Eurizon SLJ Capital

This week marks the fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead.

In this milestone episode, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss a busy week for global macro markets, with central banks, inflation, oil prices, and political uncertainty all in focus.

Neil looks at the UK after a volatile week for politics and data, assessing what recent inflation, labour market, and retail sales figures could mean for the Bank of England. He then turns to a packed global central bank calendar, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, ECB, and Fed, where markets will be watching closely for signals on the balance between inflation risks and growth concerns.

The discussion also covers the US macro outlook, the final stages of Jerome Powell’s tenure at the Fed, key data releases, major technology earnings, and the wider implications of the oil shock for the global economy.

Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to the weekend, including the London Marathon, the Women’s Six Nations, the Premier League relegation battle, and this week’s long and short.

Key topics covered

•  The fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead
•  UK inflation, retail sales, unemployment, and political volatility 
•  What to expect from the Bank of England 
•  Global central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Fed 
•  The impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth 
•  US consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and ISM manufacturing 
•  Major technology earnings from Google, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Apple 
•  The London Marathon, Women’s Six Nations, and Premier League football

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macro themes shaping markets in the days ahead.

They begin with the UK, where weaker growth forecasts, fiscal pressure, and stagflation concerns continue to weigh on the outlook. From there, the conversation turns to Europe, where the debate centres on how policymakers should respond to the energy shock and what that could mean for ECB rate expectations.

Neil also looks across the global landscape, highlighting upcoming PMI data, German sentiment surveys, and central bank decisions from several major emerging markets. In the US, attention shifts to retail sales, earnings season, and the confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, which could prove important for market expectations around rates, risk assets, and the dollar.

The episode closes, as ever, with a lighter look at the sporting weekend ahead.

In this episode:

•  Why the UK outlook remains under pressure 
•  What the energy shock means for Europe and ECB pricing 
•  The global importance of flash PMIs and central bank decisions 
•  Why next week’s US policy focus may matter more than the data 
•  Neil’s long and short for the weekend ahead 

Recorded for professional investors. Views were accurate at the time of recording.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 UK Outlook BoE
02:36 Global Central Banks
04:32 Week Ahead Data
05:23 US After FOMC
07:28 Weekend Sports Talk
08:15 Long And Short Picks
08:30 Wrap Up And Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a complex global macro backdrop dominated by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil, inflation expectations, yields, equities, and growth, with market focus shifting to a heavy week of central bank meetings. In the UK, weak sales, house prices, and a softer January GDP print reinforce growth concerns; despite markets repricing toward possible Bank of England hikes, Staines sees a high bar given weakening growth and reduced fiscal space, though statement language will be closely parsed. Elsewhere, the RBA is expected to bring forward a 25bp hike, while the Bank of Canada, SNB, Riksbank, and ECB are broadly expected to hold rates amid differing inflation and growth dynamics. The Fed is seen as most consequential, with unchanged rates expected but close attention on updated projections and dots amid a weaker revised Q4 GDP and ongoing geopolitical risks.

00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:27 UK Outlook and BoE Watch
02:24 Global Central Bank Roundup
05:19 Fed Focus and US Data
07:19 Weekend Watchlist Sports
08:32 Long and Short Picks
08:52 Wrap Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead against major uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting it is likely to dominate sentiment and positioning while they limit forecasts to the macroeconomy. In the UK, the Spring Statement brought no policy change but updated OBR projections: 2026 growth cut to 1.1% (from 1.4%), peak unemployment lifted to 5.3% (from 4.9%), and inflation lowered to 2.3%. The fiscal outlook also improved via higher projected revenues and lower debt funding costs due to a lower yield curve, though they remain skeptical given January tax effects and the sensitivity of public finances to moves in rates following developments around Iran. January UK GDP is the key domestic release. Globally, with the BoE and ECB entering blackout periods ahead of meetings on the 19th (and the FOMC ahead of the 18th), focus includes Eurozone investor confidence and industrial production, Isabel Schnabel’s remarks, China’s CPI/PPI amid limited domestic-demand messaging from Two Sessions, and inflation releases across several EMs alongside Hungary minutes and a Turkey rate decision. In the US, February CPI, the trade balance, PCE, and JOLTS are key, with oil’s impact on inflation and expectations central.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 Middle East Backdrop
01:12 UK Spring Statement
02:27 UK GDP Watch
02:50 Global Data Radar
03:14 Europe And Energy
03:41 China Inflation Focus
04:48 US CPI And Oil
06:41 Weekend Sports Picks
07:29 Long And Short Signoff
07:57 Closing Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop where markets appear calm at the headline level but show significant divergence underneath, including record-high equity dispersion, private credit uncertainty despite tight spreads, and varied European inflation and growth dynamics alongside flat ECB rate expectations. They preview a busier week of data: Australia’s inflation gauge, GDP and trade (watched for expectations of one more RBA hike); Europe’s February CPI, unemployment, retail sales, and final manufacturing and services PMIs; and China’s “Two Sessions,” including growth targets and the 15th five-year plan. They also flag CPI releases across multiple emerging markets. In the US, focus is on ISM manufacturing and services, the Beige Book, ADP, and Friday payrolls, where a surprise could have an outsized market impact.

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:27 Calm Markets Hidden Divergence
02:14 Key Global Data Week Ahead
03:48 US Data and Payrolls Focus
05:25 Weekend Watch Sports Picks
06:14 Long and Short Takeaways
06:33 Closing and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

 Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss macro themes for the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent data show unemployment at a new cycle high of 5.2% (above COVID highs), conflicting private vs public pay trends, and CPI signals of underlying weakness as administered prices drop out of annual comparisons; inflation is expected to return to target by mid-year, and UK 10-year yields are ~25 bps lower over two weeks. Next week’s UK watchpoints include consumer confidence and comments from MPC members at both dovish and hawkish ends, as markets debate whether the next rate cut is in March or April; Eurizon SLJ expects sooner and faster cuts than the MPC/market. In Australia, RBA minutes were non-committal but hawkish amid wages and high unit labour costs; January CPI next week will be key for assessing hike urgency. Other global items include Germany’s February CPI and retail sales, Japan’s retail sales and industrial production plus fiscal-plan commentary, multiple employment reports (Poland, Mexico, Turkey, Hungary, Colombia), a South Korean central bank rate decision, and South Africa’s budget. In the US, FOMC minutes suggest a shift away from labour-market risks back toward inflation risks as growth stays robust; geopolitical risks (including the Iran standoff) and higher oil prices, AI capex monetisation concerns, software brokerage disruption, private credit contagion worries, and NVIDIA earnings are highlighted amid a light data calendar, with volatility still viewed as cheap. 

00:00 Welcome & What to Watch in the Week Ahead
00:27 UK Macro Update: Jobs, Inflation, Yields & BoE Cut Timing
02:22 Australia in Focus: RBA Minutes, Wages & Next Week’s CPI
03:18 Global Roundup: Europe, Japan, EM Data & Key Central Bank Events
04:01 US Outlook: FOMC Tone Shift, Geopolitics, AI/Earnings & Volatility
05:35 Weekend Sports Preview: Football, Curling, Cricket & Six Nations
07:00 Closing Thanks & Important Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead (Eurizon SLJ Capital), Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to break down the macro themes set to matter most for professional investors.

The UK remains front and centre, with the employment report, January CPI and retail sales providing key inputs for Bank of England expectations. The conversation then shifts globally, focusing on Australia’s policy outlook via RBA minutes and labour market data, and New Zealand’s rate decision and guidance. In the US, attention turns to the trade balance and Q4 GDP, alongside signs markets may be drifting toward a higher-volatility regime amid AI-related cross-currents.

The episode closes with a quick look at the weekend sporting calendar and Neil’s long/short for the weekend.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and welcome
00:27 UK outlook: jobs, CPI and retail sales
02:20 Global: Australia, New Zealand, Europe and EM
04:06 US: trade balance, Q4 GDP and volatility
06:29 Weekend sports highlights
07:51 Conclusion and sign-off

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones (Eurizon SLJ Capital) is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines to map the week ahead across rates, data, and event risk. They unpack the Bank of England’s latest signals, the key UK releases to watch, ECB messaging and the role of FX, and a global run of inflation prints including China. In the US, attention turns to the rescheduled non-farm payrolls and CPI, with potential implications for the Fed’s reaction function. They finish with a quick weekend sports preview.

In this episode

• UK: Bank of England signals and what matters next in UK data (Q4 GDP, industrial production, trade)
• Europe: ECB messaging, FX focus, and Eurozone GDP
• Global: China CPI/PPI and inflation readings across key emerging markets
• US: delayed non-farm payrolls and CPI, and what they could mean for policy expectations
• Weekend watch: football, F1 testing, T20 World Cup, and Six Nations rugby

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:27 Bank of England’s Recent Developments
02:35 Global Economic Highlights
04:49 US Economic Updates
06:30 Weekend Sports Preview
07:43 Conclusion and Sign-off

About the show
The Long and Short of the Week Ahead is a weekly macro podcast from Eurizon SLJ Capital, designed for professional investors.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines run through the key macro themes for the days ahead, from Bank of England projections and UK policy signals to global central bank watchpoints, China PMI data, and a US calendar that culminates in non-farm payrolls.

What we cover

• UK policy week: the Bank of England meeting, updated projections, and the inflation path
• Market pricing versus expectations for the UK rate-cut trajectory
• Global central banks in focus, including the Reserve Bank of Australia and European Central Bank
• China’s PMI data as an early read on activity and sentiment into 2026
• A data-heavy US week: ISM, JOLTS, ADP, ISM Services, and non-farm payrolls
• Key global inflation prints and what they imply for central bank reaction functions across DM and EM
• A quick weekend sports preview to close

Chapters / timestamps
00:00 Introduction and welcome
00:27 Focus on the Bank of England
02:21 Global macro calendar highlights
04:18 US economic outlook
06:37 Weekend sports preview
07:44 Conclusion and sign-off

About the show
The Long and Short of the Week Ahead is a podcast from Eurizon SLJ Capital examining the macro themes shaping markets.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.