The most likely November election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World War II, the president’s party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. 

The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating (42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (44%-42%), and more than twice as many Democrats retiring from the House as Republicans (29-13).

But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Maybe they can win the midterms.

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