Eurizon SLJ Capital

US midterm elections, the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision and global fiscal pressures dominate the week ahead. Host Matt Jones, Head of Distribution at Eurizon SLJ Capital, is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines to discuss the outlook for professional investors.

In the UK, Neil assesses the budget’s limited demand impact and unresolved questions over debt and spending. With OBR forecasts missing the recent energy price surge, he expects a 25 basis point Bank of England hike, while retaining a more dovish medium-term economic outlook.

Globally, fiscal concerns in Brazil and France highlight market sensitivity to government finances. Attention turns to central bank decisions, including the RBA, Riksbank and Norges Bank, alongside global PMIs, Eurozone inflation and Bank of Japan minutes.

In the US, the midterms bring political and geopolitical uncertainty, while the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold leaves questions over its policy response. ISM surveys, trade figures and non-farm payrolls accompany earnings from Apple and Qualcomm, with AI monetisation and semiconductor supply chains under scrutiny.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:29 UK Budget Fallout
02:11 Bank of England Decision Preview
02:47 Global Fiscal Risks
03:24 Global Central Bank Decisions
05:06 US Midterms and Federal Reserve Outlook
06:18 US Data and Corporate Earnings
07:08 Weekend Sport
07:50 Long and Short of the Weekend
08:22 Closing Disclosures

Marketing communication. For professional investors only.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

The UK budget, Federal Reserve decision and big tech earnings headline the week ahead for global markets. Host Matt Jones, Head of Distribution at Eurizon SLJ Capital, is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines for a global macro outlook for professional investors.

In the UK, higher inflation and weak consumer data complicate the Bank of England outlook. A 25-basis-point hike is expected on 5 November, though fragile household demand and limited benefits from AI investment could make further increases harder to justify. The budget brings government borrowing costs, fiscal policy and the impact on businesses and households into focus.

Globally, Brazil’s election and widening French bond spreads highlight fiscal concerns. Decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of New Zealand sit alongside key releases, including Australian inflation and Eurozone GDP.

In the US, GDP, PCE inflation and consumer confidence accompany the Federal Reserve meeting. Google and Microsoft headline the busiest week of the earnings season, amid growing scrutiny of AI funding and credit conditions.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:29 UK Data and Bank of England Outlook
02:18 UK Budget and Fiscal Risks
02:49 Brazil’s Election and European Bond Markets
03:49 Central Bank Decisions and Global Data
04:41 US GDP, Federal Reserve and Big Tech Earnings
06:20 Weekend Sport
07:02 Long Sleep, Short Vitamin D
07:24 Closing Remarks and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Rising bond yields are raising questions about global growth and corporate funding conditions. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors, with UK inflation, China’s economic data and US earnings in focus.

UK: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget

Employment, CPI, public finances and retail sales arrive ahead of the 28 October Budget and 5 November Bank of England meeting. With a November rate rise largely priced, Neil considers second-round inflation risks, the potential duration of the tightening cycle and how fiscal policy could weigh on growth into 2027.

Global markets: China GDP and the impact of higher yields

China’s Q3 GDP and September activity data provide an update on the economic backdrop. October’s global flash PMIs will be watched for signs that higher yields are affecting activity and widening differences between economies. German ZEW and Eurozone consumer confidence also feature, alongside Neil’s expectation of a December European Central Bank rate rise.

US: Earnings, AI financing and credit pressures

A busy earnings week brings results from Netflix, AT&T, IBM, Meta and Tesla. The discussion examines funding pressures in more leveraged parts of the AI sector and the interaction between bond yields, credit and risk assets. US-Iran and wider regional developments remain on the watchlist.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:29 UK Data and Budget Watch
02:08 Global Growth and Central Banks
03:50 US Earnings and Credit
05:06 Weekend Sport and Diwali
05:52 Long and Short Picks
06:23 Wrap-Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Oil, Inflation and the Global Growth Outlook

Higher oil prices, rising bond yields and fiscal pressures are complicating the global growth outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the implications for inflation, interest rates and financial markets, alongside the key releases ahead for professional investors.

In the UK, August GDP will be scrutinised for signs of slowing growth amid energy headwinds and weaker housing indicators. Rising gilt yields add pressure ahead of the 28 October budget, with Bank of England commentary providing further insight into the policy outlook.

In Europe, France’s budget stalemate and widening credit spreads raise concerns about spillovers into bonds, equities and the euro. European Central Bank commentary, RBA minutes and Chinese inflation data are in focus, alongside Brazil’s market response to its presidential election.

In the US, September CPI and retail sales will help markets assess inflation pressures, consumer demand and the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Third-quarter earnings season begins, while Fed Governor Waller’s commentary and developments involving Iran remain important influences on sentiment.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:29 UK GDP, Fiscal Pressures and the Bank of England
02:18 Global Yields, French Fiscal Risks and the ECB
04:41 US Inflation, the Federal Reserve and Earnings
06:19 Weekend Sport
07:19 Closing Remarks and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Rising bond yields and widening European credit spreads are sharpening the focus on fiscal pressures and interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the implications for global markets and the key economic releases and central bank signals to watch in the week ahead.

In the UK, stronger Q2 GDP sits alongside persistent energy price pressures and elevated government borrowing costs. With 30-year gilt yields reaching 6.07%, attention turns to potential contagion from European bond markets and the growth, inflation and fiscal challenges facing the 28 October budget.

In Europe, French budget proposals have unsettled credit markets, with Italian spreads also widening. Could these pressures temper the European Central Bank’s hawkish tone? September ECB minutes, policy speeches and services PMIs will provide further context.

The global calendar also brings Bank of Japan commentary, expectations for a December rate rise, Brazil’s election and an anticipated Reserve Bank of India hike.

In the US, payrolls, ISM services and trade data will help assess the growth outlook, including how AI investment feeds through to imports. Federal Reserve meeting minutes will inform the interest rate debate, while the approaching Q3 earnings season will offer fresh evidence on earnings growth and higher funding costs.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:24 UK growth, inflation and gilt yields
02:14 European credit pressures and the ECB
03:11 Global central banks and Brazil’s election
03:54 US payrolls and the Fed outlook
05:26 Weekend sport
06:11 The long and short
06:42 Closing and disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Rising oil prices and bond yields are bringing the balance between inflation and growth into sharper focus. In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the implications for global markets and the economic calendar ahead.

In the UK, higher energy costs and gilt yields are adding pressure ahead of the 28 October Budget. The discussion considers the economy’s underlying fragility and the outlook for interest rates, with Bank of England commentary, consumer credit and the final second-quarter GDP release in focus. 

Global central banks continue to follow differing policy paths. Following decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank, attention turns to an expected 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of Australia hike and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions. Eurozone inflation and European Central Bank commentary will help frame expectations for the timing of further rate increases. 

In the US, non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation headline the data calendar, with expectations for slower job growth and unchanged inflation readings. Consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and ISM manufacturing provide further context, alongside Federal Reserve commentary and geopolitical developments. 

For professional investors only. Information, data and views are as at the time of recording. 

Chapters

00:00 Introduction
00:33 UK: Oil Prices and Rising Gilt Yields
01:43 UK Data and the October Budget
02:32 Global Central Banks and Inflation
04:44 US Payrolls, PCE Inflation and the Federal Reserve
06:44 Weekend Sport: Football, Cricket and Formula 1
07:33 The Long & Short Picks
07:55 Wrap-up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Oil prices, inflation risks and a more hawkish global policy backdrop are reshaping the outlook for central banks and financial conditions.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75%, alongside changes to quantitative tightening and three MPC votes for an immediate 25bp hike. With Governor Bailey signalling that persistent oil prices or Middle East tensions could influence the November outlook, they assess why market pricing for around 100bp of UK tightening may be difficult to reconcile with a still-fragile economy and pressure on public finances.

The discussion then turns to the broader global monetary policy picture. Following recent 25bp rate increases from the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, attention shifts to the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank, alongside September flash PMIs and the growing impact of the energy shock on global financial conditions.

In the US, the Fed’s latest hike and more hawkish messaging point to a reduced tolerance for above-target inflation. Despite that shift, Neil continues to see underlying disinflation and a lower peak in US interest rates than markets currently price, absent a further significant energy shock.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introduction
00:27 Bank of England: rates on hold
01:47 UK economy and public finances
02:39 Global central banks
04:01 Oil shock and September PMIs
05:03 Federal Reserve hike and policy outlook
06:04 US macro watchlist
06:31 Weekend sports roundup
07:22 Long and Short picks
07:42 Wrap-up and disclosures

For professional investors only.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Energy prices are reshaping the global inflation and interest-rate outlook, with oil and natural gas feeding through to bond markets and central-bank expectations.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week ahead, beginning in the UK, where July GDP surprised to the upside. Neil remains cautious about extrapolating the rebound, however, as renewed rises in oil and, importantly for Europe, natural gas tighten financial conditions and contribute to higher gilt yields. Attention turns to UK employment, inflation and retail sales, alongside a Bank of England meeting that is expected to leave rates unchanged, with November increasingly in focus.

The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with Christine Lagarde highlighting downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. Markets are now pricing further tightening, while next week also brings a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting, China data, inflation releases from India and Poland, and a Brazilian policy decision.

In the US, renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices have contributed to a sharp rise in Treasury yields and wider pressure across global bond markets. The US inflation print will be critical for the Federal Reserve outlook, while still-low volatility across equities, credit and FX leaves Neil focused on the potential value of long-volatility strategies.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:27 UK growth and Bank of England outlook
02:38 ECB takeaways and the global policy outlook
04:37 US inflation, the Fed and bond-market risks
06:41 Weekend sports roundup
07:30 Closing and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone.

In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, with the economy still appearing too weak to support further rate hikes.

They also look at the outlook for the yen and Bank of Japan policy, rising inflation risks in Australia, and a busy global calendar of inflation data and central bank meetings.

In the US, payrolls, inflation and debt sustainability remain central to the outlook. With markets reassessing the path for Federal Reserve policy, next week’s CPI release could prove important for rate expectations, financial conditions and the broader growth outlook.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:29 Bond sell-off and ECB outlook
02:24 UK fiscal risks and Bank of England watch
03:35 Japan, Australia and global data
04:24 US growth, inflation and Fed path
06:34 Weekend sports watchlist
07:35 Long and short picks
08:09 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fiscal outlook is less certain as Prime Minister Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions. Eurizon SLJ Capital remains cautious on the UK macro outlook into September and beyond.

Globally, attention turns to Australian inflation projections, an expected 25-basis-point RBNZ rate increase, Japanese retail sales and industrial production, and China’s August PMI data. In the Eurozone, August flash inflation arrives ahead of the ECB’s September meeting, while natural gas prices could prove increasingly important for the monetary policy path beyond September.

In the US, the focus shifts decisively back to the economic data following the latest policy update from Fed Chair Warsh. JOLTS, ISM manufacturing and services, ADP payrolls, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and the trade balance all lead into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the labour market a key input into the Fed reaction function and the US yield curve.

Neil also looks ahead to the long bank holiday weekend, including rugby, cricket, Premier League football, Notting Hill Carnival and Reading Festival.

Chapters

00:00 Show intro
00:29 September watchlist: UK
00:42 UK data and monetary policy
01:19 UK politics and fiscal uncertainty
01:58 Global data roundup
02:53 Eurozone inflation and the ECB
03:45 US payrolls week
04:52 US data calendar
05:36 Long weekend sport
06:33 Festival banter and wrap-up
07:15 Closing and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.