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On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu  cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanctions are likely to continue, allowing Iran to export around 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude. Trump would likely tighten sanctions, potentially reducing Iran's exports, once again,  below 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d). As for Venezuela, limited changes are expected under either administration. However, Trump might be more supportive of oil sector activities, possibly benefiting companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela.

For Russia and Ukraine, Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s stance of supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Whilst Trump might be able to broker a solution with Russia, which could possibly lead to the lifting sanctions, allowing more Russian oil to enter global markets.

Harry, Martha and Vincent also discuss U.S. relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whilst both parties support Israel, Trump is seen as having stronger influence over Israel and could broker regional peace talks more effectively.

And as for Saudi Arabia, Trump may have an easier path to re-establish relations and secure increased oil production, whereas Harris may adopt a critical stance.

As for U.S.-China Trade Policy, both candidates hold firm stances on trade with China, but Trump is expected to pursue more aggressive tariffs, which could lead to lower economic growth and thus, weaker global oil demand. 

Finally, Harry, Martha and Vincent discuss domestic oil and gas policy. Trump is likely to reduce regulations, promote energy independence, and encourage oil infrastructure expansion, whilst Harris is expected to focus on energy transition policies, potentially slowing U.S. oil and gas production growth through regulatory constraints.

Overall, the episode suggests that the U.S. presidential outcome will have extensive repercussions for oil supply, international alliances, and the global energy market, with each candidate presenting sharply contrasting strategies.

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This episode of Macro Mondays was recorded at 4:30pm GMT on Friday, the 1st of November.

On today's episode, James Todd is joined by Research Analyst Will Cunliffe - as James Brodie is travelling - to dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. They discuss whether we're seeing an unwinding of the "Trump trade" as gold and the S&P 500 opened weaker on Thursday, 31st October. 

We're seeing mixed data out of the US, with a mix of increased consumer confidence and disappointing non-farm payrolls. In the US, corporate spreads are also falling; ICE Bank of America high yield OAS spreads are the smallest they've been since 2005.

Gold saw its worst drop since July, and we're seeing mixed earnings among companies with Amazon and Tesla looking strong but Microsoft looking disappointing. Brent, meanwhile, rallied over Middle East concerns.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Beijing to join Harry, Ed, and Will. The team dive into key market developments over the past week, including movements in the Chinese economy and updates on Chinese demand forecasts. They also explore how people will be trading as we enter US election week - and what the risks are. Finally, they look at geopolitical risk, including the current situation between North Korea and South Korea.

In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies - from fluctuating geopolitical risk, to upcoming OPEC decisions, an uptick in physical demand, and more. 

Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Matt Aspin, Onyx Graduate Recruitment Lead, for a special episode of the CEO's Address to explore the generational shift in the industry - and within Onyx - as new graduates join.

Matt gives insight into the evolution of the graduate job market, from pre-pandemic to current day. He and Greg discuss what Onyx looks for when hiring graduates, and the unique opportunities Onyx provides - given they fit the rigorous culture and company mission. However, not just one type of person succeeds at Onyx; Matt and Greg analyse what qualities have made employees successful and which qualities Matt looks for in candidates.

In terms of a new generation entering the industry, Greg and Matt give their observations and opinions on "Gen Z" stereotypes in the work force. Given the major technological shifts in recent years, they touch upon the desire for technologically-literate trading candidates and how trading roles will expand in the near future. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 29th October, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market. 

In this week's episode, Harry, Mita and Vincent discuss recent disruption in the oil market due to Israel's strike on Iran over the weekend. They analyse how Israel conducted the aerial strike - and what this means for the wider geopolitical situation and its impact on the market.

With the market's focus returning to macroeconomics, the team discuss recent developments concerning the world's largest economies - China and the US, and their implications for oil demand and prices. Mita dives into the product of the week: high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), where the front-month crack recently reached all-time highs. Finally, Mita, Vincent and Harry give their Brent forecasts for the remainder of Q4 and discuss what they'll be looking out for in the coming week.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play. 

Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays.

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems.

The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 22 years. 

James and James dive into the complexities of the US election, exploring the potential economic impacts of a "Trump trade" scenario. Betting markets suggest a 62% chance of Trump winning, which could lead to increased tariffs and reduced Fed independence, driving inflation upwards to as much as 9.3% by 2026 (according to projections from the Peterson Institute for International Economics). We'll keep a close eye on these developments as we near election week.

The Eurozone, meanwhile, is facing weak manufacturing and service PMIs - especially in France and Germany. Dovish comments from ECB officials underscore concerns over stagnation in the German economy, with hints at future rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s ruling party has lost its majority, and the IMF anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually raise rates, while China deals with record local debt defaults amid demographic challenges and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs.

The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market. 

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, and Will dive into key market developments affecting energy, commodities, and the broader global economy. They discuss the recent volatility in the Dated Brent benchmark following the inclusion of WTI, and how this shift is creating discrepancies between physical and futures markets. They also explore concerns raised by Saudi officials about oil price trends and the disconnect between different market indicators - highlighting the persistence of volatility.

 The team addresses U.S. politics and the impact of the upcoming election, particularly the potential economic consequences of a Trump victory. Jorge, Ed and Will also discuss the impacts of record-breaking debt levels, surging gold prices, and investor sentiment in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Wrapping up, they touch on the challenges faced by refineries, the potential for increased oil exports from China, and what's going on in benchmarking.

In this episode of Oil Insights, Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping market sentiment and driving volatility as the week progresses.

Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including a possible Israeli strike on Iranian military assets, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.

Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tension - particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including the extent of the future Israeli strike on Iran, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.

#Geopolitical #Risk #speculativeshift #Israel #Iran #Military #Oil #oott #oilmarkets 

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.
 
They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.
 
In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.
 
As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
 
Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800.