April 03, 2023

FedWatch 138 - Why Aren’t Markets Crashing?

1 hour 2 minutes

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought and try to form new understandings. In each episode, we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

Find all associated charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed138

In this episode, we discuss the biggest news items in bitcoin and money for the week. It was a bit of a slower news cycle, with people absorbing the bank failures and market movement. How are stocks rallying despite the looming financial crisis? That is the major question we answer in this episode. Expectations for the market and actual market performance are directly conflicting. The most anticipated recession in history will likely not turn out as all those people expect.

There is also a whole lot of talk about the decline of the dollar. Alternatives like settling in Yuan, or forming a whole new currency like a new Gaucho between Argentina and Brazil, or a BRICS currency are all over the headlines. Is this new or normal and we are just noticing it now?

Another topic this week is FEDNOW. We address the controversy surrounding its launch in July. Is it a CBDC? Absolutely not. FEDNOW is a payment rail. It competes with PayPal, not bitcoin or the dollar. This is not the Federal Reserve moving toward a CBDC, it is the Fed offering a payment solution.

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Slide deck

Why are Markets Not Crashing

Emergency FSOC meeting

FSOC meeting readout

FEDNOW could lead to faster bank runs

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