Eurizon SLJ Capital

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop shaped by UK fiscal uncertainty, renewed inflation concerns, rising long-end bond yields and the policy signals investors will be watching at Jackson Hole.

In the UK, a higher inflation print was driven by energy price-cap changes, while services and labour cost growth continued to ease. Weak retail sales, a disappointing fiscal print and concerns around the jobs market remain consistent with a cautious view of the UK economy and have dovish implications for the Bank of England. Attention now turns to the Governor’s comments in Wyoming and, further ahead, the 28 October Budget under the new Prime Minister.

Globally, renewed US-Iran tensions have brought energy prices, particularly European gas, back into focus alongside inflation concerns. Fiscal uncertainty in France and heavier government and hyperscaler debt issuance have also contributed to higher yields at the long end of global curves. Next week brings RBA minutes, German Ifo, a broad range of EM inflation and central bank events, and the Jackson Hole gathering.

In the US, Fed minutes highlighted the committee’s sensitivity to inflation, while Treasury measures aimed at supporting the long end of the bond market are viewed as negative for the dollar. Focus now shifts to Jackson Hole and the Fed reaction function, with NVIDIA earnings providing another important market event.

Chapters

00:00 Show Intro
00:33 UK Outlook
02:13 Global Macro Watchlist
03:52 US Rates and Policy
05:58 Weekend Sports Radar
06:42 Long and Short Picks
06:59 Wrap Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings.

As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment.

Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s flash PMIs. The ECB meeting takes centre stage, although President Lagarde is expected to offer limited forward guidance.

In the US, a light data calendar and the Fed blackout period shift attention towards Iran-related geopolitics, energy prices and Q2 earnings. Results from Google, Texas Instruments, Tesla and AT&T will intensify the debate around AI investment, semiconductor demand, earnings growth and valuations.

00:00 Show introduction
00:29 UK politics and economic data
02:40 ECB meeting and the global calendar
04:29 US geopolitics and Q2 earnings
05:51 Weekend sports watchlist
06:56 Long and short picks
07:20 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macroeconomic and market themes facing professional investors in the week ahead.

In the UK, attention turns to the Parliamentary Labour Party’s leadership nomination deadline and the policy direction of the next administration. Neil considers the commitment to the existing fiscal rules, the fragile backdrop for output, employment and productivity, and the latest GDP, trade and industrial production data. He also examines the prospect of a more dovish Bank of England during the second half of the year and the importance of maintaining credibility in the gilt market.

Across Europe, the discussion covers the court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to contest the next French presidential election, persistent deficit pressures and the requirement for greater defence spending. With the ECB entering its blackout period, markets will also assess the revised eurozone inflation figures and the potential path of interest rates.

Further afield, the focus shifts to China’s second-quarter GDP and June activity data, a potential 25-basis-point rate increase in South Korea, international trade releases and TSMC’s latest earnings.

In the US, geopolitical developments involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine remain important for energy prices and inflation. A major run of economic releases—including CPI, PPI, retail sales, housing and sentiment data—will help shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and the opening of the second-quarter earnings season will provide further direction for markets.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introduction
00:29 UK politics, economic data and the Bank of England
02:08 European deficits, China data and the global outlook
03:49 US geopolitics, inflation and Federal Reserve policy
05:54 The weekend sports radar
06:55 Neil’s long and short picks
07:12 Closing remarks and disclosures

This podcast is intended for professional investors only. Information, data and views were accurate at the time of recording.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Falling oil prices are beginning to reshape the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and global interest rates.

Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the macroeconomic themes likely to drive markets in the week ahead, including continued UK fiscal uncertainty, the increasingly dovish signals from major central banks and the implications of lower energy prices for rate expectations.

In the UK, they consider the political and fiscal backdrop, the apparent £15 billion budget shortfall and the commitment to existing fiscal rules that has so far helped keep gilt markets calm. They also examine Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments at Sintra, where falling energy prices, weakening activity, softer labour markets and a widening output gap supported a more dovish policy narrative.

The discussion then turns to the global economy, covering stabilising Chinese PMIs, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preference to pause and assess, a strong Japanese Tankan survey and a softer Eurozone inflation picture. Key data to watch include Australian inflation, Eurozone investor confidence and retail sales, Japanese cash earnings, Chinese CPI and PPI, and a busy schedule of emerging-market central bank meetings and inflation releases.

In the US, attention remains on payrolls and the emerging policy stance of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. His comments on AI-led supply-side expansion, stronger productivity, higher potential growth and declining inflation risks pointed towards a more dovish interpretation, despite his reluctance to provide explicit forward guidance.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introduction
00:29 UK politics, fiscal uncertainty and gilts
02:07 Global macroeconomic outlook
03:58 The Federal Reserve, Warsh and payrolls
06:01 Weekend watchlist
07:22 Long and short picks
07:46 Closing remarks and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to review a busy week for macro markets and look ahead to the key themes investors will be watching next.

In the UK, softer CPI and PPI, firmer employment data, and stronger retail sales added to a more constructive data backdrop. The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75 percent, with two hawkish dissents, but Eurizon SLJ’s view remains that rates are likely to stay on hold through the summer, with Bank Rate pricing lower towards the end of 2026. Neil also discusses why the Makerfield by-election could keep gilt markets focused on fiscal risks and financial conditions.

Globally, central banks remained active, with policy holds from several major central banks, rate hikes in the Philippines and Indonesia, and a rate cut in Brazil. The US-Iran MoU also helped lower oil prices and improve global risk sentiment, although uncertainty around the Middle East remains.

In the US, Neil reviews the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets interpreted the updated dots and PCE projections as hawkish, but Eurizon SLJ continues to expect eventual US rate cuts, particularly if oil supply risks continue to ease.

Next week’s calendar is lighter, with attention on Australian data, ECB inflation expectations, global flash PMIs, oil prices, US yields, and the dollar.

For professional investors only. Information, data, and views were accurate as at the time of recording.

Chapters

00:00 Show introduction
00:29 UK data and Bank of England
02:12 Politics and gilts
02:42 Global central banks
03:25 Middle East and oil
04:59 US Fed and outlook
07:18 Weekend watchlist
08:07 Long and short picks
08:30 Closing and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a busy macro week, led by the UK, where markets face a heavy run of data, a Bank of England decision, and a politically sensitive by-election.

In the UK, they discuss the backdrop after a negative April GDP print and a cabinet resignation, before looking ahead to the Makerfield by-election, May CPI, employment data, retail sales and the BoE meeting. Neil outlines why the bar for further rate hikes remains high, even if additional MPC dissent is possible, and why rates may still be biased lower by year-end.

They also assess a packed global central bank calendar, including the ECB’s 25bp hike to 2.25%, higher inflation forecasts, lower growth projections, the RBA’s likely hold, and the Bank of Japan’s potential move to 1% amid yen weakness. The discussion also covers China’s May data and policy decisions in Chile, Russia and Indonesia.

In the US, attention turns to retail sales, Iran-related headlines, the SpaceX IPO and a closely watched FOMC meeting, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, where changes to communication and projections could prove as important as the rate decision itself.

The episode closes with Neil’s weekend watchlist, including cricket, Formula 1, tennis and the FIFA World Cup, before the team reveal what they are long and short heading into the weekend.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and introductions
 00:29 UK week ahead
 01:51 Bank of England outlook
 02:44 Global central banks
 04:40 US Fed, data and markets
 06:22 Weekend watchlist
 07:06 Long and short picks
 07:31 Closing and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a holiday-shortened week shaped by geopolitics, energy risks, and shifting central bank reaction functions.

In the UK, weaker labour, inflation, retail sales, and PMI data have pushed growth fragility back into focus, while the RBA signals a pause and the ECB faces a more acute policy dilemma. Neil also looks ahead to key data from Europe, Japan, and the US, including core PCE, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence, with Strait of Hormuz risks still capable of driving oil and broader market volatility.

Chapters

00:00 Show Intro
 00:29 UK and RBA Outlook
 02:42 Global Data Watch
 04:31 US Markets and Geopolitics
 06:07 Long Weekend Sports Picks
 06:48 Long and Short Trades
 07:19 Wrap-Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This week’s episode focuses on rising UK political volatility, its impact on the UK yield curve, and the implications of high debt, elevated deficits, and limited fiscal headroom. Neil also looks at why stronger recent growth data may need to be treated with caution, as seasonality, higher oil prices, and rising yields create a more complicated backdrop for Q2 and Q3.

Globally, attention turns to whether the Trump-Xi meeting represents genuine progress or simply a stabilisation of relations. Neil discusses the market reaction to comments on the Strait of Hormuz, the potential implications for oil and yields, and the data points to watch across China, Australia, Japan, and emerging markets.

In the US, hotter CPI and PPI data, resilient activity, and growing market divergence keep the focus on the FOMC minutes, NVIDIA earnings, and developments around Iran.

Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to a packed sporting weekend, including football, golf, and the Women’s Six Nations Grand Slam decider.

Chapters

00:00 Show intro
 00:29 UK politics and data
 02:11 Global macro watchlist
 04:22 US inflation and the Fed
 06:09 Weekend sports picks
 06:49 Long and short calls
 07:23 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macroeconomic themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.

This week’s conversation covers UK political volatility following the local elections, the fiscal implications for gilt markets, and the outlook for UK assets as markets await Q1 GDP. Neil explains why Eurizon SLJ remains less optimistic than the market on UK growth, and why Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 may remain on the table.

The discussion also turns to the global macro backdrop, where a potential US-Iran off-ramp has helped reduce the energy risk premium and supported market sentiment. However, Neil highlights a widening pattern of regional and sectoral differentiation, with Korea, Taiwan and the US benefiting from the AI semiconductor and memory CapEx cycle, while Europe remains more exposed to the energy shock.

Looking ahead, key data and events include Eurozone sentiment indicators, Australia confidence data after the RBA’s latest rate hike, China CPI and PPI, the Trump-Xi meeting, and a major week of US data including payrolls, CPI, retail sales and Empire Manufacturing.

Neil also shares his long and short calls for the week: long the hope of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and short the hope of a near-term UK economic recovery.

For professional investors only.

Chapter markers

00:00 Welcome and introductions
 00:29 UK politics and gilt market implications
 01:17 The oil shock, UK GDP and Bank of England policy
 02:20 Global markets and the return of differentiation
 03:18 Eurozone, Australia and China watchlist
 04:33 US data, inflation and Fed focus
 06:18 Weekend sports watchlist
 07:15 Long and short calls
 07:40 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to preview the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This episode focuses on how persistent oil-price shocks could affect global monetary policy. Neil discusses the Bank of England’s warning that higher oil prices may imply a tighter policy path, the underlying weakness in the UK economy, and the added market uncertainty around local elections.

The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan, yen weakness and MOF intervention, the ECB’s rate-hike outlook, and the key US data to watch, including non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, ADP and ISM. With the Fed on hold, oil, inflation risks and demand trends remain central to the policy outlook.

To close, Matt and Neil look ahead to the UK bank holiday weekend, including football, the Snooker World Championship, Formula One’s return at the Miami Grand Prix, and Charles Leclerc’s reported golfing masterclass from Rickie Fowler before getting back to a different kind of driving.

Key topics: Bank of England, oil prices, ECB, Bank of Japan, Fed, US payrolls, yen intervention, ISM, AI CapEx, Formula One.

Chapters:
00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:29 UK week ahead
02:24 Global central banks
04:26 US payroll week
06:30 Bank holiday banter
07:31 Long and short picks
07:57 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.