Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. Henry sits down with Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President of the survey research firm SSRS and co-director of The Voter Poll. Joe's here to explain how his team goes about sampling actual ballot-casters so the American people can get quicker (yet still accurate) calls on election night. 

Plus, keeping predictive power in mind, Henry reverse-engineers the generic ballot from the past three midterm elections to gauge who will win the House tug-of-war in November. And we take in Susan Collins' clever pitch to her Red Sox country voters about Yankee Chuck Schumer's attempts to influence the contest in Maine.



Catch Henry's latest PostOpinions piece to see his midterm model. While you're there, subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.

The polling business has undergone profound changes since the start of the 21st century, especially in its response to new technology and the altered habits of potential respondents. We often hear from representatives of the media or university end of polling, but today Henry sits down with a guest who has skin in the game: professional political pollster Jon Lerner. The two discuss how these new entrants have changed the playing field, address the live question about the relative value of modeling, and consider alternative methods for addressing demographically uneven response rates. 

Plus, Republican candidates are publicly breaking with Trump in political advertisements and Henry rants about why they're doing so and what this portends. And speaking of ads, we've got a trio sampler of effective approaches to kick off general election season: one positive, one negative, and one that's just plain funny.

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After last week's tour of competitive House races, it's time to look to the Senate battlegrounds. Though nobody can predict the future, our friend Kyle Kondik brings his Sabato's Crystal Ball to assess this cycle's key toss-ups, leans, and tight holds—the races that will decide who controls the upper chamber. He and Henry dart about the map to consider the latest on the campaigns in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska. 

Plus, since we live in an era of models rather than polls, Henry advises on how to look under the hood for a firm's methodology before cranking up to take the results to the bank. 

Be sure to sign up for Henry’s "Margin of Victory" newsletter for his election insights every Wednesday!

The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin dive deep into the circumstances that might yield a good election return for either party in a midterm that's more of a toss-up than polls might suggest. 

Henry has tonight's RNC midterm convention in mind as he rants through the kind of messaging Republican candidates should adopt for this unfavorable cycle. Plus, he thinks through one of the great puzzles of the current system: If the parties are increasingly doing the heavy lifting on ballots, what should we make of the record sums being spent on candidates?

With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pushed New Hampshire back in the Democratic Party's queue. 

Plus, Henry looks ahead to the midterms, finds a map made relatively favorable to Republicans, and warns Democrats aiming to take the House about the unique challenge they face. And he homes in on an ad in the New Hampshire 01 primary where Maura Sullivan accuses opponent Stefany Shaheen of nepotism. 

Be sure to sign up for Henry’s weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!

With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble those from four years back, and how he braces for the unpredictable before heading into live coverage as ballots pour in.

Plus, Henry offers messaging advice for Republican strategists—identifying the target audience and the pitch for staying the course—ahead of the Republican midterm convention coming up on September 9th. He also finds a high vantage point in an Amy Acton ad that shows how the Ohio gubernatorial race could become competitive again. 

South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey. 

For a survey of this sudden showdown in the Swamp State, Henry is joined by Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. They consider how difficult it may be to call the race, as even in MAGA country, Trump may find his movement prone to rebelliousness. 

Plus, Henry dives into the Florida primary results, parses this cycle's polling errors, and looks at a Ralph Norman ad asking South Carolinians whether his opponent has anything more than a name.

Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. 

Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss for statewide office in Wisconsin, and considers what it means for the DSA. And he takes a look at an effective use of AI-generated advertising in Catalina Lauf's run for Byron Donald's Florida House seat. 

Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: Forward. And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert. 

Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong benefited from opponents' imploded campaigns, moving from fourth (at best) to the top of the field. He and Henry look to the coming general in Wisconsin 3, where Rebecca Cooke is expected to challenge Republican Derrick Van Orden in a rematch. They also consider how the Democrats' leftward lunge may give Tom Tiffany a better shot than previously thought, given his rural House district (Wisconsin 7) and Trump's low approval. 

Plus, Henry heads to Michigan and beyond to explain that the DSA's moment has come—before imparting some advice to the ambitious within its ranks who might seek the presidency. And, finally, we inspect another ad from Darline Graham, who seems ready to state some positions.  

Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

A primary-palooza is days away, with contests set for August 4th in Kansas, Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. But all eyes are on Michigan, a bellwether state with ambitious representatives tugging hard at it left, right, and center. Henry's here to shepherd us through the state's long list of battleground congressional districts. And, of course, he closely inspects the turnout trends and insider behaviors that portend a good day for Abdul El-Sayed and the DSA — but what will all this mean for the general? Tune in to find out!

Plus, Henry glances at a trio of ads featuring candidates Darline Graham (South Carolina), Rebecca Cooke (Wisconsin), and Troy Jackson (Maine).