• Bitcoin dropped to $106K after a sudden Friday sell-off, triggering panic across crypto markets—but Swan’s team remained calm, stressing the long-term thesis is unchanged.
• John Haar and Isaiah noted that Bitcoin fell just 10% while altcoins crashed 50–90%, underscoring Bitcoin’s liquidity and resilience.
• The team compared the pullback to past cycles, arguing this is not a cycle top but typical mid-bull market volatility.
• Discussion on Fed Chair Powell signaling an end to QT and potential rate cuts—seen as a tailwind for Bitcoin as monetary easing returns.
• John highlighted data showing Bitcoin rose 750% during the Fed’s tightening cycle, disproving the myth that Bitcoin only thrives under easy money.
• A deep dive into the Fed’s balance sheet showed that long-dated Treasury holdings have never decreased since 2008, signaling systemic dependence on debt monetization.
• Chamath Palihapitiya’s claim that quantum computing could break Bitcoin in 2–5 years was debunked—experts and developers agree it’s decades away and Bitcoin can adapt.
• The team explored how AI could reshape the economy, potentially displacing workers and pushing governments toward UBI—but also creating new industries and efficiencies.
• Brady and John debated whether UBI could be socially beneficial or harmful; both agreed Bitcoin offers protection in any fiat debasement scenario.
• The show wrapped with reactions to Larry Fink’s 60 Minutes appearance comparing Bitcoin to gold and Elon Musk’s recent positive Bitcoin comments.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

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Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• The team jokes about “Bitcoin being dead again” after Trump’s new tariff threats against China tanked markets and briefly pulled Bitcoin to $117K.
• They analyze Trump’s tariff negotiation style, calling it political theater and a dip-buying opportunity for “active tariff dip buyers.”
• Discussion on Core V30 debates—Bitcoiners fighting among themselves as a “bear market signal,” contrasting with the historic block size wars.
• VJ Boyapati’s chart shows long consolidation phases in this cycle—evidence of healthier, institutional-driven adoption rather than retail mania.
• Gold hits $4,000/oz, outperforming U.S. stocks; the hosts link gold’s run to the global debasement trade and rising mainstream awareness of sound money.
• John Haar highlights that despite 40-year-high inflation, global debt-to-GDP barely fell, reinforcing the inevitability of fiscal dominance and currency debasement.
• Paul Tudor Jones reaffirms Bitcoin as the “fastest horse,” signaling institutional confidence alongside gold.
• Morgan Stanley opens Bitcoin access to wealth clients—another milestone in mainstream financial adoption.
• Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payment integration for merchants, advancing Bitcoin’s medium-of-exchange use case.
• Discussion closes on Lightning yield experiments (8–9% APY) and Luxembourg’s sovereign Bitcoin purchase, showcasing Bitcoin’s expanding financial utility and global reach.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

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Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• Bitcoin kicks off October pressing against all-time highs near $123,900, setting an exciting tone for Q4
• Recap of BTC in DC at the Kennedy Center, featuring Michael Saylor, Cynthia Lummis, Adam Back, Pierre Rochard, Jeff Booth, Samson Mow, and many more
• Key focus on academia’s role in Bitcoin adoption, with examples from Cornell and GW University partnerships
• PubKey DC discussed as a future hub for staffers, policymakers, and Bitcoiners in Washington
• Macro landscape: global rate cuts (168 so far this year), stimulus check proposals, stagflation concerns, and every major US index hitting all-time highs alongside Bitcoin
• “The Debasement Trade”: JP Morgan recognizes the growing move into Bitcoin and gold as hedges against deficits, fiat debasement, and Fed credibility concerns
• US gold reserves valued at $1.1T highlight the case for a future Bitcoin Strategic Reserve; panelists debate timing, secrecy, and political will
• Discussion on lower Bitcoin volatility as financialization grows, reducing chances of another 80% drawdown and pointing toward steadier climbs
• DCA vs gold: visualization shows $15K invested since 2020 in Bitcoin would be worth $63K today, highlighting Swan Vault and Swan IRA as easy long-term strategies
• Digital Euro and UK digital ID proposals raise serious concerns over freedom and financial control, contrasted with Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and self-sovereignty

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

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• Ben and Jeff break down Strive’s reverse merger and rapid acquisition of Similar Scientific—completed in just four days.
• The deal strengthens balance sheet credit quality, improves leverage capacity, and positions the combined entity for perpetual preferred securities.
• Connection to Vivek Ramaswamy’s background in healthcare and politics creates potential synergies for future spin-offs.
• Bitcoin Treasury Company sector has faced a steep correction, but consolidation may create stronger, scalable firms.
• Ben emphasizes scale—5,000+ BTC balance sheets—as key for accessing institutional preferred markets.
• Treasury companies are experimenting with innovative financing structures (ATM issuance, convertible bonds, perpetual preferreds).
• Discussion on investor psychology: short-termism in equities vs. the long-term thesis of Bitcoin.
• Jeff presents historical math showing 4-year holding periods in Bitcoin and MicroStrategy always produced positive returns.
• Broader economic commentary: mispriced bond risk, housing affordability crisis, and wealth inequality.
• Hosts stress that Bitcoin itself should remain the foundation of portfolios, with treasury companies and credit products as higher-risk layers.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• Fed cut 25 bps; panel debates politics creeping into policy and what it means for risk assets
• Trump nominee Stephen Miran and the floated “third mandate” to “moderate long-term rates” seen as soft yield-curve control
• CPI data quality questioned: imputation/estimates are rising while lived costs outpace headline CPI
• Housing at peak unaffordability; searches for mortgage help, rent trouble, and credit-card stress are surging
• Labor mixed: manufacturing jobs slipping; job openings back near 2019 while S&P hovers near ATHs
• Moody’s recession risk ~48%—yet hosts note policymakers rarely tolerate prolonged market drawdowns
• Panel takeaway: despite macro cracks, being long scarce/risk assets (Bitcoin, equities, real estate, gold) generally wins vs. timing downturns
• Boomers’ home-equity windfall vs. younger generations sparks debate on “corrective” policies/UBI and the role of Bitcoin in restoring fairness
• Bitcoin treasury companies: PIPE unlock overhangs (e.g., Sequans, Nakamoto) create churn, but industry likely broadens beyond MSTR
• Cory Klippsten’s “tranching” frame: packaging Bitcoin exposure into debt/equity slices is pulling new capital into BTC and will scale

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

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Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• The panel opened with reflections on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk and other recent violent events, framing them through the lens of The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe.
• Discussion on how history moves in ~80–100 year cycles of crisis and renewal, with Bitcoin and decentralized protocols potentially forming the backbone of the next institutional order.
• John emphasized perspective, comparing today’s turmoil with past upheavals (1960s, 1970s, World Wars), and highlighted the role of media saturation in shaping perceptions.
• Panelists praised Kirk’s willingness to debate respectfully, lamenting the erosion of open dialogue in society.
• Shifted to macro: China’s gold accumulation as a hedge against dollar hegemony, interpreted as part of a global move toward neutral reserve assets—gold today, Bitcoin tomorrow.
• Deep dive into U.S. financial surveillance: the inefficiencies of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and threats of extending the Patriot Act to digital assets. Panelists argued KYC/AML laws are largely ineffective at stopping crime but very effective at surveilling citizens.
• Highlighted the DOJ’s case against Samourai Wallet as an example of U.S. hostility toward Bitcoin privacy tools.
• Covered this week’s major supply-chain attack on NPM packages, noting minimal impact but using it as a PSA: always verify addresses on hardware wallets and beware phishing scams.
• Tether launched a U.S.-regulated stablecoin (USAT). The panel explored how this intersects with the Genius Act, which would require stablecoin reserves to be in U.S. Treasuries, effectively creating a new forced buyer of U.S. debt.
• Quick hits: MicroStrategy denied S&P 500 inclusion (for now), BLS quietly revised U.S. job numbers down by 900k, Gemini goes public, and Michael Saylor positions MicroStrategy as a “Bitcoin capital markets” play.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

Global long-yield rise vs. easing cycles; fiscal dominance and debt saturation

Fed cuts likely in September; inflation still >2%

Gold performance and the “trust migration” from fiat assets

Harvard endowment signal; Treasury long-bond buybacks funded by bills

Dalio’s “debt-induced heart attack” timeline

Bitcoin seasonality and volatility compression; SOV → MoE arc

Corporate BTC treasuries surpass 1M BTC; possible MSTR S&P 500 inclusion

ARC + Lightning progress; Bitcoin culture (“Killing Satoshi”)

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

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Whales & Long-Term Holders Selling: Profit-taking by OG wallets is redistributing supply. Many are diversifying custody or rotating some BTC into ETFs for margin/borrowing flexibility.

Seasonality Matters: Bitcoin weakness in August/September is common; thin liquidity + vacation season amplify dips.

ETFs as Financial Rails: Institutions and wealthy holders prefer ETFs for cheaper margin rates compared to Bitcoin-backed loans.

Retail vs OG Perspective: Whale trims feel like “dumping” to retail but are natural in Bitcoin’s monetization process.

Global Reserves Shift: For the first time since the 1990s, central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries—de-dollarization in motion.

Fed Politicization: The fight over Gov. Lisa Cook shows growing political pressure on the Fed under fiscal dominance.

Fee FUD Dismissed: Low on-chain fees ≠ security crisis. Dynamic fee markets ensure resilience.

Store of Value vs Medium of Exchange: False dichotomy—Bitcoin functions as both, but its SoV role dominates today.

Bitwise Framework: 2035 scenarios debated: bear $88K, base $1.3M, bull ~$3M. Panel skeptical of the low-end case.

Specter Association Launch: Swan transfers Specter to a new Swiss nonprofit. Yan Pritzker joins the board; roadmap now fully community-driven.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• Lighthearted banter to kick things off—coffee, creatine, and mushroom elixirs fueling the Swan crew
• Market focus: Jerome Powell signals possible September Fed rate cut, sparking a sharp Bitcoin rally to $117K+
• Discussion on short-term market sentiment vs long-term conviction: zoom out, stay focused on fundamentals
• Technical analysis spotlight: Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA crosses $100K for the first time, historically a bullish long-term signal
• Debate over whether Bitcoin will continue classic boom–bust cycles or “grind boringly” upward due to ETF + institutional flows
• Bitcoin seasonality chart reviewed: September historically weak, but October and November deliver strong gains (“Uptober”)
• MicroStrategy revises MNAV guidance on ATM issuance—sparks short-term drama but long-term thesis remains unchanged
• Debate around Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s anti-Bitcoin remarks (“$100 not $100K”) dismissed as stale FUD
• BIS proposal to blacklist “non-KYC tainted coins” sparks discussion on financial surveillance and freedom
• Lighter notes: Bitcoin cameo in South Park, Norwegian sovereign wealth fund adds MSTR/MetaPlanet exposure, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong calls for $1M BTC by 2030

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

• Anniversary reflections: 54 years since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and 5 years since MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase
• Global inflation since 1971: No country has averaged <2% inflation, highlighting why Bitcoin matters as a hedge against fiat debasement
• Nixon’s 1971 speech revisited — false promises of “temporary” suspension and dollar “stability” contrasted with 89% dollar debasement since
• U.S. debt and deficits: July 2025 saw $338B in receipts vs. $630B in spending, underscoring the inevitability of growing debt burdens
• Deep dive: What’s Bitcoin’s greatest threat? Panel discussed regulation, quantum computing, mining centralization, custodian failure, and social consensus challenges
• Rate cuts incoming? Debate around September Fed meeting, with markets pricing an 85% chance of a cut despite hotter CPI prints
• Treasury Reserve: Treasury Secretary Bestyn flip-flops on whether the U.S. will acquire more Bitcoin, fueling speculation about policy direction
• Bitcoin treasury companies: Pubcos now hold 951,000 BTC; Sequans enters the top-25 list with >3,000 BTC in partnership with Swan
• MicroStrategy “Stretch” (STRC): Explained as a variable coupon preferred equity designed to tap bond-like capital pools, offering ~9% returns
• Quick hits: Bitcoin obituary count at all-time lows, Google Play walks back non-custodial wallet ban, UK pushes bizarre “delete emails to save water” advice, and James Chanos misunderstands network effects

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.