On Tuesday, the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District drew the attention of election watchers everywhere. Naturally, then, the race in the Volunteer State vacuumed up our attention for this week’s podcast! Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 percentage points, 54%-45%, to keep the 7th District in Republican hands. However, that still represented a 13-point swing to the left from the 2024 election, when President Donald Trump carried the seat by 22 points, 60%-38%.

With the calendar about to turn to 2026, this special election served as a appetizer for next year’s midterm contests. To help unpack what happened in Tennessee and what it could say about the larger electoral situation, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections. They explored the special election’s high turnout, the district’s swing to the left from 2024, the higher levels of spending from outside groups, and how the result fits into broader special election trends since Trump took office. They then discussed what all of this could mean for next year’s U.S. House elections.

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