Contributor(s): Professor Helen Milner | In this lecture, Helen Milner addresses why vulnerability, lived experience, and material self-interest will drive the next phase of climate politics, and what that means for diplomacy, democracy and development.

In Fault Lines: The New Political Economy of a Warming World, Alexander F Gazmararian and Helen V Milner show how rising temperatures carve a stark divide around the 35th parallel, separating “damage zones” that stand to lose livelihoods and growth from regions that may even gain. This emerging “climate fault line” is already reshaping public opinion, business lobbying and state strategy, forging new coalitions below the line while stiffening resistance above it. This distributive clash—within countries and across borders—will decide whether decarbonisation accelerates or stalls.