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A growing number of Federal Reserve officials worried the Iran war could further stoke inflation and wanted to make clear following their March meeting that the central bank may have to consider raising interest rates.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington, showed policymakers wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, and the policy reactions that might follow.
Most officials worried a protracted war could hurt the labor market and warrant lower interest rates. At the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases.

Officials in the latter camp appeared to become more strident, urging their colleagues to consider adding language to their post-meeting statement that raised the scenario of hiking rates under certain conditions.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes said.
Echoing those concerns, the minutes noted the “vast majority” of officials thought it may take longer to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal.

At the meeting, officials held the Fed’s benchmark policy rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at that gathering.

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• Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist and Head of US Economic Research
• Dr. Ed Husain, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
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