Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. 

Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss for statewide office in Wisconsin, and considers what it means for the DSA. And he takes a look at an effective use of AI-generated advertising in Catalina Lauf's run for Byron Donald's Florida House seat. 

Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: Forward. And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert. 

Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong benefited from opponents' imploded campaigns, moving from fourth (at best) to the top of the field. He and Henry look to the coming general in Wisconsin 3, where Rebecca Cooke is expected to challenge Republican Derrick Van Orden in a rematch. They also consider how the Democrats' leftward lunge may give Tom Tiffany a better shot than previously thought, given his rural House district (Wisconsin 7) and Trump's low approval. 

Plus, Henry heads to Michigan and beyond to explain that the DSA's moment has come—before imparting some advice to the ambitious within its ranks who might seek the presidency. And, finally, we inspect another ad from Darline Graham, who seems ready to state some positions.  

Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

A primary-palooza is days away, with contests set for August 4th in Kansas, Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. But all eyes are on Michigan, a bellwether state with ambitious representatives tugging hard at it left, right, and center. Henry's here to shepherd us through the state's long list of battleground congressional districts. And, of course, he closely inspects the turnout trends and insider behaviors that portend a good day for Abdul El-Sayed and the DSA — but what will all this mean for the general? Tune in to find out!

Plus, Henry glances at a trio of ads featuring candidates Darline Graham (South Carolina), Rebecca Cooke (Wisconsin), and Troy Jackson (Maine).

This series is all about pushing past the dichotomies of American politics to better understand why voters prefer X to Y, Yea to Nay, or Red to Blue. Our friends at the Pew Research Center are of a like mind, so we asked Director of Politics Jocelyn Kiley to join Henry to discuss the center's new political typology: Beyond Red vs. Blue. Tune in to understand Pew's methods and analysis of the American electorate's breakdown, ranging from Leftward Progressives to the No Apologies Right, with an Order and Opportunity Left, a Tuned-Out Middle, and a Pragmatic and Polite Right among those in between. (Find the quiz here to see where you land!)

Plus, Henry darts about the map as the race to control the Senate gets even more interesting: To Maine, where Democrats seem settled on Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner; to South Carolina, where the president has nudged Darline Graham Nordone — sister of the late Lindsey Graham — to run; and then on to the American West, where Democrats are hoping to slip like-minded Independents past decidedly Republican-leaning voters.  

And we take a look at a few ads from the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest to compare how Progressive candidate Francesca Hong attempts to define herself ahead of the August 11th primary against spots from a Republican PAC that hopes their party faces her in the fall.  

Partisan trends being what they are, it's increasingly rare to see an election actually decided in November. The parties matter more, the candidates a bit less. But that divide doesn't seem so big in the Grand Canyon State, and Arizonans like a maverick. Chuck Warren of Breaking Battlegrounds joins Henry to discuss the flamboyant characters vying for congressional districts 1, 5, and 6, along with the story behind Andy Biggs' surprisingly easy path to a general against incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs.

Plus, Henry breaks down the rules of the exceedingly interesting Senate elections coming up in Maine and South Carolina following the dropout of Graham Platner and the passing of Lindsey Graham. And the Democratic establishment strikes back with a couple of ads targeting progressive disrupters. 

The Democratic Socialists of America have laid their plans, are on the march, and have been making steady gains, but established orders aren't toppled in a day... and there's trouble in paradise. Henry rants his way through the fall of Graham Platner, Abdul El-Sayed's edge in his race for Michigan's Senate seat, and Melat Kiros' victory in Colorado's 1st district.

Plus, we're back with an ad of the week as Wesley Bell defends his seat in Missouri in a rematch against Squad member Cori Bush.

America's birthday is almost here, and the semiquincentennial milestone imbues the annual celebration with special significance. For this reason, Henry sits down with the American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman to discuss her latest report, America at 250: Surveying Change and Continuity on Civic Values, a grand survey comparing American sentiments today with those of respondents nearly 30 years ago. Tune in to hear the surprising—and mostly reassuring!—findings on what's changed and what's stayed the same when Americans reflect on what it means to be American.

Americans all rightly make a great deal about our democracy. But the partisan element sets in quickly, and the incessant debate extends even beyond the candidates and initiatives on the ballot. Stephen Richer (a fellow of the Cato Institute and Harvard Kennedy School and former Maricopa County recorder) joins Henry to discuss past and contemporary efforts to address fundamental concerns about voting access and election integrity. 

Plus, we take two bites out of the Big Apple for this week's rant and ad of the week. Mayor Mamdani and his team of Democratic Socialists of America members won big on Tuesday, and Henry frames this wave in a historical context at the top and ends with a close look at how this group applied digital media savvy to get its shot at influencing the future.

Start spreading the news: New Yorkers are hitting the polls next week, and the election is gonna be something wild. Cook Political's Erin Covey is our tour de force guide through the many candidates vying to represent the city's distinct locales, including a "Commie Corridor," which bumps up against the Wall Street district, which lies just south of the newlywed Upper East/Upper West Side "You've Got Mail District." Let's just say these neighbors have varied opinions on AI, Israel, the proper minimum wage and paid family leave. Our duo also hops over the Hudson to look into a couple races of interest to NY Republicans before making a quick trip to Maryland 5, where a 24-way race has brewed up to replace retiring Steny Hoyer. 

Plus, Henry breaks down this week's results from Georgia and Alabama, and considers how Trump's current approval numbers may affect once-safe GOP Senate seats.

We've got Senate runoffs in the Deep South next week, and that means we already know what's in the bag... right? Wrong! Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor, returns to update us on a couple of surprisingly close Republican primaries. Tune in to hear about an Alabama outsider's formidable challenge to the Trump-endorsed candidate and the Republicans hoping to unseat a relatively strong John Ossoff in the increasingly purple Peach State. The duo also looks ahead to the next big Democratic Senate primary in Michigan.

Plus, Henry jets around the far corners of the country for a rant on Graham Platner's win in Maine, Spencer Pratt's loss in Los Angeles, and how ranked-choice voting might leave Congressional control uncertain if races in Alaska and Maine remain tight. And we take a look at a trio of uber-expensive ads for a California gubernatorial candidate you may not have even heard about.