Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

By Ricochet

Each week Henry Olsen, columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, will talk about the presidential and congressional races with leading political journalists and analysts, peo... more

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The podcast currently has 172 episodes available.

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Number 1: Rate Changes and Coordinated Expenditures
The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin dive deep into the circumstances that might yield a good election return for either party in a midterm that's more of a toss-up than polls might suggest. Henry has tonight's RNC midterm convention in mind as he rants through the kind of messaging Republican candidates should adopt for this unfavorable cycle. Plus, he thinks through one of the great puzzles of the current system: If the parties are increasingly doing the heavy lifting on ballots, what should we make of the record sums being spent on candidates?
September 10, 202650min
Number 2: Dissuadable Disapprovers?
With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble those from four years back, and how he braces for the unpredictable before heading into live coverage as ballots pour in.Plus, Henry offers messaging advice for Republican strategists—identifying the target audience and the pitch for staying the course—ahead of the Republican midterm convention coming up on September 9th. He also finds a high vantage point in an Amy Acton ad that shows how the Ohio gubernatorial race could become competitive again.
August 27, 202651min
Number 3: Take Nothing For Granite
With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pushed New Hampshire back in the Democratic Party's queue. Plus, Henry looks ahead to the midterms, finds a map made relatively favorable to Republicans, and warns Democrats aiming to take the House about the unique challenge they face. And he homes in on an ad in the New Hampshire 01 primary where Maura Sullivan accuses opponent Stefany Shaheen of nepotism. Be sure to sign up for Henry’s weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!
September 03, 20261h 3min
Number 4: A MAGA Contest, Southern Cackalacky-Style
South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey. For a survey of this sudden showdown in the Swamp State, Henry is joined by Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. They consider how difficult it may be to call the race, as even in MAGA country, Trump may find his movement prone to rebelliousness. Plus, Henry dives into the Florida primary results, parses this cycle's polling errors, and looks at a Ralph Norman ad asking South Carolinians whether his opponent has anything more than a name.
August 20, 202652min
Number 5: Heat Lightning Over the Sunshine State
Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss for statewide office in Wisconsin, and considers what it means for the DSA. And he takes a look at an effective use of AI-generated advertising in Catalina Lauf's run for Byron Donald's Florida House seat. Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!
August 13, 202659min