Swan Signal Live – Episode Recap (May 17, 2025)
Title: “All-Time High Week: Bitcoin Blasts to $111K, LBE Stocks Surge, and the Debt Train Rolls On”
Guests: Brady Swenson, Alex Stanczyk, Steven Lubka, John Haar (Swan Private)

After a five-month wait since January, Bitcoin breaks through to a new all-time high of $111K.

Optimism surges among the Swan Private team as they reflect on the market momentum and macro backdrop.

Traditional markets remain volatile amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, but Bitcoin shines.

Meta Planet stock surges over 100% in a day, only to drop ~50% the next.

Discussion focuses on the new trend of Leveraged Bitcoin Equity (LBE) stocks:

High volatility

Small float

Potential for massive upside—but also high risk

Advice: Stick with Bitcoin as your core holding; allocate cautiously to LBE stocks if desired, and buy-and-hold long term is still the best strategy.

Update on BTC in DC—Swan is working with George Washington Institute to host a unique policy-focused Bitcoin conference in D.C.

Emphasis on realpolitik: “You can hate politics, but policy will impact Bitcoin adoption.”

Bitcoin values (sovereignty, decentralization) must be reconciled with pragmatic policymaking to enable mass adoption.

UTXO Management + Bitwise estimate $425 billion in institutional Bitcoin inflows by end of 2026.

Segments include public companies, wealth management platforms, sovereign wealth funds, and U.S. states.

Public companies like MicroStrategy and Meta Planet leading the charge; next phase could include giants like SoftBank, Strive, and Tether.

Moody’s downgrades U.S. debt as deficits grow.

Discussion of the “Nothing Stops This Train” meme popularized by Lynn Alden and Luke Gromen.

Takeaway: No administration can or will stop the debt spiral.

Both parties share blame.

Spending is up across the board.

Austerity is politically impossible.

Elon's recent capitulation tweet: “Radical productivity is the only way out.”

Global M2 money supply continues to rise—historically predictive of Bitcoin price surges.

Bitcoin lagged slightly behind M2 but now appears to be tracking it upward again.

Macro picture: Expansionary policy = bullish for Bitcoin.

Texas passes SB 21, establishing the first major U.S. state Bitcoin reserve.

Allows the Texas comptroller to buy and manage Bitcoin—a milestone in public Bitcoin adoption.

Only assets with $500B+ market cap qualify—i.e., Bitcoin only.

Celebrating Laszlo Hanyecz’s historic 10,000 BTC pizza purchase—the first real-world BTC transaction.

Debate sparked by Saylor’s tweet that MicroStrategy used USD to buy their Pizza Day pies.

Hosts argue in favor of spending and replacing Bitcoin:

Drives real-world adoption

Signals demand

Reinforces Bitcoin’s use case as money

Bitcoin ETFs crushing gold ETFs in inflows year-over-year.

Despite institutional barriers and late adoption, Bitcoin has seen ~$40B+ inflows vs gold’s ~$1B in year one.

Huge signal of growing demand and conviction.

Jamie Dimon reverses course: JP Morgan will now allow clients to buy Bitcoin.

After years of criticizing BTC, Dimon’s reversal is yet another mainstream surrender to Bitcoin’s inevitability.

🔗 Join Swan Private – Work with experts like Alex, John, and Steven to build generational Bitcoin wealth.

🎤 BTC in DC – Attend the fall policy summit at the Kennedy Center to help shape Bitcoin’s future in public policy.

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“Colonizing Mars is easier than stopping the debt train. Buy Bitcoin.”

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

1. 500K Bitcoin Predictions & Market Sentiment
The crew discussed the recent wave of bullish sentiment led by industry voices like Adam Back, Bitfinex analysts, and Vibes Capital. Adam Back predicts $500K–$1M this cycle, while Vibes Capital cites $100B in anticipated corporate treasury demand plus potential U.S. government Bitcoin buys. With consistent ETF inflows, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, and support levels holding near $100K, sentiment is peaking.

2. Treasury Demand & Speculative Attack Narrative
MicroStrategy’s playbook is now being followed by a growing list of public firms using debt and equity to acquire Bitcoin. The panel emphasized this as a "speculative attack" on fiat—unlocking Bitcoin exposure for capital pools that can't hold spot BTC directly. With more than 500,000 BTC already under corporate control, the race is on.

3. Coinbase Hack: $400M Fallout
A major hack at Coinbase leaked sensitive customer data (names, addresses, partial SSNs, balances, and IDs). While no private keys were exposed, the breach raised concerns about platform risk. The team praised Coinbase's $20M bounty offer but reiterated the importance of security hygiene and moving to self-custody solutions like Swan Vault.

4. Digital Scarcity & FT Fiasco
Financial Times drew ire for downplaying Bitcoin's innovation, comparing it to teeth. The panel explained how Bitcoin solved digital scarcity using proof-of-work and decentralized consensus. Lynn Alden’s and Pierre Rochard’s responses underscored the persistent misunderstanding from legacy media.

5. Macroeconomics & Treasury Policy
The group reviewed new U.S. spending legislation further widening deficits—echoing the "Nothing Stops This Train" meme. Tariff-driven inflation, CPI surprises, and Walmart’s price hikes were also covered, with mixed views on future inflation trajectories.

6. Global Adoption & Corporate Momentum
Recent sovereign and institutional moves included Chinese and Indian firms acquiring BTC, 21.co’s big buy, and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund adding exposure. Meanwhile, Swan's own CIO Ben Workman emphasized the moral and fiduciary pressure mounting on corporate leaders to explore Bitcoin treasuries.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

In this high-energy episode, Steven Lubka joins Swan Signal Live to discuss the resurgence of Bitcoin, macroeconomic shifts, and the rise of vibes-driven investing. Bitcoin surged over 30% in the past month, breaking above $103K amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a “wait and see” stance from the Federal Reserve. Lubka and the hosts break down how Bitcoin is thriving as both a risk-on asset and a safe haven in a volatile economic environment.

They explore the emergence of leveraged Bitcoin equities — with companies like 21.co, Strive, and BTC Inc. launching MicroStrategy-style acquisition vehicles. Michael Saylor’s use of AI for novel financial instruments, including perpetual dividend products, is also highlighted.

State-level Bitcoin adoption accelerates: New Hampshire authorizes a strategic Bitcoin reserve (up to 5% of state funds), Missouri eliminates state capital gains tax (including for Bitcoin), and Arizona passes limited digital asset legislation. Light-hearted moments include celebrating a Villanova grad becoming the new Pope, and Steak ‘n Shake preparing to accept Bitcoin payments.

From market analysis to memes and sunlight-fueled asset management, the show delivers sharp insights with signature Swan humor and energy.

Macro Environment Update

Bitcoin up over 30% in 30 days, now above $103K.

Fed adopts a “wait and see” stance amid tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Signs of de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and emerging UK trade deals.

The market is reacting positively, with Bitcoin outpacing the S&P 500.

Bitcoin as Dual-Threat Asset

Steven highlights Bitcoin’s unique position as both a risk-on growth asset and a hedge against economic upheaval.

Bitcoin’s performance decoupling from traditional equities is becoming more visible.

Rise of Leveraged Bitcoin Equities

Several entities (e.g., Strive, 21.co, BTC Inc.) launching MicroStrategy-style SPACs and Bitcoin acquisition vehicles.

Michael Saylor’s innovative use of AI for financial engineering detailed in a behind-the-scenes segment.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Adoption

New Hampshire becomes the first U.S. state to authorize a Bitcoin strategic reserve (up to 5% of state funds).

Missouri scraps state capital gains tax (including on Bitcoin).

Arizona’s weaker digital assets fund legislation discussed.

Fun & Culture

Celebration of a Villanova grad becoming Pope.

Steak 'n Shake to accept Bitcoin — potential next corporate treasury candidate?

JD Vance announced as speaker at the Bitcoin 2025 Vegas conference.

Steven Lubka’s upcoming panel: “Bitcoin's Intersection of Health, Wealth, and Sunlight”.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

MicroStrategy’s Vision: A landmark two-hour earnings call revealed MSTR’s intensified strategy, expanding the “21/21 Plan” to a 42/42 Plan, doubling their equity and fixed income issuance goal to $42B each.

Bitcoin Outperforming Tech: BTC has outpaced major tech stocks, decoupling from Nasdaq and S&P 500. The team discusses why Bitcoin is now seen as digital gold, not a speculative tech asset.

The Rise of Bitcoin Treasuries: MSTR's creative debt and equity strategies — including STRIKE and STRIFE — aim to unlock trillions in institutional capital. Saylor’s push for credit ratings could supercharge access to global fixed income markets.

Macro Analysis: John Haar explains why traditional valuations in tech are maxed out, while Bitcoin remains undervalued and insulated from trade tensions and sovereign risk.

Bitcoin as Outside Money: Steven Lubka shares a historical lens on Bitcoin reintroducing the “outside option” — a true escape from politically controlled fiat systems.

Nation-State Game Theory: The panel contemplates how Bitcoin fits into sovereign strategy and why it’s becoming an unavoidable discussion in geopolitics and macroeconomics.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

Main Topics:
This week’s episode of Swan Signal Live delivers a powerful mix of Bitcoin analysis, macroeconomic insights, and a dose of Swan-inspired creatine meme lore. The team dives into the ongoing “creatine craze” sparked by Brandon Quittem, which made waves even at institutional events like the Bitwise conference. Then it's all business—Bitcoin’s 10K+ weekly price rally is dissected, especially in contrast to traditional markets like the S&P 500, which are still reeling.

The conversation intensifies as the hosts break down a pivotal speech by Bessent from the Trump administration on reforming global financial institutions and pushing back against IMF “mission creep.” The big picture? A strategic reordering of the global monetary system with Bitcoin emerging as a vital asset in this uncertain landscape.

Key Insights:

Bitcoin has decoupled meaningfully from traditional assets, outperforming the S&P 500 amid macro turbulence.

The Trump pivot—marked by a shift from Lutnick to Bessent—may have sparked the current market rebound.

Twenty One Capital’s emergence, backed by Tether and SoftBank, positions it as a major MicroStrategy competitor, validating Sailor’s playbook and possibly fueling institutional FOMO.

Fascinating discussion on post-halving Bitcoin cycles and how macroeconomic forces now overshadow supply-driven patterns.

A sci-fi-tinged look at the future of human and AI integration, ethics, and the value of Bitcoin in an increasingly weird and tech-driven world.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

Macro Markets Update: John Haar notes markets have stabilized this week after recent volatility, driven largely by significant global trade and monetary reforms initiated by the Trump administration. Haar emphasizes the complexity and potential hurdles these reforms face, including public perception and economic disruptions.

Global Trade and Tariff Impacts: Discussion on the administration's rapid tariff policy adjustments, the potential impacts on equities and treasury yields, and the need for clearer policy direction to sustain market confidence.

Bitcoin Market: Steven Lubka and Jason Bassett highlight Bitcoin's relative strength despite broader market turbulence. Liquidity conditions and potential governmental Bitcoin purchases could significantly drive price appreciation.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: The panel debates the Fed's stance on inflation and interest rates, criticizing Jerome Powell’s historically reactive policy decisions. They argue tariffs aren't inherently inflationary beyond a one-time price adjustment, suggesting the Fed should consider rate cuts.

Bit Bonds and Bitcoin Integration: Exploration of "Bit Bonds," proposed Bitcoin-linked government bonds. While appealing conceptually, the panel agrees widespread adoption faces significant hurdles, particularly for sovereign issuers, but may hold potential for corporate or local government entities.

Bitcoin Mining and Environment: Addressing ongoing misinformation, the panel highlights Bitcoin mining's environmental benefits, especially methane capture at gas flaring sites.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

In this episode, the Swan team dives into the week’s tumultuous markets, triggered by escalating tariff tensions between the US and China. With sweeping tariff announcements initially roiling equities, a sudden pivot by the administration briefly stabilized stock prices—yet concerns remain about stress in market “plumbing,” particularly negative swap spreads and rising bond yields. The discussion highlights how quickly financial conditions can shift, forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand toward potential liquidity measures or yield curve control.

On the Bitcoin front, the hosts note that BTC’s performance has diverged notably from equities and other risk assets, signaling that institutional involvement—and global macro uncertainty—may be ushering in a new era for Bitcoin. They also explore rumors of Russia and China conducting energy trades in BTC, plus the potential of a US “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” as nation-states weigh the benefits of a neutral reserve asset.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

This week’s Swan Signal Live unpacks a major market anomaly: on a day when the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold all dropped sharply, Bitcoin stayed strong—even ticking up. The team explores whether we’re witnessing the early stages of a true decoupling, as more voices from TradFi, including Joe Weisenthal and Larry Fink, acknowledge Bitcoin’s resilience.

They also dive into Trump’s new tariff strategy, branded “Liberation Day,” raising questions about trade math, inflation, and how tariffs could play into broader economic negotiations. While some call the plan misguided, the crew sees it as a blunt but intentional negotiation tactic—one that may pair with interest rate cuts to boost markets before the midterms.

The show also calls out Galaxy Digital’s shady Terra Luna dealings, with Novogratz dumping $100M worth of Luna while publicly promoting it. It’s a clear reminder of why Swan stays Bitcoin only—to protect investors from altcoin pump-and-dumps.

On Jack Dorsey’s claim that Bitcoin will “fail” if it doesn’t become a medium of exchange, the team pushes back. Bitcoin is following a natural monetary evolution: first a collectible, then a store of value, and eventually, a medium of exchange—driven not by consumers, but businesses who want to be paid in Bitcoin.

Finally, they react to Tom Lee’s $150K BTC prediction by year-end. Some see it as a floor, not a ceiling—especially if the U.S. adopts the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

In this power-packed Swan Signal Live episode, the team unpacks one of the most explosive corporate Bitcoin developments since MicroStrategy: GameStop’s $1.3 billion raise—possibly growing to $1.5B—for “general corporate purposes”… and potentially Bitcoin.

Ben Workman breaks down why this move makes strategic sense and how GameStop could become the second-largest public holder of BTC, right behind MicroStrategy. The crew explores what this means for corporate adoption, meme stock mania colliding with Bitcoin, and the critical importance of “showing, not telling” when it comes to deploying capital.

Key themes include:

• The macro impact of corporate treasury adoption, especially if GME commits fully.
• Why retail investor overlap between Bitcoin and GME could amplify the movement.
• Lessons from MicroStrategy’s playbook: leverage, conviction, and media transparency.
• The psychological and market hurdles still to clear—skepticism remains until GME acts.
• Why the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is still in the “show me” phase—and why that might not last long.
• Sober thoughts on youth disillusionment, inflation, and why Bitcoin remains a beacon of hope.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.


 

In this high-energy episode of Swan Signal Live, the team dives into an action-packed week of Bitcoin and macro news. Steven kicks things off celebrating a hard-fought victory in Bitcoin Bugle’s “March Maxi Madness,” but the real meat of the show comes with analysis of the Fed’s dovish tone, Trump’s tariff plans, and growing signals of U.S. Bitcoin accumulation.

Key Topics Covered:

• Fed Meeting Recap: John Haar lays out the Fed’s latest economic projections, highlighting Powell’s repeated emphasis on “uncertainty.” Despite fears of recession, the Fed held steady, signaling potential cuts while factoring in retaliatory tariffs.
• Tariff Strategy & Trump’s Playbook: Steven and Brady explore Trump’s “Liberation Day” narrative, arguing that tariffs are part of a broader negotiation strategy. Steven suggests markets may have overreacted—and that April 2 could bring upside surprises.
• Bitcoin’s Unshaken Fundamentals: Despite market choppiness, the Bitcoin network is stronger than ever—rising M2, resilient hash rate, and clear bullish signals from Washington, including Bo Hines’ statement: “We’re going to acquire as much Bitcoin as we can.”
• Why Isn’t Price Reflecting Fundamentals? The crew breaks down the disconnect: low institutional belief in government Bitcoin strategy, short-term correlation with traditional markets, and investor misunderstanding of BTC’s long-term value.
• New MicroStrategy Product (STRF): John explains the latest yield-bearing financial instrument from MicroStrategy, tailored for conservative investors. It shows how Sailor continues innovating to acquire more BTC using creative capital market tools.

Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private.  
 

Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.

Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.