EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap

This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we’d make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead:

• Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27
• Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43
• 2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34
• 2023 Predictions 54:51

2022 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don’t deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Yes
2. Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Yes
3. Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Yes
4. Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores No
5. Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired No

Jason Total Score: 3 of 5

Scot:

1. Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS No
2. Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Yes
3. Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Yes
4. Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US No
5. Fabric gets acquired No

Scot Total Score: 2 of 5

Jason pulls out the rare win!

2023 Predictions

Jason:

1. At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City)
2. BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL.
3. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network
4. Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks.
5. Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US)

Scot:

1. Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping
2. Shopify is acquired
3. An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it’s adopted and how cool it is
4. E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates.
5. Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery

ChatGPT

“based on trends and current developments in e-commerce, it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry, with an emphasis on mobile commerce, personalize shopping experiences, and increased use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce”

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Episode 301 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 19th, 2023.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.