Have you guys heard about this Epstein stuff? Shit's pretty crazy.

Note: I'm not going to provide a summary of the situation or talk about evidence; this piece is for people that already know these things. I'm going to avoid specifics about what Epstein and co did, and instead will use vague terms like "Epstein stuff". This is a short post about how I've updated my world model.

Particular things that I find very surprising: that so many people basically knew what was going on and didn't say anything; that so many people were involved themselves in incriminating heinous acts; that the Epstein stuff and associated conspiracy to hide/protect it spanned not only lots of people but lots of time (~20 years!); that they got away with it for so long.

Conspiracy

Scott Alexander writes:

The Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories goes: “You can’t run a big organization in secret without any outsiders noticing or any insiders blowing the whistle."

He offers a number of heuristics regarding the plausibility of conspiracy theories, including:

A. You generally can’t keep the existence of a large organization that engages in clandestine activities secret.

Before I learned about this Epstein stuff, I thought [...]

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Outline:

(00:58) Conspiracy

(01:39) Things I think are much more prevalent/likely than I did before

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