Take 10 with Tim – March 29, 2024 – 9 am

1.Opening Day Game - Reflections


2.What team will be this year’s Baltimore Orioles – A team that appears to have turned the corner?


3.Give me three bold predictions for the 2024 Season
a.The Pirates make the playoffs, or at a minimum are relevant into late August.
b.Jackson Chourio hits 20 home runs and steals 40 bases and will be a first-round pick in 2025.
c.Shane Bieber wins the AL CY Young
d.Victor Scott takes over center field for Dylan Carlson and plays so well, that Carlson gets Wally Pipp. Oh yeah, Scott steals 50 bases and is this season Esteury Ruiz.
e.Ceddanne Rafaela finishes is a finalist in ROY voting.

4.Fantasy Award Predictions
a.A hitter that jumps up into the top echelon
b.A pitcher that jumps into the top echelon
c.A hitter and a pitcher that nobody is talking about today, that everyone will be at the end of the season

5.Annual Awards Predictions (Favorite and Dark Horse) – This will count as two questions
a.ROY
i.American League
ii.National League
b.CY Young
i.American League
ii.National League
c.MVP
i.American League
ii.National League

6.Post Season Prediction
a.American League Champions Series
b.National League Championship Series
c.World Series

7.What one hitter are you targeting for Sunday’s FAAB?

8.What one pitcher are you targeting for Sunday’s FAAB?

Segment 1 – The Weather

Segment 2 – Percota

Segment 3 – 12 things I’m anxious to see this season

1.How do Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery get along this season? – Discuss the whole Broas setup this offseason and their having big seasons could go a long way to re-establishing Boras as the elite of elite agencies. If not, there might be a sea change in agency representatives.
2.Did the off-season training for Shane Bieber, Casey Mize, and Ryan Weathers truly make them better pitchers, or is this just Spring Training noise?
3.Giancarlo Stanton looks physically great, but will that translate into success on the field? He is the active leader in career home runs at 402 and still has a solid shot at 500. However, he’s 34, so he needs to have a bounce back year in order to stay on that pace.
4.Does Wyatt Langford pull a Mike Trout. There is not only some physical resemblance, but both made the minor leagues look easy and moved through quickly. Trout was a high school kid, but Langford is an older college player.
5.Will the Orioles outsmart themselves with Jackson Holliday? Will he stay down longer than we all think? I’ll explain.
a.If he finishes in the Top 2 of ROY, then he automatically gets a year of service credited.
b.If he doesn’t start the year on the 40-man, the Orioles can not get a draft pick if he finishes in the Top 3 of ROY voting.
c.Bring up the signing of Tony Kemp.
6.Which Rookie not named Langford or Yamamoto will be Rookie of the Year?
7.Does Maikel Garcia add more power?
8.Will Estuery Ruiz be a true one-hit wonder?
a.Will he get full-time playing time?
b.There have been rumors of improved plate patience. Is that real?
c.Side note – Is Victor Scott II going to be Estuery Ruiz 2.0?
9.Is Jarred Kelenic any good?
10.Will Nolan Jones take the next step, or will that .401 BABIP cause such a correction that managers who drafted him in the fourth round, are not going to be happy?
11.How good will Yamamoto be?
12.Is Gerrit Cole going to be ok or will he join the TJ Club?
a.Will Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes return their 2022 form?
b.Will Juan Soto have that magical season where he hits 50 home runs and drives in 120 with 120 runs scored?

Fantasy Baseball Live – March 24, 2024 – 12:30 pm ET

Segment 1 – News and Notes

1.The Ohtani Saga – I’ve written about this and even recorded a podcast on it. Would you care to weigh in?
2.Any takeaways from the Korean Series?
3.Blake Snell finally found a home earlier this week and will join the Giants’ staff sometime in April. I’m torn. I love where he landed, but I just hate the setup for fantasy managers. A new team, and rushing to get ready just doesn’t feel good.
a.Your thoughts?
4.The Mets signed JD Martinez to a one-year, $12 million deal. Have the early shares of Mark Vientos expired worthless?
a.JD Martinez hit 33 home runs last season. How many does he hit this season?
i.Note: His exit velocity has been up and down over the past few years, but last year it was 93.4 MPH with a hard hit rate of 55% and a launch of 16.9 degrees.
5.Wyatt Langford starts the season in Texas, and Jackson Holliday will call Norfolk his home.
a.Are the Orioles just being cheap? When do we see him in Baltimore?
6.Max Meyer also makes the Opening Day roster. Any interest?
7.The Rangers signed Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $4.5 million contract. He’ll be starting at least early in the season. Any interest?

Segment 2 – Waiver Wire

Segment 3 – Closer Report

Close

Rich breaks down the Ohtani mess and what it could mean for baseball and all involved. He also discusses the latest on the coup occurring at the MLB Players Association. Finally, he reviews Yamamoto's first outing.

Outfield
1.Tommy Edman drops
2.Wyatt Langford has to make the Ranger's opening-day lineup, doesn’t he?
3.Parker Meadows looks like a legitimate ROY candidate.
4.Ceddanne Rafael has to break camp in Boston?
5.Lawrence Butler having a good Spring and right now has to move up from his current #140 ranking.
Starting Pitching
1.The following in my Top-30 in order are all hurt and likely to start the year on the IL.

Garrett Cole
Kevin Gausman
Kodai Senga
Eury Perez
Kyle Bradish
Justin Verlander
In addition both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery haven’t signed.

Other injuries
Gavin Williams #41
Braxton Garret #43
Lucas Giolito #61
Alek Manoah #104

•On a positive note Shane Bieber has looked great and needs to move up. Luis Severino has had a very good Spring as well.

•Casey Mize needs to move up. A.J. Puk at #130 looks poised to start the year in the rotation. The only healthy starter in Miami that was projected to be in the rotation is Jesus Luzardo???

•Paul Skenes looks to be ready. The Pirates aren’t.

I returned to my 2023 SP Rankings, and 18 of the top 50 are currently hurt. One is suspended, and two are unsigned. Only 3 of the Top-10 starters heading into 2023 will start the ’24 campaign.

Relief Pitching

The loss of Devin Williams has moved the Brewers pen from the #1 slot to a bottom five ranking.

Segment 1 - News and Notes
1.Gerrit Cole has been shut down for a month with nerve inflammation in his pitching elbow. He will pick up a ball at that point to test things.
a.This blows for people who drafted Cole in the first round.
b.Who gets the starts for the Yankees?
2.Eury Perez's elbow is also barking, and he’s meeting with a surgeon this week to get a diagnosis.
a.Another top-10 pitcher is gone. This is when I would like you to discuss your pitching narrative below. Only three of the top-10 starters in 2023 will begin the 2024 season, and 18 of 50 are hurt.
b.Who gets the starts in Perez’s absence?
3.Devin Williams will be out for three months. Yikes. He was a top 3 closer off the board. Who do you pick up? – Miguel, Uribe, Payamps
4.Taj Bradley will start the season on the IL with pectoral discomfort. Who gets his starts in Tampa?
5.On a positive pitching note. Scherzer and Verlander are getting closer to picking up a baseball.
6.There was a big trade this week with the Padres on the move again. They acquired Dylan Cease for Drew Thorpe (the second time he’s been traded this offseason), Jairo Irarate, Sammy Zavala, and Steven Wilson.
a.Do you like the move for fantasy managers who have drafted Cease?
b.Do you move up Thorpe in your rankings?
c.c. The Padres do this a lot: trade for big names. Will it work this time? The last I looked, they were in the same division as the Dodgers.
7.Shota Imanga has looked better than Yamamoto this spring. It had to said.


Segment 2 – Updating Tim’s Rankings

First Base
1.I’d move Rhys Hoskins up ahead of Sal Perez. He’s having a good Spring.
Second Base
1.Drop Tommy Edman down below Gavin Lux. The wrist isn’t coming around and he is starting the season on the IL. It could turn out to be a long-term issue.
2.Drop Zach McKinstry down into the 30’s. He won’t be a full-time bat.
3.Drop Jonathan India down.
4.Move Brendan Rodgers up into the mid-20’s.
5.Joey Ortiz at #65 moves up into the high 20’s with the trade to Milwaukee.
6.Drop Taylor Walls down. Starting the season on the IL.
Third Base
1.Drop Noelvi Marte. A reserve pick in 15-team ReDrafts.
2.It looks like the Joey Ortiz trade bumps Tyler Black down the board, as it should.
3.Colt Keith should slide up a few slots.
Shortstop
1.Oneil Cruz has to move up.
2.Jackson Merrill has to move up as it looks like he’s making the Padres as the CF.
3.Masyn Winn and Brice Turang should be bumped up.

The following players are discussed:
1. Wyatt Langford (Tex)
2. Parker Meadows (Det)
3. Evan Carter (Tex)
4. Kyle Manzardo (Cle)
5. Colt Keith (Det)
6. Bryan Rocchio (Cle)
7. Nolan Schanuel(LAA)
8. Jackson Holliday (Bal)
9.Junior Caminero (TB)
10. Nick Nastrini (CHW)
11. Darrell Hernaiz (Oak)
12. Colton Cowser (Bal)
13. Ceddanne Rafaela (Bos)
14. Chase DeLauter (Cle)
15. Curtis Mead (TB)
16. Brooks Lee (Min)
17. Jackson Jobe (Det)
18. David Festa (Min)
19. Bryan Ramos (CHW)
20. Justyn-Henry Malloy (Det)
21. Will Warren (NYY)
22. Clayton Beeter (NYY)
23. Jonny Deluca (TB)
24. Orelvis Martinez (Tor)
25. Justin Foscue (Tex)
26. Chase Hampton (NYY)
27. Jack Leiter (Tex)

Segment 1 – Breakdown of Tim’s Tout Wars Team
Segment 2 – Overreacting to Spring Training Stats (What do we make of it)
1. Miguel Andujar (OF, Oak) – 10 for 23, 4 HR, 10 RBI, .435/.458/.957
2. James Wood (OF, Was) – 9 for 24, 3 HR, 6K/6BB., .375/.500/.750
3. Wyatt Langford (OF, Tex) – 7 for 23, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 9K/4BB, .304/.414/.826
4. Henry Davis (C, Pit) – 6 for 18, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5K/2BB, .333/.381/.833
5. Colton Cowser (OF, Bal) – 6 for 15, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 6K/3BB, .400/.550/1.000
6. Ryan Bliss (OF, Sea) – 7 for 18, 3 SB, .389/.450/.444
7. Ismael Munguia (OF, SF) – 9 for 13, 2 HR, 4 SB, .692/.714/.1.154
8. Tylor Megill (RHP, NYM) – 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 HR, 13K/2BB
9. Ryne Nelson (RHP, Ari) – 8 IP, 9 hits, 3 ER, 12K/1BB
10. Jhony Brito (RHP, SD) – 8.1 IP, 9 hits, 3 ER, 10K/0BB

Fantasy Baseball Live – March 10, 2024

Segment 1 - News and Notes
1.Noelvi Marte gets suspended for 80 games to start the season after testing positive for a BAN PED. Given the length it takes to test, I’m wondering if he tested positive last season.
a.When sports leagues try to convince us that PEDs are out of their league, it seems like they are more hopeful or just trying to convince us that their product is clean. Your thoughts…is Marte an anomaly or just a young kid who got caught?
b.Break down the infield for the Reds to start the season.
2.It appears that Mookie Betts will gain SS eligibility after the Dodgers moved Gavin Lux to second with concerns about his ability to make the throw.
a.I know we people get excited about what Ohtani can do, but moving from the outfield back to shortstop after not playing there for years is pretty impressive. I’m not sure fans have a true appreciation for this.
b.Given this news, would you give pause to drafting Gavin Lux as a sleeper? It's not the lack of SS eligibility, but it appears he is not completely healthy.
3.Tommy Edman will start the season on the IL. Dylan Carlson gets another life. What about Victor Scott II?
4.Joey Votto signs a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. Any interest?
5.Nathaniel Lowe will start the season on the IL. It looks like Justin Foscue will get a chance. Also, this might give more confidence that Wyatt Langford will come North with the team. Although he’s been a monster this spring, keeping him down would be tough to do. Your thoughts?
a.What happens when Lowe returns?
6.Fascinating article this week in the Athletic from Rangers head physician Dr. Keith Meister (he’s the inventor of the brace elbow surgery). His position is that many of the injuries occurring with pitchers are now just not velocity, but the expanded use of sweepers and power change-up (turbo change-up). I surmised that added horizontal movement from sweepers would tax the arm, but the power change-up was something I had not considered. He said it came a lot from how hard the player had to squeeze the ball. When you look at the pitchers with the highest change-up velos, it’s a little scary.
7.Lucas Giolito has a UCL tear and is getting a second opinion, but TJS looks likely. This will be his second.
8.Mason Black could be start the season in the Giants rotation. Any interest?

Segment 2 – Outfield Sleepers – Please have five or so.
1.Jaren Duran (OF, Bos, ADP=167) – When I did my targets in December, his ADP was 200
2.Henry Davis (OF, Pit, 295) – When I did my targets in December, his ADP was 441
3.Riley Greene (OF, Det, 163) – He’s looking increasingly like he’ll start the season with full-time at-bats. Hits the ball hard with speed. Step up?
4.Dylan Crews (OF, Was, 570) – Yes, Wyatt Langford could be a monster, but people are forgetting about Crews and he’s free in drafts
5.Chase DeLauter (OF, Cle, 669) – He’s better than Ramon Laureano. Look for him in the second half.
6.Andy Pages (OF, LAD, 747) – I love the setup here despite no room at the inn.

The following players are discussed:

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, LAD)
2. Noelvi Marte (3B, Cin)
3. Jackson Chourio (OF, Mil)
4. Michael Busch (1B, CHC)
5. Maysn Winn (SS, STL)
6. Jung Ho-Lee (OF, SF)
7. Shota Imanaga (LHP, CHC)
8. Joey Ortiz (3B, Mil)
9. Kyle Harrison (LHP, SF)
10. Marco Luciano (SS, SF)
11. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC)
12. Gavin Stone (RHP, LAD)
13. Dylan Crews (OF, Was)
14. Tyler Black (3B, Mil)
15. Paul Skenes (RHP, Pit)
16. Jordan Lawlar (SS, Ari)
17. James Wood (OF, Was)
18. Jackson Merrill (OF, SD)
19. Jared Jones (RHP, Pit)
20. Andy Pages (OF, LAD)