In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Jeffrey, Evan, Brendan, Kelly and Paul.  We address Kelly Criterion and other risk/reward considerations (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), crystal balls, the "Possibility Effect" cognitive bias and a base-rate analysis of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, issues with IVOL, trading ETFs at Vanguard, the perpetual withdrawal rate, expense ratios and bucket strategies, basic retirement considerations, issues with QYLD  and an examination of Big Ern's leveraged retirement portfolios.

It's another barn burner!   Real Wrath of God type stuff!

Links:

Kelly Criterion article:  Leverage and The Line Between Aggressive and Crazy (rhsfinancial.com)

Golden Butterfly analysis with Heat Map:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts

Episode 89 re QYLD:  Podcast Episode 89 | Risk Parity Radio

Big Ern Article Re Leveraged Portfolios:  Lower risk through leverage – Early Retirement Now

Big Ern Article Re Gold In Portfolios:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

Episode 40 Re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity Radio

Portfolio Analysis Comparison Of Big Ern Leveraged Portfolio With And Without Gold:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

The SWAN ETF:  SWAN - BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF - Amplify ETFs

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