The Treasury declared economic D-Day on Iran the same week traffic through the Strait of Hormuz jumped 400% and Trump announced a deal for 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. None of that is a coincidence.

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In this episode:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Jackson Hole in the rearview and a dressed down August recap

00:00:37 - Treasury's economic D-Day and Operation Economic Outcast

00:02:20 - Secondary sanctions covering digital assets, gold and shipping

00:02:47 - Whether Chinese banks are above the reach of US sanctions

00:05:03 - Sanctions as a way to light up the map

00:05:58 - Hormuz traffic up 400% and a canal being dredged in Oman

00:09:52 - Gas prices and short memories heading into the midterms

00:12:35 - Why Hormuz is a better card to hold than to play

00:13:42 - Venezuela deal for 65 billion barrels of oil reserves

00:17:17 - Pushing China out of the Western Hemisphere

00:18:13 - Druckenmiller's op ed and the entitlements problem

00:20:12 - Yield management and the World War Two analogy

00:24:16 - Why entitlement reform is never going to happen

00:24:55 - Print the difference or redesign the game board

00:27:43 - Trade unions becoming the AI build out's best allies

00:31:29 - A quantum resistant Bitcoin transaction lands on mainnet

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Johann Kurtz returns to TFTC to explain why young people are broke despite rising real wages and falling unemployment. Kurtz and Marty Bent break down the measurement problem buried inside GDP and inflation data, the two-income trap, collapsing home ownership, and the real cost of living in a low-trust society. They dig into social capital, status games, the fertility collapse, and why tight-knit virtue-driven communities still produce large families. A grounded macro conversation about money, family formation, and building a life worth living.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Melody Wright returns to unpack a housing market collapse accelerating faster than 2008. Foreclosure referrals are spiking 150% month over month, FHA delinquencies are climbing past 12%, and multifamily real estate securitizations are showing signs of fraud, mismarked debt, and vanishing capital. Wright and Marty dig into United Wholesale Mortgage's balance sheet troubles, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exposure, private credit stress, commercial real estate maturity walls, and why Bitcoin remains the hedge against a monetary system built on unchecked credit creation.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Matt Dines returns to break down a week of escalating monetary chaos. Scott Bessent doubles the Treasury buyback limit to $4 billion, Stanley Druckenmiller fires a public warning shot in the Wall Street Journal, and the US-Canada trade relationship collapses into 50% tariffs. Matt maps the mechanics behind treasury auctions, yield curve defense, and the offshore dollar's unwind, then connects "Operation Economic Outcast" and Iran's oil smuggling scandal to a broader financial war. Plus tokenized securities, the stalled Clarity Act, the ARMA bill, and what Bitcoin's five-sigma candle actually signaled.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

The Treasury just signaled it will do whatever it takes to hold the long end together, and Bitcoin ripped toward $80,000 about 45 minutes after the headline hit.

🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com

In this episode:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Bitcoin charging toward $80,000

00:01:06 - Bull trap or breakout after months of coiling

00:02:45 - Treasury doubles bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation

00:06:17 - The TGA reportedly on the table to fund buybacks

00:08:42 - A whatever it takes moment with stocks near all time highs

00:11:06 - Who actually buys long end treasuries now

00:12:37 - Underwater bonds and freeing up balance sheet capacity

00:15:34 - Iran, the SPR at 1982 levels and crude stockpiles

00:16:59 - Sneaking oil out of the Strait of Hormuz after dark

00:17:58 - South Korea, Mexico and Canada trade headlines point to China

00:21:46 - Mark Walter, the Lakers sale and private credit's cockroach problem

00:23:28 - How a credit daisy chain could blow up the whole strategy

00:25:45 - World Liberty gets conditional charter approval from the OCC

00:27:38 - Stablecoins and a dollar system that looks pre-1913

00:28:40 - Trump defers on buying significantly more Bitcoin

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Alex Bergeron of Ark Labs joins Marty Bent to unpack the Coldcard exploit, the Boltz shutdown, and what AI-driven attacks mean for Bitcoin self-custody. Bergeron argues the maximalist dogma around trustlessness held back innovation, and that collaborative custody, covenants, and vaults are the path forward. The conversation covers Arkade's smart-signer architecture, spending policies, RFQ intents for Lightning swaps, Bitcoin-backed lending markets, and why he calls it collaborative finance instead of DeFi. Plus: vibe coding, open source models, and whether AI can write secure Bitcoin software.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Chase Koch joins Marty Bent to break down principle-based management, the operating system behind Koch Industries' 86 years and 9,000x growth. Chase explains why he stepped down as president of the fertilizer business after nine months, how comparative advantage and creative destruction shape decisions across 140,000 employees, and why sizing your bets to your knowledge beats chasing quarterly numbers. The conversation covers bottom-up AI adoption, Austrian economics, Federal Reserve overreach, motivation beyond money, and the education entrepreneurs building 5,000 new schools outside a broken K-12 system.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Marty and John dig into the Groundhog Day situation in the Strait of Hormuz, why neither side looks desperate to deal, and what rising Treasury yields with suppressed volatility mean for the standoff. They get into the SPR draining to 40-year lows, Japan's yield curve cracking and the Fed stepping in with yen support, and why the FEMA repo facility matters. They also break down the latest fiscal math, the $500 billion AI buildout coalition led by Nvidia, and the accelerating US-China decoupling across chips and talent. To close, they look at Paul Tudor Jones adding to his Bitcoin position, Abu Dhabi holding pat, and volatility coiling to all-time lows.

🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com

In this episode:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 - Dog days and Hormuz Groundhog Day

00:01:27 - Hormuz blocked and Trump's territorial ambitions

00:02:02 - Iranian factions and sanctions

00:03:25 - Bond yields and the MOVE index

00:05:29 - SPR at 40-year lows

00:07:00 - Japan yield curve and yen intervention

00:09:38 - FEMA repo facility

00:11:07 - July deficit at $432 billion

00:12:36 - Interest expense surpassing defense

00:16:47 - Fed-Treasury accord

00:17:41 - Crypto banking charters and GENIUS Act

00:19:40 - AI buildout and $500 billion coalition

00:22:55 - Manufacturing PMI surging

00:24:46 - US-China decoupling

00:27:21 - Skilled workforce and wage trends

00:29:57 - Elon and midterm turnout

00:30:00 - Paul Tudor Jones and Abu Dhabi Bitcoin

00:30:57 - Bitcoin volatility at all-time lows

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Former Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell breaks down why Trump’s Iran pivot is tanking his populist coalition ahead of the 2026 midterms. The Honest Poll founder exposes rigged polling, GOP donor capture, ballooning deficits, and a housing market on the brink. They dig into Bitcoin as an escape hatch from fiat failure, why Gen Z is flirting with socialism, and how corporate fascism is eating the economy. With interest expense overtaking defense and Democrats poised for a House sweep, Mitchell argues the establishment is failing on every front—from antitrust grift to unchecked mail-in ballot harvesting.

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

Will Harris of White Oak Pastures joins TFTC to break down why industrial agriculture is failing farmers, consumers, and the environment. He explains how regenerative farming rebuilds soil health, sequesters carbon, and produces nutrient-dense beef without feedlots or monocultures. Harris and Marty draw parallels between Bitcoin’s low-time-preference mindset and generational land stewardship, arguing decentralized food systems beat centralized big beef. Learn why meeting your rancher matters more than waiting for government fixes, and how consumer choice drives real change in macro food policy.

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Shoutout to our sponsors:

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Join the TFTC Movement:

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Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures

Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner