decision-making processes and the ability to take advantage of market dislocations and emerging opportunities.

(0:23:43) - Keeping an Open Mind (3 Minutes) In this conversation, we delve into the concept of Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) providers and their role in easing the pain points for asset allocators and investment teams. By outsourcing certain aspects of the value chain to OCIO providers, entities can focus on high-value activities where they excel. Additionally, we share some personal insights from Anubhuti Gupta's career journey, emphasizing the importance of keeping an open mind for both young and seasoned professionals in the industry.

In this episode, we dive deep into strategies for building robust market forecasts with Gerry Fowler, CFA, Head of European Equity Strategy and Global Derivative Strategy at UBS. We discuss the importance of leading indicators in understanding potential future outcomes for market and business cycles, as well as the impact of rising interest rates on corporate profitability and the potential economic ramifications. We also explore how harnessing your strengths and leaning into them can lead to a successful career. Join us as we uncover the secrets to navigating the ever-changing financial landscape and making the most of the opportunities it presents.

Chapters:

(0:00:00) - Building Market Forecasts (0:14:13) - Navigating Interest Rates (0:21:16) - Harnessing Strengths to Succeed in Career

Chapter Summaries:

(0:00:00) - Building Market Forecasts (14 Minutes) In this episode, we explore strategies for building more robust market forecasts with Gerry Fowler, CFA, Head of European Equity Strategy and Global Derivative Strategy at UBS. We discuss the importance of leading indicators in understanding potential future outcomes for market and business cycles. By examining these indicators, investors can gain insight into the expansion, slowdown, contraction, and recovery phases of the business cycle. Fowler highlights the importance of macro regime distributions, which help identify how market performance, profits, and valuations cluster around the business cycle. He emphasizes the need for humility when interpreting leading indicators, as they are often mere guesses with inherent errors.

(0:14:13) - Navigating Interest Rates (7 Minutes) We discuss the impact of rising interest rates on corporate profitability and the potential economic ramifications. Despite healthy jobs growth and elevated inflation figures, there are signs that the tightening of credit standards and weakening demand for credit will affect profitability. The lag effect of rate hikes and the hidden credit tightening in private enterprise, along with the increase in bankruptcies, suggests that there may be a need to brace for a potential economic downturn. The conversation also touches on the Federal Reserve's potential pivot to a more dovish position, the likelihood of a recession starting in the third quarter of this year, and the expectation of aggressive rate cuts from the fourth quarter.

(0:21:16) - Harnessing Strengths to Succeed in Career (2 Minutes) Reflecting on my career in finance, I recall my first job at Salomon's with Barney in Australia and my journey into derivatives strategy and portfolio management. I discuss the importance of knowing one's strengths and leaning into them for success. Additionally, I emphasize the value of becoming a specialist while maintaining a broad network of colleagues, competitors, and providers for a well-rounded perspective as you progress in your career.

In this thought-provoking episode, we dive deep into the challenges facing the European banking sector with expert guest Joachim Klement, CFA, an investment strategist at Liberum. We tackle the recent confidence breakdown in the industry, the potential risks of bank bailouts, and the impact on bond markets, while also reflecting on Joe's experience in the financial industry and his valuable advice to "do your own thinking. " Don't miss this insightful and timely discussion as we navigate the complex world of European banking and uncover the critical differences between now and the 2008 financial crisis.   Chapters:   (0:00:04) - European Banking Confidence (0:13:19) - The Risk of Bank Bailouts (0:18:32) - Do Your Own Thinking   Chapter Summaries:   (0:00:04) - European Banking Confidence (13 Minutes) In this episode, we explore the current challenges in the European banking sector with Joachim Klement, CFA, an investment strategist at Liberum. We discuss the recent confidence breakdown in the banking industry, starting with Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, and how it affected other banks like First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse. Joachim also shares his insights on the UBS and Credit Suisse deal and the potential impacts of the current turmoil on various sectors. He emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with positive free cash flows and highlights the differences between the current situation and the 2008 financial crisis.   (0:13:19) - The Risk of Bank Bailouts (5 Minutes) In this portion of the episode, we examine the risk of a liquidity crisis due to a potential bank run in Europe and the impact on bond markets. We also discuss the divergence in expectations between the US and European central banks, highlighting the potential consequences of cutting interest rates too soon. Furthermore, we touch on the unintended consequences of bank bailouts and the possibility of future regulation akin to the Dodd–Frank Act.   (0:18:32) - Do Your Own Thinking (1 Minutes) As we wrap up our conversation with Joachim Klement, CFA, we reflect on his first job in the financial industry as an investment consultant for UBS. Joe shares his top piece of advice for his younger self: do your own thinking. He emphasizes the importance of forming one's own opinions rather than simply adopting the views of others, as this can lead to defending positions one may not genuinely believe in.   Listen for free and browse our back catalog of Guiding Assets episodes: https://link.chtbl.com/guidingassets

During the pandemic, many people creatively changed their approach to work—building new paths to wealth that leveraged their personal skills and life priorities. Mike Wallberg, CFA, and Barbara Stewart, CFA, researcher, keynote speaker, and author of Rich Thinking, discuss these changes, including what it means to have a personal business model and invest in yourself and what we can learn about our clients and ourselves as a result.

Find the full line-up of CFA Institute podcasts, visit https://cfainst.is/podcasts.

Global FX markets with $2.1 trillion daily spot turnover far overshadow fixed income and equities markets in size, yet more can be done to assure their integrity and effective functioning.  Mike Wallberg, CFA, speaks with Dagmara Fijalkowski, CFA, head of global fixed income and currencies at RBC Global Asset Management, about the FX Global Code, a set of principles that goes beyond a code of ethics to embody industry best practices. Fijalkowski explains how the FX Global Code has helped to improve the governance, internal processes, best execution and risk management practices surrounding FX transactions for her firm and their clients.

Find the Enterprising Investor article here: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2023/02/24/global-fx-code-of-conduct-is-now-the-time/

One approach that can help investment advisors go beyond the familiar “Know Your Client (KYC)” information gathering is to use a genogram to map a client's family history. The genogram looks like a family tree, but also provides detailed information about current and past family relationships and helps identify financial patterns and family values over generations. Mike Wallberg, CFA, speaks with Kim Curtis, CFA, CEO of Wealth Legacy Institute, Inc. and best-selling author, about the genogram technique to help advisors better understand a client’s family dynamics that can lead to more productive wealth management planning and deeper client relationships. Thank you for listening, if you enjoyed this episode please tell a friend and be sure to leave a review.

To find the full line-up of CFA Institute podcasts, visit https://cfainst.is/podcasts.

The tried and true rules of the formal debate model can be useful to learn the skills needed to disagree productively, find common ground, and influence decisions, whether you’re presenting an analysis to colleagues in your firm’s security selection process or fielding portfolio performance questions from clients. Mike Wallberg, CFA, speaks with Julia Dhar, Managing Director and Partner, Boston Consulting Group, about debate model techniques and other behavioral insights to help investors sharpen investment ideas and improve client relationships.

Thank you for listening, if you enjoyed this episode please tell a friend and be sure to leave a review. To find the full line-up of CFA Institute podcasts, visit https://cfainst.is/podcasts.

In the wake of the FTX debacle, investors in cryptoassets have seen the need to critically reassess and strengthen their due diligence and risk management processes, and for regulators globally to provide greater clarity and consistency in regulating the space. In this episode, Mike Wallberg, CFA, and Martin Leinweber, CFA, Digital Asset Product Strategist at MarketVector Indexes, discuss the  lapses in investors’ due diligence with regard to FTX, the role and valuation of cryptoassets in balanced portfolios and diverse ways in which investors can invest in the space, beyond cryptocurrencies.

Read the Report: Cryptoassets: Beyond the Hype

Online Course: DeFi: Introduction to Blockchain and Cryptocurrency

Thank you for listening, if you enjoyed this episode please tell a friend and be sure to leave a review. To find the full line-up of CFA Institute podcasts, visit https://cfainst.is/podcasts.