Future Projection

Episode 169: Mailbag—How To Know When A Prospect Change Is Real


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Ben and Carlos answer listener questions about how we know when to re-adjust expectations for prospects and the difference in value between center fielders and shortstops.

Time Stamps:

  • (3:00) How do you know if a player is hitting a high percentile outcome vs. adjusting possible expectations?
  • (8:00) Why it’s hard to deal with specific percentile projections
  • (16:00) Why approach changes are incremental
  • (18:00) Being skeptical of surface level results with no process changes
  • (25:00) How much more do teams value shortstops vs. center fielders?


Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected].

Future Projection Twitter: @FutureProPod

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Newsletter: Fringe Average

Baseball America Website



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