On this episode of the MODERN MEXICO PODCAST, host Nathaniel Parish Flannery speaks to journalist Ioan Grillo about the evolving dynamics of organized crime in Chiapas, Mexico.

Recent events in Chiapas raise questions about what the government can do as powerful organized crime groups move into the state and local criminals adopt increasingly violent tactics.

Over 98% of the murders recorded in Chiapas go unsolved.

Grillo describes the current dynamic in Chiapas as "oppressive," "fractured," and "worsening."

Chiapas has for centuries been a state where the federal government in Mexico City has struggled to exert control. Over the last thirty years many small towns controlled by the Zapatista rebel army have established their own autonomous fiefdoms.

So this dynamic of weak federal government capacity and the existence of local strongmen has existed for a long time in Chiapas.

But, in the last few years this nexus or synergy between local political bosses and organized crime groups seems to have become even more pervasive.

Overall, Grillo gives Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador a "D" for his security policies.

Parish Flannery says, "Right now in Chiapas the police are only managing to solve around one in every hundred murders in the state. Social programs and soldiers are not a sufficient strategy for tackling violence. It just seems like it’s going to be impossible to improve the security dynamic in Mexico unless the new president takes the initiative to make a massive, multi-billion investment in improving the capacity of Mexico’s police and prosecutors."