Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party. 

And if you're looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry's live stream which you can watch on X! (You'll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)



Music for this week:

Open: Beethoven – Symphony No. 9 (Finale ‘Ode to Joy’), via Spat Music

Close: America the Beautiful — Simon Armitage Music, via MotionArray

Despite the kerfuffle that President Trump is initiating a Constitutional crisis, the confusion and frustration surrounding his executive actions fit within a fairly common modern trend: Congress’s institutional inaction leaves a power vacuum which the president sets out to fill. In anticipation of the Supreme Court weighing in, Henry sits down with the inestimable John Yoo to discuss the larger constitutional questions that Trump’s test cases are likely to settle. Tune in for a refresher on the distinction between the separation of powers and checks and balances; an explanation of the unitary executive theory; and considerations on how justices may come down on the decisions that will be put before them.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party lost in November after moving too far to the left on its social and economic stances. But these are hardly conventional times, so why not let an outsider have a say? Henry sits down with Maurice Mitchell, National Director of the Working Families Party, to discuss the WFP’s aim to win elections by offering a progressive alternative to the corporate-aligned Democratic Party. Maurice takes us through the WFP’s break with Democrats in 1998 and its 26-year history; he points out the attention they’ve achieved nationwide and the obstacles they’ve faced in a rigid two-party system. Further, he disputes the calls for centrism following Kamala Harris’s defeat and illustrates how the Working Families Party platform has a future in a country hungry for change.

A quarter century after publishing his famous book about the ascendant bohemian bourgeoise ("Bobo") upper class, New York Times columnist David Brooks has found cause to reconsider the new elite. He and Henry sit down to discuss the vanities of that insular group, the incongruence of their public espousals and private behavior, and how some form of nationalist populism was the public's best available means of course correction.

Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics' Senior Elections Analyst and author of The Lost Majority, returns to share his insights on America's versicolored electorate. He and Henry discuss the country's small-C conservative disposition that Donald Trump won over with his "revolution in common sense". They consider the profound difference between the start of Trump's second term, exemplified by his day one preparedness, along with the challenges he'll face in juggling his coalition's disparate priorities. On the other hand, they consider the great task before the Democratic Party — an uphill battle with a let's-rock-the-boat base whose preferred candidates don't appeal to the center.

If you wanna win an election, you gotta build a coalition—just don't expect it to last forever. As we enter the second quarter of this American century, Henry sits down with Karl Rove to discuss the coalition he helped forge at the millennium's beginning. But they don't stop there! Karl and Henry find valuable lessons in the Republican Party's working-class appeal during the McKinley era, on to the Compassionate Conservatism of the aughts, and finally to Donald Trump's assertive MAGA movement.

Beyond the Polls is back! This week, Henry sits down with the Washington Post's Jason Willick to go over Donald Trump's haul ahead of his second inauguration. The duo speculates on everything from the president-elect's comments about desired new territories, defense aspirations, and tariffs, before considering how all of this fits with the MAGA coalition and how his maneuvers will play with the judiciary that Trump helped build in term one. 

Plus, Henry surveys the electorate's sentiments on presidents past and present as laid out in the latest Economist/YouGov poll.

For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party's options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way, joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections. 

Henry's off for the holidays, but stay subscribed—or get started if you haven't already!—and we'll see you back in 2025.  

This week on Beyond the Polls, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to cover his new book, Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How We Can Revive the American Dream. They dive into the early roots of the midcentury's cultural upheaval and consider why Americans seem ready to turn back the tide.

Plus, Henry eschews Beltway insider opinions in favor of ordinary Americans' take on Trump and Harris post-election, along with Trump's cabinet selections, as shown in recent polling data.  

It's an all-rant episode this week as Henry breaks down the latest polling on Donald Trump's boosted favorability. (They like him. They really like him!) Plus, we go abroad to take a look at the populist movements that are sinking European establishmentarians who were meant to keep this global movement at bay.