On this episode of Explaining Brazil, Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, talks with James Green, a historian at Brown University, about the fracturing landscape of Brazil's 2026 presidential race.

Much of the conversation turns on Flávio Bolsonaro, whose campaign has been undone largely by its own missteps. Once the front-runner, the senator is now locked in a public feud with his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, that has cost him support among conservative and evangelical women. Ribeiro and Green examine how that rupture — compounded by his appeals for Washington to intervene against looming trade tariffs — has drained his political capital.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, meanwhile, is extending his lead by staying out of the fray. But the episode looks past the horse race to slower shifts underneath it.

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