Flux News

The Officials are back to discuss the latest market developments in the past week. You can also read The Officials latest report What goes up must come down, says wise ops guy here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-goes-up-must-come-down-says-wise-ops-guy/
This week, the API showed crude inventories going up by 5.2/million bbl. Upon the APIs release, there was almost no reaction in flat price to the huge inventory drop. As the market received this 'bullish' inventory data the market did nothing at all. Jorge asks, was that the right decision or the wrong decision? But then the EIA released data showing a 'bearish' 1.36 million bbl increase, and then the market fell by 30 cts in two minutes. So, what is the data to trust? Who from and when? 

But other data is equally conflictive and companies are making important decisions on data that seems faulty.

 We hope you enjoy our fourth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque, the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe. 

If you would like to connect with them on LinkedIn, please click on the links below: 
Jorge Montepeque  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Vincent Wu https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Will Cuncliffe https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/

Greg Newman, Group Chief Executive of Onyx Capital Group, launches the new podcast, CEO Breakdown.

In today's episode, Greg dives into the myriad of changes happening at Onyx right now - including gearing up for the launch of Onyx Markets to provide retail investors with transparent access to the oil swaps market , as well as more educational resources through new Onyx shows and podcasts.

He delves into the intricacies of the oil industry, from market infrastructure and regulation to industry trends and challenges.

If you’d like to get involved with the podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.

You can connect with Greg on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/

#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading 

Welcome to the pilot episode of Oil Insights, hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu, Research Associates at Onyx.

The oil market has been on a wild ride in the past week and change, selling off violently amidst unwinds in other classes, notably FX and the Yen carry trade. The risk-off mood across risky assets did, however, stabilise, with oil back above $80/bbl. The VIX index, the volatility indicator of the S&P 500, a measure of nervousness, has retraced more than half of its spike of 5 August, indicating some of the jitters of last week have subsided, even as more position unwinds are expected, albeit smaller in amount now.

Onyx's CTA net positioning model indicates that short positions have potentially ‘bottomed out,’ signalling a return to an uptrend. CFTC data highlights that short positions remain exceedingly high in Brent futures, with shorts increasing at the fastest pace since the post-OPEC meeting. The long-to-short ratio in Brent is currently at 1.09:1.00, placing it in the 1st percentile—a level not seen since March 2020.

Additionally, we’re observing significant refiner selling across September, October, and the September/October DFL period, with fund selling in August/September DFL. In the CFD market, our data suggests that last week’s buying flows have transitioned into selling. While September’s structure has been well supported, the rally may have peaked at these levels, leading to profit-taking flows.

Rather than delving into a single story for our Googling Oil segment, the research team focuses on a prevailing theme in the oil market: the growing mention of Iran in numerous articles, driven by resurgent geopolitical tensions. 

Over the weekend, Iran reiterated its intention to retaliate against Israel amidst a buildup of US military assets in the Middle East, including F22 fighter jets and a submarine equipped with guided missiles. As Martha explains, the last time we witnessed a similar scenario was in mid-April. During that period, we observed a range-bound price action lift leading up to an attack, a two-week delay and then a relaxing in crude futures.

This week's most interesting product is gasoline, with the summer driving season entering its final weeks. The weekly US data may underestimate demand, but the money managers are extremely short. The market seems vulnerably short, but will there be a spark to drive it higher?

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment and subscribe to our YouTube channel, the World of Oil Derivatives.

 Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Introduction
0:54 This week in the oil market
3:29 Brent Futures
8:26 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
20:31 Product of the week: gasoline
27:27 Concluding remarks

Macro Specialist James Brodie and Direct Trader James Todd weigh in on the macro markets’ moves over the past week on the back of the data released last week including central bank rate hikes and cuts, U.S. ISM manufacturing and serviced data and U.S. employment data.
U.S. employment data was weak, with only 114000 jobs created in July and unemployment sitting at 4.3%.
Japan also had its biggest crash in stocks since Black Monday of 1987 with the repercussions of this affecting the Korean market as well.
Looking to commodities; Copper is trading at its lowest level since March, with Hedge Funds having their biggest net-short position on commodities in 13 years and Gold support at 2,380 and resistance at 2,468.
James and James discuss the recent sharp sell-off of Bitcoin and China heading into deflation.
The key data to look out for this week is;
Tuesday; US PPI, Japan CPI & PPI, UK wage growth
Wednesday; US CPI
Thursday; US jobless claims, Philly Fed, retail sales, Japan GDP, UK GDP
Friday; US consumer sentiment, UK retail sales
 
#Bitcoin #Japan #Japanesestock #stockcrash #Korea #unemployment #employment #macro #macronews #finance #SP500 #inflation #deflation

It's been a very serious week. Japan had a major collapse on Monday, with Nikkei coming off by 12% overnight - which has been the worst day of index since 1987. The Nikkei moved into a loss position after significant gains this year. The outlook wasn't good for Japan, and this extended into Korea, who remained tight-lipped about their trading books and personal holdings.
 
The Officials discuss the reason for the collapse and its subsequent effect on the market.
 
You can read The Officials latest published report here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-da-fish-is-going-on/
 
We hope you enjoy our fourth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque, the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Harinder Sandhu and Will Cunliffe.

In this episode of the Onyx Leadership Series, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian discusses lessons from throughout his career, the evolution of oil analysis, Onyx's future, and more. 
 
Extend your analysis of oil derivatives with OTC oil swaps insights and enhance predictive accuracy using Onyx’s new Commitment of Traders Market Positioning Dataset.

You can watch more Onyx Leadership Series podcasts here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk7gPO6iMwPPlHVSXp09iLLN

Join us for the third episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe. 

The link to our latest publication of The Officials, can be found here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-geopolitics-vs-economics/

Last week, we were caught in a very bearish week in the market, and the Officials predicted we would most likely hit $75/bbl and $78/bbl…. And we did, within days.  

The reason we were mostly bearish last week was down to global macros, which waded down the market heavily, hitting serious lows of $78/bbl after an attack on the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

What the Officials are observing is the market is reacting quickly and strongly to Macro economic data. Jorge Harry, Will and Vincent analyse why. 

After working as a performance psychologist for Premier League players, F1 drivers, and more, Chris Gooder joins Onyx as Performance Director. Viewing trading as the closest thing in business to elite level sports, Chris talks with Group CEO Greg Newman about the behaviours, motivations, and psychological patterns common amongst successful individuals.
 
The two discuss the reality that people aren't machines - even if their role depends on them performing like one. That's where Chris steps in, to provide one-to-one, day-to-day support and development for Onyx Traders so they can feel and perform their best in a high-intensity environment. Tune in to hear their full conversation.
 
If you'd like to connect with Greg or Chris on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Chris Gooder: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-gooder-6008b9141
 
Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction
1:01 Chris' background and transition from elite sports to Onyx
12:19 Trader mentality and motivation
17:55 Benefits and dangers of success; individual vs. group dynamic
25:55 Chris' background working with F1, Arsenal, and more
29:33 What makes a successful performer & work as an escape
35:59 Setting the tone for a work environment; the importance of failure
41:55 Chris' role at Onyx; shaping Onyx culture
49:22 What makes a good trader
54:33 Closing thoughts

#leadership #success #motivation #careers #advice #performance #performancepsychology #management #HR #psychology #F1 #formula1 #premierleague #football #daytrading #daytrader #trading #oott #oil #oilandgas #derivatives #derivativestrading #business #businessphilosophy #finance #businessstrategy #tech

You’ve read The Officials, now hear it.

Join us for the second episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today.
Find our daily Officials reports at https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-asia-25-07-24/ 

#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #markets #marketanalysis #derivatives #derivativestrading

All of last week, Brent futures were comfortably trading at $85/bbl. Now (at time of recording), they're trading around $82.50/bbl. There is a definite bearish turn to the rangebound wave we were in last week. WTI has seen more bullish interest, and it's just entered negative handles in CTA data. WTI also sold off aggressively on 19th July from  $81/bbl to $78/bbl. Volatility has also risen significantly for both Brent and WTI - especially in comparison to low volatility all year.
 
Overall, refinery margins can be summed up as not bad, but also not good. Primarily driven by the weakness in crude, gasoil cracks gapped up higher by $1 late Monday afternoon. Aug’24 gasoil cracks were up from $18.50/bbl to $19.30/bbl.
 
Interestingly, the market for naphtha - which is a market most suspectable to geopolitical concerns - has been strong. Butane margins have also risen significantly. The increase in profitability comes from a more significant US butane demand.
 
Looking to macro femands and the One to Watch; China Central Bank's actions have been interesting. China’s PBOC central bank cut rate early Monday morning 10bp across the yield curve to try and stimulate growth. Off the back of this, Greg and James discuss if deflation is something we need to be worried about in Europe this year and next.
 
Vincent discuses some key headlines in our Googling Oil segment, including; Russia Considers Building Oil Refinery in Cuba, Slovak PM Blasts Ukraine’s Lukoil Sanctions As Oil Flow Stops and Why Nigerians are praying for the success of a new oil refinery.
 
As for the Trade Idea this week, Vincent suggests going Short brent Dubai.

World of Oil Derivatives is also available on YouTube.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Vincent Wu:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Introduction
0:58 Brent Futures update
05:48 Managed money discussion
7:00 Bullish banks
16:40 Refinery margin update
26:21 Macro demand
40:22 One to watch (key data)
40:50 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
47:38 Trade idea