The remanence of Cyclone Tauktae is playing cat and mouse with the aggressive teams. Madison Mountaineering hoped to get a jump on everyone and went to C3 only to find high winds. Four Sherpas from IMG made it to the South Col and also reported high winds. So the summit plans are off by a day with Madison now targeting May 22.

Teams are scattered from base camp to the South Col. Most appear to be targeting May 21 through the 24 for their summit. Sherpas stocked the Col over a week ago with supplies needed for the summit, however, some tents are reported to been blown away by the winds from Cyclone TC01A aka Tauktae.

As I posted yesterday due to warm temps this season, the Icefall Doc saying the route will be closed on Saturday, May 29. Complicating matters is another cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal that might, might, impact Everest around May 27/28/29. But given the Icefall closure, teams need to be off the upper mountain by then anyway. So that leaves us with low-wind days between May 23rd through May 26th.

As for crowds, well it depends. First on the number of summit days, second on how many members are really left, and third on the willingness of the guides to thread this tiny eye of the needle. Obviously, the more days of low winds, the less chance of crowds. Hopefully, we’ll see a lot this weekend to clear off the mountain for those leaving base camp now. As for how many members are left, it’s hard to get a reading on that given the cover-ups, lack of transparency, and gag orders from both the government and the operators. But it’s their choice as to how much to share, my job to ferret it out 🙂 At this point, It’s safe to say that there are fewer than we thought a month ago. Finally as for the eye of the needle, well this is why people hire guides – for their experience, connections, and judgment. I wish them all well.